Southern Lebanon is witnessing continued Israeli escalation involving airstrikes, artillery shelling, demolitions and land clearing, amid casualties and growing questions over the objectives of the escalation and the scope of future Israeli operations, particularly around Ali al-Taher Hill.
Abdul Qader Arada, speaking through Al Jazeera’s interactive map, said Ali al-Taher Hill has become a central focus of the latest escalation, especially after Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz visited Beaufort Castle and looked out over the hill, a move carrying a clear message about the site’s importance and the possibility of Israeli forces remaining in the so-called security zone for an extended period.
He explained that the hill, which rises more than 670 metres above sea level, has been repeatedly shelled and targeted in recent days, alongside reports that the Israeli military leadership has been instructed to prepare to encircle it and Israeli statements pointing to a possible military operation in the area.
Arada said the escalation has not been limited to Ali al-Taher. It has extended to several areas, including Deir al-Zahrani, Ansariya and Nabatieh al-Fawqa.
He noted that four people were killed and five others wounded in a drone strike on Deir al-Zahrani, in addition to other attacks south of the Litani River targeting Deir Seryan, Bani Hayyan, Markaba and Beit Yahoun.
He also pointed to the continuation of land clearing and demolition operations, particularly in the Mansouri area, saying the pattern of attacks raises questions about the messages Israel is seeking to send and whether the escalation is directly linked to the fate of the strategic hill.
What Has Changed Militarily?
Retired Brigadier General and military strategist Elias Hanna said the “constant” in the current situation is Israel’s continued effort to consolidate its presence within what it calls the “security” or “yellow” zone through positions in Mansouri, Maroun al-Ras and Khiam.
The main “variable”, he said, is the escalation around Ali al-Taher Hill.
Hanna said the area has suffered widespread destruction and argued that Israel has shifted from a policy of deterrence, containment and intermittent operations towards what he described as “punitive deterrence”.
According to his assessment, the aim is to prevent Hezbollah from repositioning and reorganising in preparation for any future confrontation.
He explained that Ali al-Taher Hill is militarily linked to Beaufort Castle, Khiam and the Galilee Panhandle, giving the occupation strategic significance in controlling the area and influencing surrounding directions because of its direct oversight of vital routes.
Hanna said the operations around the hill may have received direct American approval outside the mechanisms associated with the framework agreement.
He argued that the current escalation serves a broader Israeli strategy aimed at preventing Hezbollah from rebuilding its military structure.
The military expert linked developments in southern Lebanon with events on other fronts in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, arguing that Israel is operating within a broader strategy designed to dismantle the influence of forces associated with Iran across the region.
He said control of elevated positions, including Ali al-Taher Hill, allows Israel to exercise “indirect control” over broad areas within what he described as a concept of “systemic warfare” aimed at destroying the environment that could provide Hezbollah with a safe space to reorganise.
What Remains of the Framework Agreement?
Regarding the framework agreement, Hanna said the Lebanese state currently possesses little beyond diplomatic tools and American pressure.
He noted that Israel has not allowed withdrawals from trial areas in Khiam, Marjayoun and Bint Jbeil.
The military expert added that Israel is currently focused on securing complete control over key centres of gravity, while negotiations continue alongside the Lebanese state’s limited military options for responding on the ground.
Hanna concluded that the central question is whether the current escalation represents gradual military pressure or whether it is laying the groundwork for a broader Israeli operation in southern Lebanon.
Israel continues to violate the agreement despite signing a “framework formula” with Beirut on 26 June that provides for a gradual Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday that the Israeli military would not withdraw.
The US State Department, for its part, said that any permanent Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon would contradict the commitments contained in the framework agreement and would not serve the interests of peace.
