An Israeli general has shed light on what he described as US President Donald Trump’s plan to establish a new global order in the Middle East, stating that “it is interesting how, even in the twenty first century, it is still possible to create deliberate ambiguity around intentions”.
Lieutenant Colonel Amit Yagur, a reserve officer, wrote in an article published by the Hebrew newspaper Maariv that “in recent days, and over the past two weeks, US forces have more than doubled their presence in the Middle East”.
Yagur pointed out that “in the past day alone, more than 22 refuelling aircraft were deployed, alongside around 13 transport aircraft and an additional early warning aircraft, while the USS Ford carrier strike group, which includes naval vessels and around 90 additional aircraft, is heading to the region”.
An Unprecedented Force
He continued: “In addition, 19 further refuelling aircraft departed from the United States to Europe, accompanied by fighter jets. The USS Lincoln carrier strike group has entrenched its presence in the region and is engaged in intelligence gathering, accompanied by a nuclear submarine equipped with Tomahawk missiles”.
He noted that “in practical terms, this constitutes an unprecedented force in both scale and financial expenditure. It is intended to serve as a ‘big stick’ and a threat within negotiations with Tehran. At the same time, however, the Iranian regime continues to threaten the United States and escalate tensions, even during talks”.
Yagur stated that “Iran conducted manoeuvres to close the Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Arabian Gulf, and is expected to hold joint drills with a Russian destroyer in the northern Indian Ocean, in unusually close proximity to the area where the USS Lincoln is operating”.
The Israeli general claimed that “in Iran, some capabilities have been restored, but the real obstacle lies in the number of launch platforms, many of which were destroyed, in addition to severe damage to air defence capabilities. This means that current capabilities are insufficient for a prolonged campaign, and that any conflict, if it occurs, may be shorter than expected”.
Yagur added that “by negotiating exclusively over nuclear issues and refusing to discuss the other matters raised by Trump, Iran is effectively asking him to become a ‘second Obama’ – the president who previously signed the nuclear agreement with Tehran. Yet if there is one thing Trump strongly dislikes, it is being compared to Obama, particularly given that he withdrew from the previous agreement. Signing a similar new deal could be interpreted as an admission of error”.
Containing Russia and China
He continued: “The ‘Make America Great Again’ concept, as a supreme interest, seeks to contain Russia and China and impose full American dominance in the Middle East. What stands in its way? Iran, regarded as a front for both powers, along with the revolutionary nature of its regime, which has undermined regional stability for years”.
He stressed that “the US administration no longer trusts Iran, especially the current administration, which is characterised by its hardline positions towards Tehran. Added to this are defiant statements from Iran, the suppression of internal protests, and unconfirmed assessments alleging Iranian involvement in an attempt to assassinate Trump prior to the election”.
Yagur concluded that “what is unfolding on the ground, combined with our understanding of the current administration, particularly Trump, and the absence of any real progress in negotiations, brings together both capabilities and intentions, significantly increasing the likelihood of military action in the near future”.
He questioned whether such military action would be designed to advance negotiations or to topple the regime, adding that he leans towards the latter. He also noted that during what he referred to as the year of Kalavi, negotiations were likewise granted two weeks, yet in reality, military action began just days later.
