The Middle East is undergoing a profound transformation that is reshaping the region’s alliances and conflicts, as traditional rivalries increasingly give way to calculations centred on security, economic interests, technology and military power.
That is the argument presented by prominent British historian and writer Simon Sebag Montefiore in an article published by the Wall Street Journal. He argues that what is unfolding can no longer be understood as a series of isolated crises, but rather as a growing convergence between geopolitical theatres once viewed as separate, stretching from Ukraine and the Caucasus to the Gulf, East Africa and South Asia.
Montefiore points to a series of developments that he says illustrate the scale of this transformation. Some Arab states have maintained relations with Israel despite regional tensions, while Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have concluded a joint defence agreement modelled on NATO.
According to Montefiore, new alliances are no longer being built primarily around sectarian or ideological identities. The older framework that reduced the region to a Sunni-Shia confrontation or a conflict between the West and Islam is, in his view, giving way to more pragmatic calculations involving security, energy, trade, technology and influence.
New Foundations for Regional Alliances
At the same time, Greece has signed a major defence agreement with Israel, while Ukraine has strengthened its security relationships with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
Israel has also become more closely connected to India, as a wider network of relationships emerges among states that were previously associated with more clearly defined regional blocs.
Montefiore argues that these new alliances are increasingly shaped by strategic interests rather than traditional ideological alignments.
He characterises Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE as representing what he describes as an “open and pro-Western Islamic model”, in contrast with Iran and its allies, which he portrays as representing a more radical and anti-Western model.
Beyond the Boundaries of the Old Middle East
The transformation, however, is not confined to the Middle East in its traditional geographical sense.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has become increasingly connected to the confrontation involving Iran, Israel, the United States and Gulf states, while the war has also reshaped the strategic calculations of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries.
In the eastern Mediterranean, tensions between Turkey and Greece, alongside offshore gas discoveries, have pushed Athens towards an increasingly strategic relationship with Israel as it seeks to counter Turkey’s regional ambitions.
South Asia, according to Montefiore, is emerging as one of the most dangerous arenas in this growing web of geopolitical competition.
Pakistan, which has developed new relationships with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, is seeking to expand its influence through mediation with Iran. India, meanwhile, is deepening its partnership with Israel while maintaining relations with both Iran and Russia.
If revived, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor could add a major economic dimension to these shifting alliances.
East Africa and the Red Sea Enter the Strategic Contest
In East Africa and around the Red Sea, regional conflicts are becoming even more closely intertwined.
Sudan has become an arena of competition among regional powers seeking influence, access to ports, gold resources and agricultural land.
Israel, Arab states, Turkey and Iran are also competing for influence in Somalia, Ethiopia and across the Horn of Africa.
The Red Sea crisis and Houthi attacks on Saudi interests have further raised concerns that the confrontation could expand beyond its current boundaries.
The Sahel and Libya’s Continuing Disorder
Across Africa’s Sahel region, young military-led governments are confronting groups described as “jihadist” organisations in fragile states, while France and Russia compete for influence.
Montefiore warns that the collapse of one of these states could allow such groups to move south towards Nigeria or northwards to connect with the disorder in Libya, potentially threatening the stability of Egypt and the wider region.
For that reason, he argues that even the term “Middle East” may be becoming too narrow to describe the emerging geopolitical reality.
Political, economic and security interactions now increasingly extend into southern Europe, Central Asia, South Asia and East Africa.
The Risk of Separate Wars Merging
Montefiore describes the emerging alliances as flexible and overlapping.
Under this new structure, the Mecca defence agreements, the Abraham Accords and proposed economic corridors linking India, the Gulf and Israel can all exist simultaneously despite the different political agendas behind them.
But the same interconnectedness carries significant risks.
Montefiore warns that the Russia-Ukraine war could eventually merge with the US and Israeli war against Iran, and potentially with any future conflict between India and Pakistan.
He compares such a scenario to what fire scientists call a “flashover”, when several separate fires suddenly combine into a much larger blaze.
If such a process were to occur geopolitically, separate regional crises could converge into a conflict with global dimensions.
Montefiore’s Case for Continued US Primacy
Within this increasingly interconnected system, Montefiore argues that the United States remains the only power capable of managing such a complex network, even though regional governments do not fully trust Washington.
He argues that Iranian attacks on Arab states have pushed many governments to retain the American military presence as a source of protection, while also making Israel, despite its disagreements with those states, more strategically important to them.
Montefiore concludes that the greatest danger is no longer a single conflict inside the Middle East, but the possibility that multiple wars could merge into one much larger confrontation.
From his perspective, that prospect makes what he considers a more balanced and coherent American policy increasingly urgent.
