A Saudi political and security researcher has warned that the United States and Iran could reach an agreement over international shipping in the Red Sea that protects maritime navigation while leaving Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s government exposed to continued threats from the Houthis.
Hisham Al-Ghannam, Director of the Security Research Centre at Naif Arab University for Security Sciences, cautioned that a potential understanding between Washington and Tehran could allow the Houthis to retain their weapons, territorial gains and military capabilities without addressing the broader security challenges facing Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
In a series of posts on the social media platform X, Al-Ghannam described what he called a “top-down maritime deal” as one of the most dangerous scenarios that could emerge from the current regional confrontation.
Under such an arrangement, the United States and Iran could agree to de-escalation measures concerning international maritime navigation alone, without reaching a comprehensive settlement addressing the Houthis’ military position or their ongoing confrontation with the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia.
A Maritime Agreement That Leaves the Houthis Armed
Al-Ghannam warned that an agreement narrowly focused on securing international shipping routes could effectively preserve the Houthis’ existing military and territorial position.
While such a deal might reduce threats to commercial vessels passing through the Red Sea, it would not necessarily prevent the group from continuing to use its military capabilities against Yemen’s government or Saudi Arabia.
“One of the most dangerous possibilities is what I call a top-down maritime deal,” Al-Ghannam wrote.
“Washington and Tehran reach an understanding on de-escalation concerning international navigation only, while the Houthis retain their gains and their weapons remain directed against the legitimate government, the rest of Yemen and the Kingdom.”
His warning reflects concerns that Washington and Tehran could prioritise their immediate strategic interests in maritime security while leaving unresolved the wider conflict in Yemen.
Such an arrangement, he argued, could allow the Houthis to emerge from a regional de-escalation process without surrendering their military advantages or reducing the threats they pose to neighbouring countries.
Al-Ghannam noted that arrangements resembling this scenario had partially occurred in the past.
He stressed that Saudi Arabia must ensure that Yemen’s future is not determined through negotiations that exclude Riyadh and the Yemeni people.
The central priority, according to the researcher, should be preventing what he described as an “incomplete settlement” imposed without meaningful Saudi or Yemeni participation.
Two Factors Could Determine the Future of the Yemen Conflict
Al-Ghannam identified two principal variables that could shape the next phase of the confrontation.
The first is the outcome of the ongoing battles along Yemen’s coastline, where developments on the ground could alter the balance of military power.
The second is the trajectory of the US-Iran war, which could determine whether regional tensions intensify or move towards a broader settlement.
According to his assessment, the most favourable scenario would involve regaining control of the Yemeni coastline alongside a comprehensive regional de-escalation.
Such an outcome could create conditions for political negotiations after the balance of power on the ground had changed.
This scenario differs from the limited maritime arrangement he warned against because it would link regional de-escalation with developments inside Yemen rather than concentrating exclusively on protecting international shipping.
Al-Ghannam’s assessment places particular importance on ensuring that any eventual settlement addresses the military realities of the Yemeni conflict and does not simply freeze the existing balance of power in favour of the Houthis.
Houthi Attacks Aim to Undermine Saudi Arabia’s Economic Confidence
In a separate post, Al-Ghannam examined what he described as the strategic objectives behind continued Houthi attacks targeting Saudi Arabia.
He argued that the attacks are not primarily intended to inflict physical damage on airports, infrastructure or other vital facilities.
Instead, their broader objective is to undermine confidence among international airlines, travellers and investors in Saudi Arabia’s ability to maintain stability and protect its economic infrastructure.
According to Al-Ghannam, the Houthis are attempting to create an enduring perception of insecurity that could persist even after damaged facilities have been repaired.
“The Houthis’ entire focus is on destroying confidence,” he wrote.
“Their primary message is that even if you repair your airports, you will not be able to restore the confidence of airlines, travellers and investors.”
His assessment suggests that the economic and reputational consequences of such attacks could be more significant than the immediate physical destruction.
Airports and infrastructure can be repaired, but restoring confidence among businesses and travellers may present a more complicated challenge.
This makes the perceived reliability of Saudi Arabia’s transport networks and economic environment a central component of the confrontation.
‘Our Battle Is About Confidence and Reputation’
Al-Ghannam emphasised that the confrontation with the Houthis should not be understood solely through the physical damage inflicted on infrastructure.
Instead, he described it as a struggle over Saudi Arabia’s international reputation and its ability to sustain confidence in its economic development.
“Our battle with them now is about confidence and reputation. It goes beyond cement and concrete,” he stated.
The researcher argued that responding effectively requires measures that protect economic activity from the wider psychological and commercial impact of military attacks.
He called for the development of alternative routes to transport corridors threatened by the Houthis, reducing the ability of such threats to disrupt commercial activity.
He also advocated what he described as “smart deterrence”, alongside the continued implementation of Saudi Arabia’s economic and development projects.
Maintaining progress on these initiatives, he argued, is essential to preventing the attacks from achieving their broader objective of damaging investor confidence.
His remarks point to a strategic challenge extending beyond conventional military defence.
For Saudi Arabia, the issue is not only the ability to protect and restore physical infrastructure, but also the capacity to demonstrate that threats and attacks will not undermine the continuity of economic development.
At the regional level, Al-Ghannam’s warnings connect this challenge to the possibility of a US-Iran understanding that secures international navigation while leaving the Houthis’ military position largely unchanged.
Such a scenario, in his assessment, risks creating a settlement that addresses the maritime interests of major powers without resolving the security concerns of Saudi Arabia or the underlying conflict in Yemen.
