Israeli assessments have lowered the likelihood of a renewed military confrontation with Iran in the near future, after officials had spent recent days warning that Tehran may be preparing to widen the conflict.
According to the Hebrew-language Walla website, the revised assessment followed a series of meetings and discussions with senior US officials. Israeli sources linked the shift to US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a “new package of severe economic sanctions”, arguing that Washington is seeking to buy time until after the US congressional midterm elections.
Earlier Israeli Assessments Pointed to Escalation
Days earlier, Ynet quoted an Israeli official as saying that “officials in Israel identified indications of a change in the Iranian leadership’s perception of the nature of the war, and its preparedness for the possibility of expanding the confrontation”.
According to the assessments reported at the time, Tehran could seek to exert military and economic pressure on Washington and Tel Aviv by targeting energy facilities, maritime shipping routes and the interests of US allies in the region.
Those assessments also suggested that Iran had begun viewing the confrontation as extending beyond the military arena, particularly in light of the effects of the naval blockade and the damage inflicted on its ability to export oil and generate revenue.
Ynet quoted an Israeli official as saying that continued economic pressure could push Tehran towards an “offensive move”, particularly if it viewed the blockade as a threat to the stability of the political system and its ability to finance its security institutions and the organisations it supports.
From the Israeli perspective, this assessment may become increasingly relevant following Trump’s announcement of an “economic war” against Iran, which could leave Tehran feeling compelled to respond in order to prevent the entrenchment of its blockade and isolation.
Ammunition Shortages Complicate a New War
However, expectations of another military round are running into concerns within Israel over ammunition stocks and interceptor missiles.
Writing in Yedioth Ahronoth, military analyst Yossi Yehoshua said the Americans had “learned the lesson” from the war with Iran.
He noted that the United States entered the conflict with significantly larger stockpiles than Israel, but intensive use of weapons and interception systems rapidly depleted those reserves.
Yehoshua said replenishing US stockpiles would take years, describing this as a warning against any Israeli assumption that it could rely on an “unlimited air supply line” from the United States.
He argued that Washington remains Tel Aviv’s most important ally, but it too has limited stockpiles, constrained production capacity and commitments to other wars.
As a result, he said Israel would need to possess sufficient reserves to sustain prolonged fighting in any comprehensive conflict.
Yehoshua therefore called for “increasing domestic production of weapons and interception systems, expanding production lines and maintaining larger strategic stockpiles”.
Economic Pressure Takes Priority Over Military Action
Alongside the debate over Israel’s ability to fight another round, signs have emerged of a broader reassessment of the results of the war itself.
According to The Intercept, rare public dismissals within Mossad reflect awareness of the scale of Israel’s “failure to achieve the objectives it had counted on during the war against Iran”.
The report said Israeli air strikes, covert operations and assassinations targeting senior Iranian officials failed to trigger a collapse within state institutions.
Iran’s security structure remained cohesive, while Iranian cities did not witness mass protests capable of threatening the political system.
The Intercept added that Mossad had also relied on supporting internal movements and encouraging defections, alongside plans to arm Kurdish groups operating from Iraq into Iran.
According to the report, none of these efforts produced the large-scale uprising Israel had hoped to ignite.
A Rapid Return to War Now Seen as Less Likely
Current Israeli assessments broadly agree that the likelihood of a rapid return to a large-scale military confrontation has declined, at least if the initiative is expected to come from the United States and Israel.
However, the possibility remains that Iran itself could move to widen the regional escalation in an effort to break the US blockade and prevent Washington from neutralising Tehran’s strongest pressure card, the Strait of Hormuz.
This concern is linked to efforts to establish alternative shipping routes south of the strait under US control and protection, which could reduce Iran’s leverage over one of the world’s most important maritime energy corridors.
