Philosophers, thinkers and observers have long reflected on the reversals of time and the strange turns of days and nights. As the poet wrote:
If you contemplate the turns of time,
They grant a person wisdom and reflection.Here I am today residing in Al-Nawara,
What covenant ever stood between me and Al-Nawara?
History has repeatedly confirmed the element of surprise and instability. Every age has its struggles, every century its disputes, and every era its rise and decline. History and time seem incapable of standing still. They remain in constant motion and perpetual contest.
The Italian thinker Antonio Gramsci captured this condition precisely when he said: “The old is dying and the new is struggling to be born; this is the time of great monsters.”
Since the dawn of history, the world has witnessed the rise of empires and the fall of others, the disappearance of powers and the emergence of new ones, death and life, ascent and decline. History has always carried these opposites together in one continuous movement, swinging between the depths of suffering and the heights of prosperity, hope and pain, light and darkness.
The Qur’an states this reality clearly: “And these days We alternate among the people.” It is the law of succession, whereby power, sovereignty and dominance pass from one people to another. It is a “Game of Civilisations”, a contest a thousand times more dangerous and complex than Game of Thrones.
Global Hegemony: A Prize Sought by All
History has witnessed prolonged struggles for supremacy. The Persians and Greeks dominated the ancient world, followed by the Roman Empire, which ruled for centuries until its era came to an end amid invasions by barbarian peoples and the advance of what was seen as barbarism over civilisation.
Islam then emerged and rose to global prominence through the Rightly Guided Caliphate and the flourishing Umayyad, Abbasid and Ottoman empires. Eventually, however, the Ottoman state weakened and became known as the “sick man” amid an increasingly ambitious Europe, empowered by the discovery of the New World, the Enlightenment and a broad liberation from centuries of ecclesiastical domination.
The last four centuries, beginning around 1600, witnessed the rise of Western civilisation and the transfer of power and global dominance from East to West. Yet the question remains: did the law of succession come to an end?
From Britain to the United Kingdom
The last five centuries have been exceptionally dynamic, accelerating the movement of history. The world had rarely witnessed such a concentration of wars and discoveries as it did during this period, from the discovery of the Americas to electricity and the internet, and from wars of succession between European powers to the French Revolution, the Napoleonic Wars and the world wars.
Broadly speaking, the United Kingdom was the most dominant global power across much of the previous four centuries. Its prolonged political stability, formidable naval strength and favourable geographical location all helped establish that position.
Britain became the empire on which the sun never set, backed by its fleets, transcontinental trade, discoveries and civilisational achievements. Yet the same historical law of succession eventually caught up with it through the First and Second World Wars.
Its age of prosperity and primacy came to an end, and a new era opened on the world stage, another chapter in the continuing transfer of global power.
The Cold War and the Bipolar World
The two world wars left the international order divided between two competing poles: the Western bloc led by the United States and its allies, and the Eastern bloc led by the Soviet Union and its allies.
The rivalry between these two powers shaped most of the political and strategic dynamics of the latter half of the twentieth century. Directly or indirectly, much of the world moved according to the rhythm of East-West competition.
The American Era: The Peak of Unipolar Power
History, as always, refused to stand still.
The Soviet war in Afghanistan, combined with the failure of its economic system, contributed to a dramatic collapse. The fall of the Berlin Wall became one of the final images of the Eastern giant’s decline, ushering in a new era in which the United States emerged as the world’s dominant power.
American military bases spread across the globe, with some reports estimating that the United States operates around 750 military bases worldwide. The American economy came to dominate the global economy, world markets opened to US products, households embraced American cinema, and younger generations developed a taste for American fast food.
American dominance did not rely solely on the country’s own economic and military strength. It also made extensive use of international institutions, including United Nations bodies, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Security Council, to reinforce that dominance both directly and indirectly.
The prominent Moroccan thinker Mahdi Elmandjra reached a similar conclusion after years of direct experience within international institutions. He said: “They were created to serve the interests of the major powers, not the world or humanity.”
The period between 1990 and 2011 can broadly be described as the age of Uncle Sam, the powerful state founded by ambitious and determined pioneers. President Thomas Jefferson described it as an “Empire of Liberty”, while President Abraham Lincoln described it as “the last best hope of earth”.
But could the land of the cowboys escape the reversals of time?
History is a continuous movement that never stops. Contestation is an enduring law that does not disappear. Every beginning has an end, and within this lies a profound lesson about work, persistence, struggle and refusing despair.
From American Unipolarity to a Multipolar World
Anyone reflecting on the past two decades cannot fail to notice the extraordinary pace and succession of events. The period has resembled an action film in its speed and intensity. International institutions and globalisation itself have appeared increasingly unable to keep pace.
The beginning of the twenty-first century witnessed the September 11 attacks, followed by the invasion of Afghanistan, then Iraq, the Arab Spring, the counter-revolution, the war in Ukraine, and then the great flood, the flood of courage and dignity, Al-Aqsa Flood.
The developments that followed, according to this reading, opened the way to further major transformations, including the fall of the Syrian regime, the outbreak of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and the Israeli-American war.
All these events suggest that the “last man”, as Francis Fukuyama described him, never truly enjoyed the throne of unchallenged supremacy. What Fukuyama imagined as the “end of history” may instead have been merely the beginning of another chapter in the struggle between civilisations.
Many astute political analysts now argue that the era of exclusive American dominance has passed, and that the world is entering a new period characterised by multiple centres of power and expanding geopolitical blocs.
Several factors have driven this shift.
The United States suffered prolonged strategic exhaustion in Iraq and Afghanistan, alongside the economic crises that followed. At the same time, isolationist thinking has gained greater influence in American foreign policy, carrying with it a reluctance to remain deeply involved in affairs beyond the American continent.
The world has also witnessed the rapid rise of competing powers such as China and Russia, while relations between Washington and its traditional allies have grown less stable, particularly amid tensions between Donald Trump and leaders of European Union countries.
Taken together, these developments suggest that unchallenged American hegemony may be approaching its end and that the world may be moving towards a multipolar order.
China represents one pole, Russia another, and the European Union, particularly as strains grow between it and its American ally, may constitute another. The United States remains a major pole in its own right.
Between these centres of power, rising regional states continue to manoeuvre. They are not yet powerful enough to become global poles, but neither are they weak enough to be treated as dependent developing states with diminished sovereignty.
Türkiye, Iran, India and Pakistan are among the clearest examples. Under certain conditions, Egypt and Saudi Arabia may also fall into this category.
History remains in constant motion and knows no permanent stillness. Contestation is an enduring law, and every beginning eventually reaches its end.
No matter how deeply rooted or powerful a state or civilisation becomes, it will continue to carry elements of weakness within itself. A day may come when those weaknesses multiply and lead to inevitable collapse.
And to Allah belongs the command before and after.
The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera Media Network.
