Israeli circles are closely monitoring the implications of the trilateral Turkish-Saudi-Pakistani agreement, viewing Riyadh’s expanding security and strategic ties with Türkiye, Pakistan and the United States, alongside its talks with Iran and firmer position on the Palestinian issue, as developments carrying negative implications for the occupation state.
Eitan Lasry, an expert on governance, public policy and strategy and a commentator on Middle East affairs, said the region had entered a new strategic era in which Saudi Arabia was no longer waiting for the United States or Israel to shape its security and economic future.
According to Lasry, Riyadh’s current policy is built around distributing risk, diversifying partnerships and pursuing strategic independence in order to protect domestic stability and the objectives of Vision 2030.
Riyadh Plays Across the Entire Strategic Field
In an article published by i24NEWS, Lasry described what he called a strategy of “playing across the entire field”: security agreements with different powers, a civilian nuclear programme with Washington, alliances with Islamic countries, negotiations with Tehran and, at the same time, preparations against Iran and its allies.
He said the defence agreement signed between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan was one of the clearest expressions of this shift. Under the agreement, an armed attack against any one of the three countries would be regarded as an attack against all three.
Saudi Arabia contributes capital and resources to the alliance, Türkiye brings its defence industry, drones and military capabilities, while Pakistan provides its army and strategic depth.
Lasry noted that it remains unclear how such a commitment would be implemented in wartime, and that the alliance’s credibility would only be tested during a crisis.
For Israel, he argued, the Turkish element is the most sensitive. A combination of Saudi capital and Turkish security capabilities could, over time, create a new regional power centre, although he stressed that at this stage the alliance is not an anti-Israel bloc.
United States Remains Riyadh’s Main Strategic Partner
Despite the expansion of Saudi Arabia’s relationships, Lasry said the United States remains Riyadh’s principal strategic partner.
At the centre of that relationship is also a proposed civilian nuclear agreement with Washington. From the Saudi perspective, the programme is intended to diversify energy sources, free more oil for export and support energy-intensive infrastructure, including data centres and artificial intelligence.
However, the possibility that Saudi Arabia could retain independent enrichment capabilities in the future is raising concerns about a regional nuclear race.
Lasry argued that if Riyadh acquires advanced nuclear capabilities without normalising relations with Israel, one of the main pressure mechanisms designed to link a US-Saudi nuclear agreement to the Abraham Accords could be weakened.
Iran Still Central to Saudi Security Calculations
The Iranian threat remains at the heart of Saudi Arabia’s security outlook, particularly missiles and drones, as well as the threat posed by the Houthis in Yemen and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq.
At the same time that Riyadh is strengthening air and maritime defence cooperation and broader military ties with its partners, it continues direct talks with Tehran.
According to Lasry, the objective is to prevent an escalation that could jeopardise the stability of energy markets and undermine the goals of Vision 2030.
Palestinian Issue Complicates Normalisation
For years, a Saudi-Israeli-Emirati axis was viewed as the potential foundation of a new regional order under US sponsorship.
That calculation is now becoming less certain.
Saudi Arabia has hardened its public position on the Palestinian issue, while its deepening relationships with Türkiye and Pakistan give it significant shared interests outside the Israeli track.
The kingdom requires technologies in areas such as missile defence and drones, while a future economic corridor linking India, the Gulf and Europe could still give Israel an important role.
Lasry said the current defence agreement should not be interpreted as a declaration of war against Israel, but rather as evidence of Riyadh’s growing strategic independence.
He argued that Israel can no longer base its regional strategy on expectations of rapid normalisation with Saudi Arabia or the creation of a military alliance against Iran.
Instead, he said Israel would need to deepen cooperation with Riyadh in intelligence and technology, develop regional defence systems against missiles and drones, and maintain dialogue with Washington over the limits of the Saudi nuclear programme.
“The question is not whether the kingdom has chosen Türkiye and Pakistan over Israel, but whether Israel will know how to give Riyadh a strong reason to choose it as well,” he wrote.
Israeli circles are still awaiting the longer-term consequences of the trilateral alliance for the occupation state’s future position in the region, particularly as Israel seeks to advance broader plans to redraw the regional map in line with its expansionist interests.
