The summit between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping came only days after US President Donald Trump visits Beijing. The Russian president’s trip resulted in a broad package of agreements and renewed emphasis on the strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing in response to mounting Western pressure.
Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a joint declaration calling for the construction of a “multipolar world and a new model of international relations”. The two leaders also agreed to extend the Treaty of Good Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation on the occasion of its 25th anniversary, alongside signing 40 cooperation agreements covering multiple sectors. Energy projects dominated the discussions, but for Moscow the most critical issues were strategic and political, particularly Trump’s diplomacy with Beijing and the limits of Chinese support for both Iran and Russia.
China’s Strategic Position on Iran
Beijing continues to avoid direct military entanglement, prioritising its economic interests above all else. During the recent confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, neither China nor Russia provided Tehran with major direct military assistance.
Instead, Beijing focused primarily on calls for diplomacy and regional stability, reflecting China’s heavy dependence on Gulf energy supplies and global trade markets.
The Kremlin has grown increasingly concerned about the possibility of Washington opening a strategic channel with Beijing. Moscow fears that expanding American-Chinese economic relations could eventually reduce Chinese support for Iran and leave Russia more isolated internationally.
At the same time, Russia recognises that China still depends heavily on Moscow for Russian oil and gas supplies, military coordination, and balancing American global influence. As a result, China’s actual position toward Iran appears politically supportive and economically connected, but militarily cautious.
Trump’s Talks with Xi Extended Beyond Trade
According to the analysis, discussions between Trump and Xi Jinping extended well beyond trade disputes.
Iran, global energy routes, sanctions, Russia, and the future balance of power were all reportedly part of the closed door negotiations. This is precisely why Moscow fears the possibility of an American-Chinese understanding that could weaken Russian influence.
However, China is not seeking to choose between Iran and Russia on one side and the West on the other. Nevertheless, Trump reportedly hopes to partially separate Beijing from the Russian-Iranian axis.
China also reportedly made clear to Trump the need to prevent further militarisation of the Strait of Hormuz.
Beijing’s position on Iran’s nuclear programme has remained largely unchanged since 2015, favouring negotiations and political understandings with Tehran. However, China opposes proposals involving financial fees or charges imposed by Iran in exchange for keeping Hormuz open to global trade.
This point represents a major strategic contradiction between Tehran and Beijing.
Iran’s Economic Crisis and the Strait of Hormuz
From Tehran’s perspective, years of war and sanctions have caused severe economic damage.
Iranian leaders increasingly view the Strait of Hormuz as one of the few remaining tools capable of exerting pressure on the global economy due to its strategic location, energy transit significance, and influence over international shipping routes.
Some estimates suggest that the cumulative economic losses suffered by Iran due to sanctions, conflict, capital flight, damaged infrastructure, and declining oil revenues may amount to hundreds of billions of dollars.
Iran believes that if the world depends on this critical passage, then Tehran should derive economic benefit from protecting and managing it.
China, however, seeks stable and affordable energy supplies and rejects the permanent politicisation of strategic waterways.
While Beijing understands Iran’s economic suffering and supports sanctions relief, it fears that permanent restrictions or financial levies on Hormuz would destabilise global trade and drive oil prices higher, ultimately damaging Chinese industry and economic growth.
As a result, China continues encouraging negotiations, limited normalisation, and controlled stability.
Iran, meanwhile, seeks compensation, recognition of its sovereignty, and the conversion of its strategic influence into economic recovery. Tehran argues that while Western powers froze or restricted Iranian assets, they simultaneously demanded restraint from the Islamic Republic.
This has deepened Iranian distrust after years of sanctions and failed agreements.
Although Beijing publicly defends Iranian sovereignty, it simultaneously seeks to prevent uncontrolled escalation and unrestricted economic disruption.
Why Russia Fears Iranian Weakness
Russia’s primary concern is preventing the weakening or collapse of Iran, which Moscow views as a direct threat to Russian security and regional stability.
From the Kremlin’s perspective, regime change in Tehran would create a dangerous geopolitical scenario. Iran is not merely a partner for Russia, but a key component of Moscow’s southern security architecture and its broader multipolar strategy.
A collapse of the Iranian state or severe internal destabilisation could trigger instability near the Caucasus and Central Asia while creating refugee flows and militant activity across the region.
Russia also understands that an Iran crippled by sanctions and post war destruction urgently requires financial resources to maintain domestic cohesion.
Without oil revenues, trade access, foreign currency reserves, salaries, reconstruction efforts, and basic economic stability, internal pressure on the Iranian government would intensify dramatically.
For Tehran, economic survival has become just as important as military survival. Moscow fears that a financial collapse inside Iran could produce an unpredictable state vulnerable to foreign exploitation and domestic unrest.
The Likely Three-Way Settlement
Russia seeks to preserve the Iranian state but lacks the economic capacity to fully rescue it.
China wants stability without direct confrontation, while the United States continues using sanctions and financial pressure. As a result, economic access, trade routes, oil exports, reconstruction funding, and financial flows have become central to the geopolitical struggle surrounding Iran.
According to the analysis, China is not abandoning Iran. Rather, Beijing is attempting to carefully manage and contain the crisis.
The most likely outcome being pursued by Russia, China, and Iran appears to involve a negotiated arrangement where:
- Iran retains strategic influence over the Strait of Hormuz
- China guarantees continued economic and trade cooperation
- Russia provides political and security backing
- All parties avoid direct large scale confrontation with the United States
In practical terms, this could involve limited and regulated maritime access rather than a full closure of Hormuz, selective economic arrangements with China, negotiations aimed at easing sanctions, investment in reconstruction projects, and a more flexible Iranian approach toward escalation in exchange for economic continuity.
There are already indications of such arrangements emerging. According to the report, Iran previously allowed the passage of ships linked to China following diplomatic coordination with Beijing.
Russia is also expected to support this type of compromise because Moscow understands two simultaneous realities: Iran requires financial stability to maintain internal order, while China requires stability to protect global trade and energy flows.
Moscow’s Balancing Role
Russia increasingly appears to be positioning itself as a mediator between revolutionary ideology and economic pragmatism.
Moscow’s calculations may ultimately rest on maintaining a stable Iran, even if weakened, because the collapse of the Iranian state would represent a far greater strategic danger.
The Kremlin also fears any direct American-Chinese understanding regarding Iran, believing such a development would significantly reduce Russian influence in the region.
For this reason, Russia continues strengthening coordination with China in both energy and political sectors while diplomatically defending Iran at the United Nations.
From Tehran’s perspective, the combined impact of war and sanctions has left deep economic scars, making the Strait of Hormuz one of the few remaining strategic pressure points available to the Iranian leadership.
