During the election campaign that brought him to the German chancellorship last year, Friedrich Merz told Britain’s The Economist that negotiating with US President Donald Trump would be extremely easy. Developments over recent days, however, suggest that the former judge and lawyer may have miscalculated.
The issue now appears to be moving beyond two individuals, Trump and Merz, and into the core relationship between the United States and Germany. Its consequences may even extend across the old continent: Europe.
Merz Criticises Washington’s War Strategy
About a week ago, Merz visited a school in central Germany and spoke to students as part of a programme introducing European politics. During the discussion, he addressed the American-Israeli war on Iran and its repercussions, praising the Iranians’ negotiating ability while criticising the absence of a clear American exit strategy.
Merz said the Iranians were “very good at negotiating, or rather at not negotiating”, adding that they had allowed the Americans to go to Islamabad and then leave again without any result.
The 70-year-old German chancellor went further in criticising the American position. After blaming what he saw as entry into war without any strategy, citing Iraq and Afghanistan as earlier examples, and criticising Washington’s weak negotiating capacity, he delivered his most forceful remark:
“An entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership.”
Trump quickly responded on social media, saying Mr Merz should spend more time fixing his “broken country” and less time interfering in the affairs of those eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat.
But the counterattack was not only verbal. Washington announced a plan to withdraw 5,000 of its troops from Germany, before Trump stated that this was only the beginning, adding that he may also consider withdrawing US forces from Spain and Italy.
Why Germany Matters
Before examining the latest reactions, it is important to understand the relationship between the two countries and what it means for them to move from alliance toward confrontation.
The United States remains the strongest power in NATO and the world. That is beyond dispute.
Germany, however, is not a minor player. It has the largest economy in Europe, the largest population in the European Union at 83 million, and a strategic location at the centre of the continent.
Although US forces are deployed across Europe, Germany carries the greatest weight. It hosts Ramstein Air Base near Kaiserslautern in south-western Germany, the largest US military base outside the United States, as well as command and training centres in Bavaria and Stuttgart.
In numerical terms, Germany hosts between 35,000 and 40,000 American troops. Its importance, however, is not limited to troop numbers. It is a command hub for American operations in Europe and beyond. The Pentagon operates two of its main military commands from Stuttgart: US European Command and US Africa Command. Germany also hosts the largest US military hospital outside American territory.
German and European Reactions
Merz himself attempted to calm the atmosphere. A day later, he said his relationship with Trump remained good despite their disagreement over the war on Iran. He again expressed concern over the economic consequences of the conflict, particularly the burden carried by Germany and Europe due to the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Merz also criticised the high tariffs Trump intends to impose on car imports from the European Union, saying the move targets the EU as a whole, not Germany specifically.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius responded calmly to reports of a partial US troop withdrawal. He said Germany is on the right track and that what happened should motivate Europeans to strengthen their defences, particularly as the continent works to reinforce deterrence against Russia.
European leaders adopted a similar tone, stating that Trump’s decision, while surprising, is another sign that Europe must take responsibility for its own security.
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said on Monday that Berlin wants to enter “intensive consultations” with the United States after the troop withdrawal decision, in order to clarify the nature of the decision and what options Germany has to influence it.
Meanwhile, the German Defence Ministry said Washington has not yet definitively cancelled former US President Joe Biden’s plan to deploy a battalion equipped with long-range Tomahawk missiles in Germany.
According to Germany’s Deutsche Welle, experts believe that reducing the American military presence in Germany does not pose as great a risk as the possible cancellation of the Tomahawk deployment, which was intended to strengthen deterrence against Russia.
NATO, which Trump has repeatedly accused of failing to support the United States in its war on Iran, said through a spokesperson that the alliance is working with Washington to understand the details of the decision.
Trump has repeatedly criticised major NATO states after France, Spain, and Britain refused to give American forces freedom to use bases on their territory to attack Iran. Spain also prevented US forces from using its airspace and bases for the war.
American Opposition to Trump’s Move
What is striking is that Trump’s decision has also drawn opposition inside the United States. Two senior Republican lawmakers expressed concern, saying US troops should not leave Europe.
