While major powers remain preoccupied with escalating conflict zones elsewhere in the world, a looming famine crisis in Somalia is emerging that could prove to be the most severe since the devastating famine of 2011.
The World Food Programme has issued a stark warning that vital food assistance may come to a complete halt by April 2026 unless urgent funding of 95 million US dollars is secured.
The United Nations World Food Programme stated that its life-saving food and nutrition assistance in Somalia could cease by April next year if new funding is not obtained, placing millions at risk of worsening hunger.
According to the agency, an estimated 4.4 million people are currently facing crisis-level food insecurity. Of these, nearly one million are enduring severe hunger, driven by insufficient rainfall, ongoing conflict, and a sharp decline in humanitarian funding.
An Alarming Pace of Deterioration
Ross Smith, Director of Emergency Preparedness and Response at the World Food Programme, said in a press statement that the situation is deteriorating at an alarming pace. He added, “Families have lost everything, and many are on the brink. Without immediate emergency food support, conditions will rapidly worsen.”
The programme has already reduced assistance from 2.2 million beneficiaries to just over 600,000 due to funding shortfalls. Nutrition programmes for pregnant and breastfeeding women, as well as for young children, have also been drastically scaled back.
The Shadow of 2011
The memory of 2011 continues to haunt Somalia. International delays in responding to early warning signs led to the deaths of 260,000 people, half of them children under the age of five, in what became the worst famine in the Horn of Africa.
Although warning indicators had been emerging since 2010, the world did not officially declare famine in Somalia until deaths from hunger were already escalating.
Today, the signs appear even more ominous. A funding gap that peaked in February 2026 forced the UN agency to reduce the number of beneficiaries from 2.2 million to just 640,000.
Drought, armed conflict, rising food prices, and shrinking harvests are once again pushing Somali families to the edge of starvation.
Displacement and Security Crises
The 2011 famine demonstrated that hunger is a primary driver of instability in the Horn of Africa. At the time, more than 1.5 million Somalis were displaced, with hundreds of thousands fleeing to camps in Kenya, creating a demographic and security crisis whose repercussions continue to this day.
Armed groups also exploited the situation, recruiting hundreds of young men. Experts now warn that a similar scenario could unfold in 2026 if assistance is indeed suspended.
Estimates suggest that halting aid could force an additional half a million people to flee within months. Many would not remain internally displaced but would move towards the borders with Kenya and Ethiopia.
Journalist Mohannad Bab, who closely follows African affairs, stated that current conditions in Somalia resemble those that preceded the 2011 famine.
In remarks to Arabi21, he said: “International organisations have issued their warnings, but the response appears weak, as the world is absorbed in other international crises.”
He noted that the Horn of Africa is already burdened by tensions and multiple crises, and that any famine in Somalia would further destabilise the fragile region.
He also predicted that thousands of Somali displaced persons could flow into neighbouring countries at the beginning of the coming summer if there is no swift international response.
He explained that, amid displacement caused by the war in Sudan, tensions in Chad, and broader unrest across the region, any new influx of Somali refugees would have catastrophic consequences for the wider area.
Observers of African affairs believe that the suspension of aid in April would mark the end of Somalia’s fragile stability and trigger the largest wave of displacement in the Horn of Africa, placing enormous security and diplomatic pressure on neighbouring states already grappling with multiple crises.
Analysts warn that displacement from rural areas could transform the outskirts of the capital, Mogadishu, into hotspots for disease outbreaks and organised crime due to the absence of necessities. It may also drive further migration towards Yemen in search of survival.
Somalia remains one of the countries most vulnerable to famine in the world. Its location within an arid climatic zone marked by sharply declining annual rainfall over consecutive years has led to drying wells and widespread livestock deaths, on which a significant proportion of the population depends.
Over the past century, Somalia has endured repeated severe famines that have killed and displaced millions, most notably in 1964, 1992, and 2011.
Observers stress that Somalia’s crisis will not remain confined within its borders. Experience shows that hunger in the Horn of Africa is a key driver of instability in the Red Sea basin and along major global trade routes.
Specialists argue that the 95 million dollars urgently requested by the World Food Programme should be viewed as an investment in regional security. Without immediate action before April, the world risks not only the loss of thousands of lives but also the opening of a new chapter of displacement and unrest that could engulf much of the region.
