The joint defence agreement between Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has opened the door to questions over whether the three countries are moving towards forming the core of a broader regional military alliance, described by the British newspaper The Times as a potential “Sunni Islamic NATO”.
The possibility comes as Ankara seeks to strengthen its role as a security guarantor in the Middle East amid growing doubts over the future of reliance on US protection.
In an article by Liz Cookman, The Times said the joint defence agreement signed in Mecca on Friday brings together three of the most prominent Sunni military powers and states that an armed attack on one of the three countries would be considered an attack on all parties.
In principle, the arrangement resembles the commitment contained in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty establishing NATO.
The newspaper argued that the pact goes beyond merely strengthening military ties between the three countries. It could represent a major expansion of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s role as a security guarantor in the Middle East and serve as a building block in a broader Turkish vision for a regional security architecture more independent of Western powers.
At the same time, the agreement raises questions about the practical limits of each party’s commitment, whom it is intended to deter, and whether Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan would be prepared to enter a military confrontation if one of them were attacked in circumstances that did not directly affect the security interests of the other two.
Analysts cited by The Times said the agreement may, at its current stage, be more of a political and military deterrence message than an absolute guarantee of intervention in every conflict faced by one of the three countries, particularly given the different threat environments and security priorities confronting each state.
Is Iran the Target?
The newspaper said all three countries joining the agreement are key allies of the United States, placing them in practical terms within the anti-Iran camp in the broader structural divide across the region.
After the agreement was signed, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stressed that it was not directed against Iran.
Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia was struck by Iran during the war and its oil sector suffered severe economic losses. Iranian missiles heading towards Turkish airspace were also intercepted. Pakistan, meanwhile, has a complex relationship with neighbouring Iran that is frequently marked by hostility.
Fidan said the agreement, which had been under preparation for more than two and a half years, was technically equivalent to the collective defence commitment set out in Article 5 of the NATO treaty.
That carries significant implications because the military capabilities of the three countries are substantial.
Pakistan is the only nuclear-armed Muslim-majority state. Saudi Arabia possesses the most prominent Arab military force in the Gulf, while Türkiye has NATO’s second-largest army and a rapidly growing defence industry.
Although the three countries share concerns over Iran and have criticised Israeli actions in Gaza and elsewhere in the region, the principal security threats facing each of them differ considerably.
Pakistan continues to regard India as its primary national security concern. Türkiye has longstanding disputes with Greece and over Cyprus, while also remaining deeply involved in the Syrian file. Saudi Arabia’s concerns are more heavily focused on Iran, although its principal battlefield in recent years has been against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
Asli Aydintasbas, an analyst at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, said the agreement is based more on collective deterrence than collective defence, stressing that the alliance “is not a replica of NATO”.
She added that the agreement partly reflects Türkiye’s “aspirations” to build a “broader, multinational defence architecture in the Middle East”, while simultaneously sending messages to both Iran and Israel.
A Regional Security Structure Beyond Washington
At the heart of the proposed structure is the three countries’ perceived need to establish a regional security infrastructure centred on the Middle East but independent of Western powers, particularly the United States.
Erdogan is keen to broaden the alliance to include other regional powers such as Egypt, while Qatar is another obvious potential participant.
Aydintasbas said the agreement could result in increased Turkish military support for Saudi Arabia.
Participation in multinational naval patrols in the Red Sea, for example, or the deployment of Turkish forces to Saudi Arabia for defensive purposes would significantly expand Türkiye’s security role across the region.
Omer Ozkizilcik, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said there is a broader shift towards regional powers assuming greater responsibility for their own security.
“The primary objective of the agreement is to strengthen regional cooperation and lead the region towards a new security environment,” he said, adding that negotiations had begun before President Trump returned to office last year.
For now, the United States does not appear to oppose this direction.
Aydintasbas said US officials she had consulted did not appear concerned about the agreement. Rather, it aligns with the Trump administration’s demand for greater “burden sharing” by US allies.
The most immediate outcome of the agreement, however, may be greater mutual defence procurement, effectively expanding arms trade between the three countries.
Aydintasbas said there was “enormous potential” for cooperation between their respective defence industries.
While Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have long maintained close security ties, relations between Riyadh and Ankara have previously been marked by tension and rivalry.
Türkiye was a close ally of Qatar, with both sharing a supportive position towards the Muslim Brotherhood, at a time when relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia came close to direct confrontation nearly a decade ago.
Ozkizilcik said all sides had cooperated over Syria and that developments in Gaza had pushed them closer together.
He added that the new alliance could further strengthen that relationship.