In a joint statement, Senator Roger Wicker and Representative Mike Rogers, who chair the Armed Services Committees in the Senate and House respectively, warned that “prematurely reducing America’s forward presence in Europe, before these capabilities are fully leveraged, risks undermining deterrence and sends the wrong signal to Vladimir Putin”.
The two lawmakers added that Germany had responded to Mr Trump’s call for greater burden sharing by significantly increasing defence spending, providing smooth access and military bases, and offering air cover for American forces during “Operation Epic Fury”, a reference to the war on Iran that began on 28 February.
Is the Dispute Personal?
The unusual nature of the situation appears to have left the German press uncertain. According to Al Jazeera Net’s correspondent in Germany, Nasser Jabara, German newspapers largely avoided deeper analysis and confined themselves to news coverage.
The conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine argued that whatever the reasons behind this verbal escalation, both sides must be realistic and avoid beautifying the picture, because transatlantic relations are undergoing a fundamental transformation and are further than ever from the partnership Merz speaks about.
The liberal Handelsblatt pointed to what it saw as a shared weakness between Trump and Merz. Trump fears his party may lose the congressional elections in the autumn, while his influence appears to be declining. Merz, meanwhile, leads a coalition burdened by disputes and could fall before autumn, while the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany party is approaching 30 percent in opinion polls.
Despite that, the newspaper ruled out a real rupture between the two sides, summarising the matter as follows:
“We must prove that the United States needs us, and that we need it, but to a lesser degree.”
The left-leaning Süddeutsche Zeitung also approached the issue through the personalities of Trump and Merz, arguing that both men share one trait: their thoughts are not always carefully examined before becoming statements or social media posts.
The newspaper added that Merz seems to pride himself on saying what he believes is right, even if it stirs public controversy. Yet such an approach is not wise when dealing with a “narcissistic” president whose country Germany depends on heavily.
The paper argued that primary responsibility lies with Trump, who tends to treat allies as subordinates and constantly looks for evidence to support his suspicion that Europeans benefit from the relationship with America without giving enough in return.
Merz’s Contradictory Position on Iran
Merz’s position toward the United States is also filled with contradictions. Less than a year ago, in an interview with ZDF, he expressed support for the war on Iran, saying:
“I am grateful that Israel is doing the dirty work on behalf of all of us.”
He added that Iran had brought death and destruction to the world through attacks, killing, bloodshed, and support for Hezbollah and Hamas, and that the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023 would not have happened without the Iranian regime.
On the personal level, neither Trump nor Merz is in a strong position. Trump is awaiting midterm congressional elections that could cost his party its majority in both the Senate and the House, severely weakening him in the second half of his term.
Merz, meanwhile, is clashing with the strongest ally at a difficult moment. His public approval has fallen to just 15 percent amid tensions between his Christian Democratic Union and the Social Democratic Party over domestic reforms.
At the same time, the far-right Alternative for Germany continues advancing in polls, while economic growth expectations are falling due to the war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Merz Is Not Alone
To complete the picture, it must be noted that Merz is not the only Western leader to face Trump’s harsh treatment, despite Germany taking several steps toward closer alignment with Washington in recent months, including becoming the second-largest donor to Ukraine after the United States.
Trump’s criticism of Western allies has also targeted Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
Brett Bruen, who served as director of global engagement under President Barack Obama, argued that Trump’s attacks on these leaders are counterproductive. He said Trump surprises them with actions such as war, then demands support when he becomes entangled.
Speaking to The Hill, Bruen said that if Trump wants help from allies, he must give them “a seat at the table”.
Trump has also clashed with German chancellors before. During his first term, he had a well-known dispute with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who published a 2018 image of herself staring down Trump during that year’s G7 meeting.
According to The Hill, the relationship was strained even before Trump took office. When Merkel was named Time magazine’s Person of the Year in 2015, Trump wrote on social media that he had said Time would not choose him despite being the favourite, adding that they had chosen “someone who is ruining Germany”.
