From the first day of the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran, following what is described as a diplomatic track of deception, the military outcome appeared pre determined. Senior figures within the Revolutionary Guard, military leadership and intelligence services were targeted, culminating in the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
It is a painful blow, indeed the most severe strike the Iranian Revolution has faced since its establishment. Iran’s retaliatory capacity has not corrected the imbalance, and its response has been marked by what observers describe as strategic miscalculation, directing fire towards neighbouring states including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. This is widely viewed as a strategic error that will weigh heavily on Tehran’s relations with these countries, some of which had undertaken strenuous mediation efforts to avert war, as Qatar did, or Oman, which remained outside the direct line of confrontation.
For its part, Israel has described the coordinated military operation with the United States as the largest in its history.
The recent American strikes form part of a series in the United States Iran confrontation under President Donald Trump, beginning with the targeting of General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, extending to what was termed the Twelve Day War in June 2025, and preceded by Israeli operations against Iran’s regional allies, particularly Hezbollah, including the pager operation targeting its cadres and culminating in the assassination of its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.
The latest war waged by the United States and Israel is being framed as a decisive battle, with regime change in Iran elevated as an explicit objective.
The world, and the region in particular, are now called upon not merely to reduce tensions, but to develop new frameworks for regional security and stability, in order to avoid what United Nations Secretary General António Guterres described, during a Security Council meeting following the outbreak of war, as an abyss threatening both the region and the world.
From Nuclear Limits to Regime Change
The declared objectives have expanded beyond halting the nuclear programme, dismantling ballistic missile capabilities and curbing what the United States calls Iran’s regional proxies. Regime change has emerged as the new parameter in the ongoing war.
Domestic unrest in Iran in December 2025, driven by the erosion of purchasing power among broad segments of society and the collapse of the wall of fear, contributed to weakening the system. The harsh repression of protests further eroded public support and deepened internal and external isolation.
Whatever military steps Iran may take following the first day of war, whether closing the Strait of Hormuz, launching missiles towards Israel or carrying out suicide operations, are unlikely to alter the balance of power or compensate for the blows it has sustained.
From the first day alone, the war has produced geopolitical consequences at both regional and global levels. Foremost among them is the demonstration of American intelligence and military dominance, a message extending beyond Iran to Washington’s principal rivals, China and Russia, and to a lesser extent Europe.
The operation also reflects the governing style of President Trump. It proceeded without reliance on United Nations cover or international law, and diplomacy is portrayed as having served as a tactical façade for military planning, as previously alleged in the case of Venezuela. As US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated, the American president acts on his declared threats.
Among the immediate outcomes has been the strengthening of the American president’s domestic standing and the reassertion of the United States as the leading global military power and central international actor.
Notably, neither China nor Russia moved to express solidarity with Iran at the level of major powers, nor did Pakistan at the regional level.
Within Iran itself, the first day of war revealed military weakness in response and a pronounced state of isolation, both domestically and internationally.
A System Under Pressure
American and Israeli officials have not concealed their objective of toppling the regime. What appeared difficult to achieve following the Twelve Day War is now portrayed as attainable without American ground forces, given the regime’s perceived fragility, declining legitimacy and the possibility of fractures within its military and security leadership.
One scenario under discussion involves coordination between the United States and elements within the Iranian establishment, particularly within the army, in opposition to the Revolutionary Guard. Reference has been made to statements by President Trump on his Truth Social platform suggesting such dynamics, alongside the intensification of public anger.
Even if the regime manages to endure in the short term, it would do so at significant cost, deepening its isolation and further weakening its public standing. In this reading, Iran’s political order has entered what is described as a programmed phase of decline.
The potential collapse of the Iranian regime is no longer framed as a remote assumption but as a tangible possibility. Such a development would reshape the Middle East, which for nearly half a century has been influenced by the Iranian Revolution, the so called Shiite crescent, and the discourse of resistance against hegemonic powers that has shaped political imagination and regional political culture.
This would represent a strategic transformation comparable in magnitude to the fall of the Soviet Union and the cascading consequences it produced in Eastern Europe.
From the same perspective, any change in Iran’s leadership would carry profound implications for the region, requiring anticipatory planning irrespective of moral considerations or strict conformity with international law.
Careful management of potential transitions is essential to avoid negative repercussions that could reproduce the damaging precedents of earlier American military interventions which achieved tactical success but resulted in catastrophic geostrategic consequences, such as the Gulf War of 1991, Somalia in 1993, Afghanistan in 2001 and the Iraq War of 2003.
The world, and above all the region, are called upon not only to de escalate tensions but to formulate new security arrangements that prevent the descent into the abyss warned of by United Nations Secretary General António Guterres at the Security Council following the outbreak of war.
