US Vice President J.D. Vance held a series of direct and unusual conversations with senior American military commanders across the Middle East, Europe and Asia during the spring and summer, seeking candid assessments of the war with Iran, according to current and former officials cited by The New York Times.
The newspaper, in a report by Jonathan Swan, Adam Entous and Maggie Haberman, said Vance, who had opposed the war before it began, wanted to hear commanders’ assessments directly before incorporating them into the broader picture being presented to President Donald Trump by the Department of War.
The discussions covered a wide range of issues surrounding the conflict, including operational objectives and tactics, casualty estimates, what Iran might do in the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran’s ability to adapt to US strikes, and the extent of economic sanctions the Iranian government could withstand.
Vance also asked commanders for detailed information about their stocks of critical equipment and munitions, and about how transferring weapons to the Middle East was affecting the ability of US forces in Europe and Asia to deter China, Russia and North Korea.
Commanders were particularly candid, officials told the newspaper, about their concerns over the depletion of Patriot interceptor missiles, which form a central component of US air defence systems.
By late spring, stocks of Patriot interceptors in one theatre had fallen below 100. The war had also depleted that theatre’s stocks of Army Tactical Missile Systems, which have a range of up to 190 miles, as well as Precision Strike Missiles intended to replace them.
Commanders told Vance that stocks of these critical munitions had fallen to unprecedented lows, according to accounts provided by current and former officials who spoke to the newspaper on condition of anonymity.
Growing Concerns Over the War Strategy
According to the officials, Vance emerged from those discussions deeply concerned about the war strategy and the prospects of achieving its objectives.
The assessments painted a picture of an Iran prepared to absorb heavy losses and damage, while the United States faced limited military resources with which to stop Iranian retaliatory attacks and simultaneously respond to threats in other parts of the world.
Vance relayed these assessments to Trump during their private conversations. At the same time, the president was also receiving briefings from Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine about the pressure the war was placing on US weapons stocks and about the nature of Iranian preparations.
The New York Times reported that Trump was initially unconvinced by some of the assessments regarding the constraints facing US forces.
Taken together, the accounts reveal Vance’s effort to obtain a more precise picture of how the war was unfolding, while also raising questions about the nature and sources of the information reaching the US president.
Troubling Private Assessments Behind Public Claims
The newspaper said there was a clear gap between the private assessments Vance was receiving and what senior administration officials were saying publicly.
Trump continued to insist that the United States had won the war, that Iran’s military had been destroyed and that American forces faced no problems with weapons supplies. Vance, meanwhile, recently played down the idea that the United States was involved in a war at all.
Trump repeatedly expressed anger in private meetings over media reports describing declining US weapons stocks and called journalists “traitors” for covering the issue.
Following the reporting, dozens of senior military officers at the Department of War were subjected to polygraph examinations as part of government investigations into leaks involving weapons inventories.
US officials were also concerned that public disclosure of falling stockpiles could expose vulnerabilities to China and Russia, both of which closely monitor American military capabilities.
Vance’s Contacts Were Known to Trump
Officials stressed that Vance’s conversations with military commanders took place with the knowledge of Trump, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, General Caine, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who also serves as national security adviser, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement that Hegseth had worked to give the vice president and other senior White House officials direct access to operational commanders so that the president’s team could receive all available information about ongoing operations in the Middle East.
General Joseph Holstead, a spokesman for Caine, said there was “no gap” in the military advice being provided to the president, vice president and defence secretary.
Vance spokesman Luke Schroeder praised what he described as the vice president’s partnership with Hegseth and Caine, saying Vance regarded them as “indispensable colleagues” in advising the president and supporting his executive decisions.
Tight Secrecy Before the War Began
The New York Times said Caine and Hegseth had restricted planning for the operation before the war began in February to a narrow circle of officers inside the Pentagon and US Central Command, citing operational security and the need to prevent leaks.
That approach excluded several senior officials from planning meetings, including the secretaries of the Treasury and Energy.
The level of secrecy also created confusion among US commanders stationed around the world. Before the war began, some were ordered to transfer specified types and quantities of munitions to Central Command, which oversees US military operations in the Middle East, without being told why.
According to the newspaper, Vance began seeking broader information about the conflict at an early stage. Days after the war began, he told colleagues that he wanted more detailed briefings so he could form his own assessment and provide better advice to Trump.
Caine viewed his role as presenting the president with objective military options rather than promoting any particular course of action.
Vance, by contrast, focused on understanding Trump’s intentions and identifying ways to achieve the president’s objectives while drawing attention to the risks, secondary considerations and potential consequences attached to each option.
Officials familiar with his briefings said Vance was not telling Trump what decision to make. Instead, he sought direct assessments and recommendations from military officers and incorporated what he heard into his advice to the president.
From Opposing the War to Leading Negotiations
Vance’s opposition to the war was no secret inside the White House. In the weeks before 28 February, he argued against the operation during meetings in the Oval Office and the Situation Room, at times frustrating Trump, according to officials who had discussed the matter with the president.
Once Trump decided to go to war, however, Vance publicly defended the decision, including during several tense television interviews.
He later became the most prominent face of the administration’s diplomatic efforts, leading a series of talks that resulted in a memorandum of understanding in June.
The 60-day deadline established for those negotiations expired in August without an agreement. By then, the positions of the two sides appeared further apart than they had been at the beginning of the talks.
A War That Lasted Far Longer Than the Pentagon Expected
According to the newspaper, Trump had not anticipated that the war would last long enough to significantly deplete US weapons stocks.
The president had been optimistic following earlier military operations and was impressed by US-Israeli cooperation in striking Iranian nuclear sites during a 12-day confrontation the previous year. Privately, he expected the Iranian government to collapse within days.
Instead, the fighting continued far beyond the six weeks Pentagon planners had initially estimated the campaign would last.
While Vance was speaking with commanders, senior White House advisers other than the vice president did not believe they had a sufficient understanding of how US strikes were affecting the calculations of the government in Tehran.
As the war continued, commanders were ordered to send additional munitions to the Middle East while watching their own inventories decline with growing concern.
By April, Trump had realised the war was not unfolding as he had hoped. He authorised a team including Vance, his son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff to begin seeking a framework for negotiations with Iran that could end the conflict while leaving the Iranian political system in power.
Officials familiar with Vance’s communications with military commanders could not determine whether the assessments he received played any role in Trump’s shift towards diplomacy.
