An Israeli report has revealed behind-the-scenes details of what it described as “dramatic” regional shifts, ranging from expectations in Washington of a possible change in Iran’s political direction to a Saudi normalisation agreement with “Israel” that reportedly remained on the table even during the war on Gaza.
Israeli journalist Nadav Eyal wrote in Yedioth Ahronoth that an earlier opportunity to reach a normalisation agreement between Saudi Arabia and “Israel” collapsed because Israeli occupation Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refused to proceed. Eyal also claimed that Iran may be moving towards “the Western side”.
A “Dramatic Change”
Eyal said a senior US official close to decision-making circles recently told an Israeli official that a “dramatic change” could take place in the Middle East and that Iran may be moving towards “the Western side”.
The official reportedly compared the potential shift to the period of perestroika led by former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev.
According to Eyal, the assessment surprised the Israeli official, particularly as the confrontation with Iran continues, alongside US attacks on sites inside the country, President Donald Trump’s threats to target Iranian energy facilities and the ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
However, Eyal said some officials in Washington, including influential figures, believe Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, could become the “Gorbachev of Shiite fundamentalism”, potentially opening the way for major changes inside Iran.
The Israeli official initially considered the idea far removed from Israeli intelligence assessments, Eyal wrote, but later acknowledged that the US administration had previously surprised observers on several issues, including prisoner exchange agreements and developments in Lebanon and Syria.
The “Peace Corridor” Project
Eyal said the so-called “new Middle East” is moving forward, but without Israeli participation.
Delegations from Gulf states and Saudi Arabia recently travelled to Washington to discuss the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, known as IMEC. The project aims to connect Asia and the Middle East through a railway network for transporting goods from the Gulf, and possibly India, to the port of Haifa.
The administration of former US President Joe Biden announced the project in September 2023 as part of efforts to strengthen US influence in the region and support normalisation between “Israel” and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh expressed its readiness to invest tens of billions of dollars in the project.
Eyal said the war froze the normalisation process and the projects linked to it. Meanwhile, IMEC expanded regionally to include advanced infrastructure such as fibre-optic networks, cybersecurity, green hydrogen and artificial intelligence.
According to Eyal, “Israel” is no longer part of the route of the “peace train”.
Normalisation During the War
Eyal reported that Saudi Arabia was prepared to proceed with a normalisation agreement even during the war.
Talks between the Biden administration and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the summer of 2024 reportedly produced a proposal that included an agreement to release those held in Gaza and bring the war to an end.
According to the report, bin Salman told US officials that Saudi Arabia was prepared to send Saudi forces into Gaza to help administer the territory after the war, as part of a plan positioning Riyadh as a leading party in ending the fighting.
Under the proposed arrangement, all uninvolved civilians were to be released, meaning all Israeli prisoners would return, under terms similar to an agreement reached later.
Following a ceasefire, an alternative authority would then be established to administer Gaza in place of Hamas, paving the way for normalisation between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.
Eyal added that the final proposal presented to the Saudi crown prince, and accepted by him, included an Israeli commitment to establish a Palestinian state within five to seven years.
The Saudis also reportedly assured Israeli officials that the agreement would not collapse if the establishment of a Palestinian state was delayed. They said the Palestinian leadership would be held responsible if the state was not ultimately established.
Netanyahu Refused the Proposal
Eyal said the United States was preparing to advance significant initiatives in Saudi Arabia’s favour, some of which required a large majority in the US Senate.
However, the Biden administration understood that far-right Israeli ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich could attempt to bring down Netanyahu’s government immediately after the signing of such a broad regional peace agreement.
For this reason, the Biden administration asked Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid and other figures to provide Netanyahu’s government with a temporary “safety net” for several months so the agreement could be completed.
According to the report, Lapid agreed to the arrangement and Netanyahu was informed of the proposed guarantees, but he refused to proceed.
