The Washington Post published a report highlighting the motivations that led Trump to halt a strike on Iran.
The newspaper said that President Donald Trump and his national security advisers considered launching a strike against Iran, but ultimately decided to step back due to the constraints imposed by the crisis, including rising costs and objections from key United States allies in the Middle East.
Late on Wednesday morning, it appeared to most Middle Eastern countries and official Washington that President Donald Trump was about to issue a decision to carry out devastating air strikes on Iran, marking the second major use of American military force in just two weeks, following the Delta Force operation in Venezuela to capture President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. However, the official order was not issued, even though senior security advisers expected his imminent approval of one of the military options presented to him and were preparing for a long night.
The Pentagon announced that the guided missile destroyer USS Roosevelt had entered the Arabian Gulf.
According to a well-informed source cited by the newspaper, allies were alerted to the possibility of a United States military strike, and ships and aircraft began moving. Personnel at the large United States Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar were advised to evacuate to avoid an expected Iranian response.
Trump had earlier promised Iranian protesters, in a social media post on Tuesday morning, saying, “Help is on the way,” and urged them to “take control” of regime institutions.
Many American and foreign officials interpreted this as signalling that the United States would intervene militarily, as he remained open to assisting in the form of pressure on Iran to halt the killing of protesters.
The newspaper believes that the decisive moment came on Wednesday when Trump received word from his envoy Steve Witkoff that the Iranian government had cancelled the scheduled executions of 800 people, according to a senior American official.
Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, “We will watch the situation and see what happens.”
The official added that United States intelligence confirmed on Thursday that the executions were not carried out. This rapid midweek shift in Trump’s position, which puzzled many of his advisers and left Iranian opposition figures feeling abandoned, reflected intense internal and external pressure, according to interviews with more than a dozen American and Middle Eastern officials, current and former, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Several advisers said the president confronted the unpredictability of destabilising another Middle Eastern country, in addition to the limitations of even the vast American military apparatus.
The report continued that after the United States deployed a carrier strike group and accompanying naval fleet to the Caribbean on Trump’s orders, Pentagon officials grew concerned that American military power in the Middle East was below the optimal level to deter an anticipated Iranian attack.
Two American officials, one current and one former, said that Israel also expressed concern, having used large numbers of interceptor missiles against Iranian missiles during the 12-day war in June.
A senior Arab diplomat and a Gulf official said that key United States allies, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt, contacted the White House to urge restraint and a turn to diplomacy.
These Sunni-majority countries have long felt threatened by Shiite-majority Iran, but increasingly fear the emergence of zones of instability in their neighbourhood.
Most importantly, according to the newspaper, Trump realised that strikes on Iran would be chaotic and could lead to potential economic disruption, broader wars, and threats to the 30,000 American troops in the Middle East, unlike the “limited” operations he ordered to destroy alleged drug smuggling boats, capture Maduro, target Islamic State fighters in Syria, or damage Iran’s nuclear programme.
A former American official familiar with the decision-making process told the Washington Post, “He wants operations like Venezuela. This would be far more chaotic.”
Iranian protests, the largest in the 46-year history of the Islamic Republic, appear to have temporarily subsided amid a violent government crackdown. A senior European official in direct contact with the Iranian leadership said, “The regime seems to have barely survived.” However, Iranians who risked taking to the streets are deeply angry at Trump’s retreat, adding that they “feel betrayed and deeply despairing.”
The newspaper noted that while a strike is clearly off the table for now, Trump and his senior advisers have kept their options open, possibly buying time while awaiting the deployment of the United States aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East, according to two officials.
Officials familiar with the matter said that Lincoln was in the South China Sea on Friday, meaning it would reach the Middle East in more than a week.
The newspaper said Trump was receiving conflicting advice inside the White House. According to an official and a person close to the White House, Vice President J D Vance, known for his scepticism of foreign interventions, supported striking Iran. The person close to the White House explained that Vance justified his position by arguing that Trump had drawn a red line by warning Iran against killing protesters and was obliged to enforce it.
