US officials have revealed that classified documents submitted to Congress contain an assessment by the US intelligence community concluding that Saudi Arabia has not ruled out the possibility of developing a nuclear weapons programme.
The assessment has intensified concerns among some US lawmakers over President Donald Trump’s approval of assistance to Saudi Arabia in establishing a civilian nuclear programme. According to The Washington Post, critics fear the agreement could eventually provide Riyadh with capabilities that could be redirected towards developing a nuclear weapon, potentially accelerating a regional nuclear arms race.
A growing number of Democratic lawmakers have also raised concerns that the agreement could create a pathway for Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium domestically to levels approaching 20 per cent, increasing fears that nuclear material or infrastructure intended for civilian purposes could eventually be diverted towards military use.
Senators Warn of Looser Nuclear Restrictions
A group of Democratic senators led by Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts and Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon raised their objections in a letter sent on Friday to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
“With this deal, the Trump administration is departing from precedent, adopting looser restrictions, and caving to Saudi demands by agreeing to a process that is all but certain to allow Riyadh to acquire the means to enrich uranium and possibly develop nuclear weapons,” the senators said.
US officials who spoke anonymously because of the sensitivity of the security issue said the State Department also provided its assessment in the classified documents sent to Congress last month.
According to the officials, the department appears considerably more confident in the safeguards built into the agreement and in assurances provided by the Saudi government.
Merkley told The Washington Post that Washington should not simply rely on Saudi assurances on an issue of such importance.
“It’s bogus as hell,” he said, arguing that Saudi demands, including the possibility of producing nuclear fuel domestically rather than importing it, suggested an ambition to establish a programme that may extend beyond strictly civilian purposes.
“If they’ve given up the intent to develop a nuclear weapon, then they’d give up domestic enrichment and reprocessing power, right? They’d accept massive inspections from the IAEA,” Merkley added, referring to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Washington Defends the Agreement
The US State Department defended its support for the agreement, telling The Washington Post that the United States “does not and will not support a Saudi nuclear weapon program”.
It said the agreement “reflects a proactive, realistic approach to the need to expand and strengthen nuclear energy cooperation while maintaining the strongest nonproliferation standards diplomatically achievable”. The CIA declined to comment.
Another major concern centres on nuclear inspections.
The agreement does not require Saudi Arabia to join what is known as the “Additional Protocol”, which requires participating states to provide the International Atomic Energy Agency with broader access to facilities and activities throughout the nuclear fuel cycle, including research facilities.
Experts fear that without such inspection powers, the IAEA could have no effective means of verifying whether Saudi Arabia was secretly pursuing a nuclear weapon at undeclared facilities.
A group of 20 nuclear non-proliferation experts, including former IAEA director-general Hans Blix, raised the issue in a letter to Congress this week.
“This should not be acceptable in the case of a country like Saudi Arabia that seeks the capabilities to produce fissile material and has threatened to pursue nuclear weapons,” they wrote.
Mohammed bin Salman’s 2018 Warning Resurfaces
Among the concerns repeatedly cited by experts are remarks made by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2018, when he warned that Riyadh would develop a nuclear weapon if Iran did so first.
“Without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we would follow suit as soon as possible,” Mohammed bin Salman said at the time.
Some Democratic lawmakers have praised the US intelligence community for speaking openly about the possibility of Saudi Arabia developing a nuclear weapons programme, particularly given previous pressure from the Trump administration on intelligence officials whose assessments cast doubt on presidential policies.
Representative Brad Sherman, a California Democrat who has closely reviewed the agreement, said: “The last remnants of truth tellers at the intel agencies are holding on by their fingertips.”
Billions of Dollars in Commercial Interests
Supporters of the agreement argue that US companies would be well positioned to secure lucrative contracts in Saudi Arabia, while the deal could sideline Chinese and Russian competitors and simultaneously strengthen relations between Washington and Riyadh.
The lawmakers’ letter said Westinghouse Electric could earn tens of billions of dollars if the agreement proceeds.
It also said the company’s majority owner is closely associated with Newmark, the real estate company run and partly owned by the sons of US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
The largest obstacle to the agreement, however, may be Trump’s insistence that Saudi Arabia normalise relations with Israel as a condition for completing the deal.
A senior US administration official said the condition remained firmly in place. Analysts cited by The Washington Post, however, consider it unlikely that Riyadh will take such a step while the Israeli government continues to rule out the establishment of a Palestinian state.
