Recent understandings concerning the Strait of Hormuz continue to generate widespread debate, alongside growing warnings about how any future arrangements could reshape the balance of regional influence in the Gulf.
In this context, Israeli military officer and analyst Amit Yagur argued that the ongoing understandings between Iran and the Sultanate of Oman over the management of the Strait of Hormuz could marginalise the United Arab Emirates and weaken its strategic position along one of the world’s most important maritime corridors.
In an article published by the Hebrew newspaper Maariv, Yagur pointed to the joint statement issued by Iran and Oman, in which both countries, as the two coastal states overlooking the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring safe passage through the waterway.
The statement also confirmed that discussions would continue through a joint working group between the foreign ministries of both countries to reach an agreement on the future management of navigation, maritime services, and associated costs, while emphasising respect for the sovereignty and rights of the two states bordering the strait.
According to Yagur, the statement should be a source of concern for the UAE, arguing that the proposed arrangements effectively exclude Abu Dhabi from any role in managing the Strait of Hormuz and diminish one of its key strategic assets and sources of regional influence.
Iran and Oman Accused of Seeking Exclusive Control
Yagur argued that Iran and Oman are attempting to use Article Five of their memorandum of understanding to establish exclusive control over the management of the strait through a closed bilateral framework governing maritime traffic, including the collection of fees or payments associated with its use.
However, he maintained that the geographical reality presents a different picture and provides the UAE with strong grounds to demand a central role in any future arrangements concerning the waterway.
Geography Strengthens the UAE’s Position
The analyst noted that a look at the map highlights the importance of the Musandam Peninsula, located at the narrowest point of the Strait of Hormuz. Although geographically separated from mainland Oman by the eastern territories of the UAE, Musandam remains under Omani sovereignty.
He explained that the peninsula’s importance extends beyond its location at the narrowest section of the strait. It also overlooks the wider inbound and outbound shipping lanes that serve as a vital artery for global oil exports and international trade.
Disputed Islands Remain a Key Issue
Yagur then turned to the disputed islands at the western entrance of the strait, noting that Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb remain the subject of a longstanding dispute between Iran and the UAE.
He pointed out that Iran has exercised effective control over the islands since 1971, while Abu Dhabi continues to claim full sovereignty over them.
The analyst added that international law grants coastal states jurisdiction over waters extending 22 kilometres, or 12 nautical miles, from their territory. He noted that the maritime boundaries Iran claims on the basis of these islands remain the subject of legal and diplomatic dispute.
He further argued that the UAE’s most important position lies east of the strait, where the exclusive maritime boundaries of Iran and the UAE intersect.
According to Yagur, the map clearly demonstrates that if the UAE were to fully assert its maritime rights, it could create an entirely different reality in the Strait of Hormuz and prevent any two countries from making unilateral decisions regarding its future.
Warning Against Unilateral Control
Yagur concluded that geography alone demonstrates that Iran and Oman cannot manage the Strait of Hormuz independently. He warned that allowing such an arrangement could establish a dangerous international precedent for the management of strategically important maritime waterways.
In light of this, he urged the UAE to adopt a firm position before the international community and Gulf states by rejecting any new mechanism for managing the strait unless it is recognised as a full partner, consistent with the geographical realities and existing strategic considerations.
He also argued that Abu Dhabi could insist on maintaining the status quo that existed before the war. Should efforts be made to alter that arrangement, he said the UAE would be entitled to reopen the issue of sovereignty over the disputed islands at the western entrance of the strait.
Yagur added that such a position could receive support from Saudi Arabia, recalling previous remarks by the Saudi foreign minister opposing the imposition of transit fees or charges on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