A Long-Term Review, Not Just a Personal Clash
Despite the signs of personal tension, the matter cannot be reduced to personalities alone. Mark Webber, professor of international politics at the University of Birmingham, said the troop withdrawal decision is part of a long-term Pentagon review of the global posture of US forces.
He told Britain’s i Paper that the withdrawal was undoubtedly carefully planned inside the Pentagon and coordinated with local American and German commands. The remaining US forces would continue performing missions that benefit the United States through forward deployment, and the Trump administration has shown no desire to put those missions at risk.
Still, withdrawing large numbers of US troops from European bases would deal a serious blow to Washington’s ability to project influence across wide areas of the world and would undermine its strategic interests.
Trump had previously called for reducing the US military presence in Germany during his first term, repeatedly urging Europe to take responsibility for its own security.
Tevfik Özcan, head of Germany’s DAVA party, believes the issue is also partly linked to economic competition and trade. Germany is an industrial state with powerful exports, and Washington sometimes views this as unfair, especially because Germany’s trade surplus with the United States is a long-standing grievance for Trump.
In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Özcan rejected the idea that Germany is simply the weaker partner in the alliance. He argued that it is in the core interest of the United States not to abandon the alliance, noting that NATO benefits Washington as much as it benefits Europe, and that abandoning it would significantly weaken American influence.
What Options Does Germany Have?
Is Germany ready to fight? This question has been at the centre of rising debate in Germany for years, and it has grown louder in recent months.
Defence Minister Boris Pistorius recently unveiled a revised German military strategy aimed at strengthening the army and increasing its personnel to half a million, amid warnings of a possible Russian threat in the coming years.
The strategy rests on three pillars: strengthening defence and resilience, achieving a qualitative leap in capabilities, and securing technological superiority.
The Wall Street Journal has reported that Germany, under Merz’s government, has intensified military spending and accelerated procurement, with the aim of becoming Europe’s largest conventional military power by 2029. Berlin has also reached an agreement with France to support the American nuclear umbrella.
Military analysts say Berlin is moving steadily toward reducing its dependence on US military protection, but the dispute between Merz and Trump has served as a necessary reminder of how urgent this effort has become.
Özcan believes that a US withdrawal from Germany would mark a historic turning point, because Germany would, for the first time since the Second World War, have to learn how to protect itself.
He added that Europe must move closer together, take Russia’s interests more seriously and view it as a partner rather than an enemy, while also intensifying military and economic cooperation with Türkiye.
From Hostility to Alliance
The rapid developments of the present make it useful to place the historical background at the end. This history explains how the relationship between the United States and Germany evolved over the decades.
The main stages can be summarised as follows:
Hostility: 1939 to 1945
During the Second World War, Nazi Germany under Adolf Hitler was in direct confrontation with the Allies, including the United States.
America’s entry into the war after the Pearl Harbour attack escalated the military confrontation against Germany.
Defeat and Reconstruction: 1945 to 1949
Germany surrendered in 1945, beginning the American occupation of parts of the country.
The Marshall Plan was launched to support the German economy and prevent collapse.
Germany was divided into East and West amid rising tensions with the Soviet Union.
Beginning of Cooperation: 1949 to 1955
West Germany was established as a “democratic” state supported by America.
It became a strategic ally against the Eastern Bloc during the Cold War.
Military and Political Alliance: From 1955
West Germany joined NATO, cementing its security partnership with the United States.
The American military presence on German soil continued as part of deterrence against the Soviet Union.
After the Cold War: 1990 to Today
The United States supported German reunification in 1990.
The relationship became a strategic partnership covering security, economy, and technology, helping lead the West politically and economically. The United States represented the military and political power, while Germany represented Europe’s economic weight.
Cooperation inside NATO continued, with occasional political disputes, but within the framework of a stable alliance.
A Turning Point for Europe
After roughly 75 years of close alliance and cooperation, the relationship may now be moving in another direction. If this trajectory continues, the consequences will not be limited to Germany. They will affect Europe as a whole.
That wider European impact, and the possible scenarios facing the continent, require a separate discussion.
