Israeli researcher Ron Ben Yishai stated that US President Donald Trump has altered his approach towards Iran, moving from the option of a “limited strike” to embracing a vision of a relatively prolonged and wide-scale military campaign that could last for weeks, should negotiations fail to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon.
In an article published on Sunday in the Hebrew newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, Ben Yishai wrote that although Trump insists on exhausting diplomatic channels and continuing the policy of “maximum pressure” through economic sanctions while maintaining a military threat, he now appears inclined towards a strategy of “crushing” rather than a short operation lasting one or two days.
He explained that US intelligence agencies, the Pentagon, and US Central Command are currently preparing a comprehensive offensive plan similar to Operation “Am Kalavi”, but broader, more intense, and longer in duration.
Expanding Military Preparations
Ben Yishai noted that the Pentagon’s operational order directing the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford to sail towards the Middle East has given practical credibility to this direction. The carrier, the newest in the US Navy fleet, is capable of conducting 150 combat sorties per day and carries 75 aircraft, including F-35C, F-16, and F-18 fighter jets.
It is accompanied by six missile destroyers and possibly a submarine capable of launching 150 Tomahawk missiles. Meanwhile, the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is sailing in the Gulf of Oman alongside three destroyers, a submarine, and additional vessels.
According to the article, the Pentagon decided to replace the Nimitz-class carrier George Bush with the Gerald Ford, which had previously been positioned off Iran’s coast after 7 October as part of an earlier deterrence message.
Information published in Washington, as cited by the writer, indicates that the Ford will be stationed in the Mediterranean Sea off the northern coast of the occupied Palestinian territories to participate in their defence and strike targets in northern and western Iran. Full operational readiness is expected by the end of next week.
Ben Yishai stated that the naval force in the region would include two aircraft carriers, between 11 and 13 missile destroyers, two or three submarines, and ten landing and supply ships. The number of fighter bombers would reach approximately 250 aircraft, including 150 aboard the carriers, in addition to 70 refuelling aircraft and 30 early warning, intelligence, and electronic warfare aircraft. Regional defences would also be reinforced with Patriot and THAAD missile batteries.
Objectives of the Campaign
The writer argued that this force, combined with the Israeli occupation air force, would provide highly precise offensive capabilities and unprecedented destructive power in the Middle East, alongside effective defence against ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. More than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles, with a range of up to 1,700 kilometres, are described as the primary offensive asset.
Ben Yishai added that Trump chose the extended campaign option after being convinced by the Pentagon, American military experts, Netanyahu, and Israeli security officials who visited Washington, that a short strike would not prevent Iran from continuing nuclear weapons development but would only delay it. It would neither topple the regime nor compel significant concessions.
According to the article, the campaign’s objectives would focus on four main axes: weakening the regime’s ability, particularly the Revolutionary Guard and Basij forces, to suppress citizens; completing the destruction of nuclear facilities to extend the time required to resume enrichment and warhead development; destroying most of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities; and imposing an agreement subject to strict international oversight and surprise inspections.
Ben Yishai referred to intelligence estimates indicating that Iran possesses 408 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, sufficient to produce ten bombs. He added that even after a short term setback, the regime would remain capable of launching missiles, closing the Strait of Hormuz, and threatening 11 US bases in the region.
Anticipated Iranian Response
The article examined potential Iranian responses, predicting that Tehran would attempt to target US bases and vessels and possibly close the Strait of Hormuz. Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias could participate in supporting Iran. The writer suggested that the Israeli occupation state would likely remain on high alert, expecting missiles and drones to be launched towards it in the early hours of any American strike.
Ben Yishai revealed that understandings between Trump and Netanyahu deepened during a meeting in Washington two weeks ago. It was reportedly agreed that Israel would participate in the campaign at a certain stage and that Trump would grant a green light for an Israeli operation against Iran’s missile capabilities if any agreement failed to impose substantial restrictions on them.
He noted that Trump values Netanyahu’s strategic analyses and the capabilities of Israeli security officials, despite the presence of figures within his circle who do not sympathise with the prime minister.
The article also highlighted pressure from Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt to avoid striking Iran, fearing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on oil facilities, or refugee flows.
Ben Yishai outlined a proposed sequence for the campaign: an intensive intelligence and logistical preparation phase, including evacuating US forces from threatened bases in Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait; an opening strike phase involving hundreds of Tomahawk missiles targeting leadership sites, air defences, and missile and naval facilities; a decisive phase in which the Israeli occupation state joins the assault targeting missile launch platforms and development facilities; and a final phase in which Trump declares objectives achieved and reaches a ceasefire.
He indicated that the final decision on the timing of the attack has not yet been determined. The Pentagon may advise waiting until after Ramadan, but the possibility of miscalculation or a pre emptive strike remains, amid ongoing Israeli and American preparations for a broad confrontation scenario.
