Since the announcement of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on 25 January 2025, the situation has carried two distinct dimensions. The first involved prisoner exchanges, the halt of the war of annihilation, and the international conference in Sharm El Sheikh chaired by US President Donald Trump, who described it as a historic achievement.
The second dimension, however, has been the transition from full scale war to what can only be described as half a war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sustained this through daily bombardment and the withholding of aid, keeping Gaza under fire, martyrdom, hunger, deprivation of medicine, shelter, hospitals, and tents that protect civilians from harsh winter systems, floods, frost and storms.
Within this context, the Rafah crossing was opened in both directions. Yet its operation has been tightly controlled by Netanyahu, who sets the conditions for departure and return in a way that renders the opening almost equivalent to closure. Departures are limited to a small number of the sick and wounded, 150 individuals accompanied by two escorts each, while only 50 are permitted to return, following interrogation, mistreatment and humiliation.
In effect, Rafah has become part of the mechanism sustaining the half war in Gaza. This reality renders Trump’s celebration of the ceasefire agreement as an achievement hollow and illusory. Gaza remains in a state of war as defined by Netanyahu’s strategy. Trump’s formation of a global peace council under his chairmanship, with oversight by Nikolay Mladenov and assistance from Tony Blair, both described as deeply aligned with Zionist positions, remains largely symbolic. The proposed national body is still awaiting Netanyahu’s approval to enter. What has been declared as an achievement remains, in practice, a media framework rather than a tangible transformation.
Misreading Gaza and the Resistance
Any assessment of Gaza that overlooks the continued state of war is fundamentally flawed. The resistance remains armed and maintains security control in areas under its authority. Predicting Gaza’s future without accounting for the resistance and its weapons is described as illusion.
Further evidence of continued armed resistance lies in popular sentiment. Despite claims that Gaza is no longer fit for life, approximately 80,000 people have demanded to return. This position persists despite Netanyahu’s repeated violations of the ceasefire and what is described as Trump’s alignment with Israeli policy.
The West Bank and the Continuity of Resistance
This miscalculation extends to the West Bank. Overlooking the possibility of renewed forms of resistance disregards a history that stretches from the Battle of Jenin Camp in 2002 to the present. The West Bank has witnessed knife attacks, vehicle ramming operations, individual actions attributed to what have been called lone actors, including figures such as Ghaleb Abu Al Qi’an, Diaa Hamarsheh and Raad Hazem, as well as organised armed formations such as the Jenin Brigade and the Lion’s Den in Nablus. Waves of uprising have also formed part of this pattern.
It is therefore viewed as misguided to claim that the West Bank will not rise in resistance against annexation, settlement expansion, violations at Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, and infringements at the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron.
From Gaza to Iran
Finally, it is considered erroneous to assert that the future belongs decisively to American Zionist dominance. Whether war between the United States and Iran erupts or not, confrontation remains at its peak. Declaring outcomes before events unfold is premature. When developments do materialise, such predictions are likely to be disappointed, beginning with Gaza, passing through Lebanon, and extending to Iran.