In the Oval Office on Tuesday evening, Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe, known for his hard-line stance on Iran, used a secure iPad designated for presidential intelligence briefings to show Trump videos obtained secretly depicting regime violence against Iranian protesters and bodies in the streets, according to a former official familiar with the decision-making process.
Such images had influenced Trump during previous crises. In 2017, graphic images of a chemical weapons attack carried out by the Syrian regime under Bashar al-Assad prompted him to order missile strikes.
The CIA was tasked with gathering intelligence on the violence, but it remains unclear whether Ratcliffe expressed an opinion regarding military strikes.
At the same time, other Trump advisers urged caution, including Witkoff and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, according to a source close to the White House.
A senior American official said that Witkoff, in particular, listened directly to the concerns of Arab allies in the region and sought to avoid another round of reciprocal violence.
Another source said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for patience and allowing the economic sanctions imposed on Iran to take effect.
A source familiar with the matter told the newspaper that General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a trusted adviser to Trump, was present at the White House throughout the day as the Department of Defence and American intelligence agencies presented options for attack. He concluded that the expected benefit of an attack was unjustified and that the consequences would be too severe, according to a source close to the Trump administration.
The same source said, “Would the strike lead to regime change? The answer is no, absolutely.” He added that “the negative impact of any attack outweighs any potential benefit in terms of punishing the regime. Ultimately, it comes down to a cost-benefit analysis.”
The newspaper said Iran was aware of the United States transfer of military equipment, making a strike appear imminent. Tehran contacted the Trump administration, and according to the same source, a text message from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Witkoff “also helped calm the situation.”
Shortly after learning of the message, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he had learned that the killings had stopped, according to an American official. On Friday, as he prepared to leave the White House for his Mar-a-Lago resort, Trump said, “I very much appreciate their cancelling” the attack on protesters.
Iran was not the only country to urgently contact the White House. According to a senior diplomat and a Gulf official, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, and other Arab allies rallied to urge Trump to stick with diplomatic options with Iran.
The Gulf official added, “The message to Washington is to avoid military action. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Egypt agree that this would have security and economic repercussions across the entire region, which would ultimately affect the United States.”
According to a Saudi diplomat and an American official, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke with Trump by phone during the week to present his perspective.
Mohammed bin Salman and other United States allied leaders in the Middle East were concerned about Iran’s response if the United States launched military strikes.
Iran had begun warning Gulf states that its response would not be as restrained as it was after the American attack on its nuclear facilities in June, when Iran announced its intentions in advance and then launched around twelve missiles at Al Udeid Air Base, according to several officials.
There were also fears that Iran-aligned factions, including Hezbollah, could carry out retaliatory attacks, posing a greater danger in the absence of an American carrier strike group in the region.
Israel was also unprepared, particularly given the absence of significant American naval support.
The Washington Post cited a source close to the White House saying that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who launched a wide-ranging military and intelligence operation against Iranian nuclear facilities and scientists in June, called President Trump on Wednesday and asked him not to carry out a strike because Israel was not fully prepared to defend itself, noting that they spoke twice.
An American official told the newspaper that one of the main factors contributing to Israel’s vulnerability was the absence of major American military assets, which Israel had increasingly relied on to intercept Iranian retaliatory strikes during the skirmishes between the two countries over the past 21 months.
The official added that American support came at the expense of Washington’s growing stockpile of interceptor missiles. Despite all these efforts, Arab allies remained uncertain of success.
The report indicated that a key factor tipping the balance was Trump’s lack of confidence that the available military options would produce a decisive and predictable outcome, or avoid severe consequences for the region or for his record of using American military force swiftly and precisely, according to a senior Arab diplomat.
The newspaper continued that diplomatic efforts encouraged Trump to pull back, according to a Saudi diplomat, European officials, and a person familiar with the matter.
At the Pentagon on Wednesday, aides to senior commanders were prepared to stay late into the night in anticipation of American strikes.
At around 3.30 pm, they received notice that they could return home as usual. A knowledgeable source said that Vance ultimately agreed with the president’s decision to delay operations.
The president will have another opportunity to approve strikes against Iran within the next two or three weeks, when American forces heading to the region will have reached their positions, helping reassure Israel about its ability to defend itself, officials said.
