The Israeli military is preparing for a potentially devastating earthquake that could cause widespread destruction, leave hundreds dead and thousands injured, and overwhelm emergency services, according to assessments reported by the Israeli newspaper Maariv.
The preparations come as Israel confronts military and missile threats from Iran and other regional fronts, with military planners increasingly treating a major natural disaster as another serious challenge to national emergency preparedness.
Avi Ashkenazi, military affairs editor at Maariv, reported that Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir had included earthquake preparedness among the priorities of the military’s 2027 operational plan.
The decision reflects growing concern over Israel’s vulnerability to a major seismic event, particularly in cities located along the Syrian-African fault system, where older buildings may be unable to withstand severe ground shaking.
Israel Prepares for a Major Earthquake Nearly 100 Years After the 1927 Disaster
According to the Maariv report, Israeli military planners have drawn attention to the country’s seismic history, particularly the deadly earthquake of 1927.
That earthquake struck the region along the Syrian-African fault system, killing approximately 300 people and injuring thousands.
Ashkenazi reported that studies cited by Israeli officials suggest powerful earthquakes may occur in the region at intervals of roughly 100 years.
With the centenary of the 1927 disaster approaching in 2027, Israeli authorities are increasing their preparations for another potentially destructive event.
However, the report acknowledged that earthquakes cannot be predicted with certainty, meaning historical recurrence patterns do not establish when the next major earthquake will occur.
Ten Israeli Cities Identified as Particularly Vulnerable
Israeli authorities have identified ten cities considered especially vulnerable to severe destruction during a powerful earthquake.
The cities are:
- Kiryat Shmona
- Hatzor HaGlilit
- Rosh Pina
- Tiberias
- Safed
- Afula
- Migdal HaEmek
- Beit She’an
- Arad
- Eilat
These cities are situated near the Syrian-African fault system, a major geological structure associated with earthquake activity in the region.
According to the Israeli assessment, their vulnerability is compounded by the presence of numerous older buildings that may not withstand a powerful earthquake.
The potential collapse of residential and other structures presents a particular concern for emergency planners, who anticipate that large numbers of people could become trapped beneath rubble.
Thousands of Casualties and Hundreds of Deaths Feared
Israel’s Home Front Command has developed an emergency planning scenario involving thousands of casualties in the event of a major earthquake.
Officials cited in the report warned that the consequences could be particularly severe in northern areas, where estimates indicate that thousands could be injured, hundreds could die and many more could become trapped in collapsed buildings.
Beyond the immediate human toll, a major earthquake could severely disrupt essential services and the ability of emergency institutions to continue operating.
Israeli officials warned that damage to infrastructure and healthcare facilities could undermine the continuity of medical treatment precisely when hospitals face a substantial influx of casualties.
One official said authorities possess the capability to assess damage immediately after an earthquake occurs, but acknowledged the enormous operational difficulties that would follow a major disaster.
The official also referred to the approaching centenary of the last deadly earthquake, arguing that the available historical statistics justify heightened preparedness.
The assessment, however, does not provide a scientifically reliable date for the next earthquake.
Home Front Command Plans Nationwide Public Awareness Campaign
Israel’s Home Front Command is preparing a large public information campaign to explain earthquake risks and the appropriate emergency response.
According to Maariv, the campaign is expected to begin within weeks and will focus on helping residents understand how to respond when an earthquake strikes.
Military officials emphasised that earthquake preparedness requires a fundamentally different approach from the protective measures used during missile attacks.
Whereas missile defence procedures often involve entering shelters or protected indoor spaces, the earthquake response plan described in the report prioritises evacuating buildings and moving into open areas.
Officials warned that remaining inside vulnerable multi-storey buildings during a major earthquake could expose occupants to serious danger from structural collapse.
The guidance presented in the report emphasises reaching open spaces where this can be done safely, rather than relying on the sheltering procedures commonly associated with rocket attacks.
Israeli authorities are therefore seeking to distinguish earthquake emergency procedures from the missile-related instructions with which much of the population is already familiar.
Nahariya Hospital Conducts Major Earthquake Evacuation Drill
The Israeli military has also begun testing its earthquake response plans through practical exercises at healthcare facilities.
According to Ashkenazi, a hospital in Nahariya was selected to conduct the first practical exercise of the new earthquake response programme.
The hospital, located several kilometres from the Lebanese border, has previously faced rocket attacks and maintains underground facilities capable of accommodating patients during military emergencies.
However, the earthquake exercise required medical teams to implement the opposite approach.
Rather than transferring patients into underground protected areas, the hospital activated its earthquake alert procedures and moved operations outside the building.
Participating medical teams were instructed to evacuate patients into emergency medical tents established in the hospital car park.
The exercise was designed to test how a hospital could continue providing essential treatment while relocating patients and medical services away from potentially unsafe structures.
It also demonstrated the differences between preparing medical facilities for missile attacks and responding to a major earthquake.
All Israeli Hospitals Ordered to Prepare for Earthquake Emergencies
The report revealed that the Israeli military and Ministry of Health had recently activated earthquake emergency directives for hospitals across Israel.
Under the new preparations, hospitals are expected to conduct a series of exercises developed jointly by the military and health authorities.
These drills will examine how medical facilities can evacuate patients and staff to outdoor locations, including car parks, tennis courts and sports grounds.
They will also assess the ability of hospitals to receive and treat large numbers of casualties following a major earthquake.
The planning scenarios include the possibility of tens of thousands of injured people requiring medical assistance, placing considerable pressure on healthcare capacity and emergency response systems.
Authorities are particularly concerned about situations in which hospitals themselves sustain structural damage while simultaneously facing large numbers of patients.
Such a scenario could create serious difficulties in maintaining healthcare services, organising evacuations and providing continuous treatment during the disaster.
Earthquake Could Strike Without Warning
Israeli emergency officials also warned that a major earthquake could occur without sufficient advance warning.
According to the report, studies indicate the possibility of a destructive earthquake in the region, although its timing cannot be predicted.
Officials said the initial shaking could be extremely brief, potentially lasting no more than a minute, leaving residents with limited time to respond.
The absence of reliable advance prediction presents a major challenge for emergency planners, particularly in densely populated areas containing vulnerable buildings.
Ashkenazi compared the consequences of a major earthquake with those of missile attacks, noting that both could produce extensive destruction and casualties.
However, he highlighted a critical difference in preparedness: Israeli society has substantial experience with missile-related emergency procedures, while practical earthquake training has been comparatively limited.
The Home Front Command is consequently preparing to explain earthquake-specific instructions to the public, particularly the importance of avoiding vulnerable buildings and reaching safe open areas when circumstances permit.
When asked how many buildings might collapse during a major earthquake, the Home Front Command commander did not provide a precise figure.
Instead, he warned that many homes would be unable to withstand the impact.
The warning reflects the scale of the challenge facing Israeli authorities as they prepare for a potentially devastating earthquake capable of producing hundreds of deaths, thousands of injuries, extensive structural damage and prolonged disruption to essential services.
