Modern Turkish-American relations were established in the late 1940s. Although the two countries became closely linked through a military alliance within the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, the level of bilateral relations has never fully matched the depth of that alliance, fluctuating between periods of improvement and decline.
In recent years, disagreements between the two sides have reached their peak. Turkey accused the United States of involvement in the failed coup attempt of July 2016. Tensions then escalated during the first term of President Donald Trump, following Ankara’s detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson on charges of cooperating with terrorist organisations. Trump responded by imposing tariffs on Turkish imports. In 2018, the Turkish lira experienced a sharp depreciation of around 40 per cent as a result of this dispute.
This disruption in bilateral relations drew considerable attention, particularly because a deeper examination reveals that both parties need one another. This has become more evident following the Russia-Ukraine war and the renewed importance of Turkey’s strategic role for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, a role that had diminished after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
It is also notable that relations between Ankara and Democratic administrations have generally been marked by tension.
Alongside the failed coup attempt in Turkey during the presidency of Barack Obama, many recall how his successor, Joe Biden pledged before the 2023 presidential elections to remove President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from power.
Biden also acknowledged the Armenian genocide of 1915 in 2021, a first for a sitting American president. This issue is regarded as highly sensitive in Turkey.
For these reasons, the Turkish government and research circles close to it had hoped that Trump’s second term would represent a major turning point in Turkish American relations, particularly given the personal dynamics between the two leaders.
However, despite more than a year having passed since Trump returned to the White House, unresolved issues remain unchanged. Additional disputes have also emerged, collectively forming obstacles that continue to keep bilateral relations in a state of tension.
Turkey’s vision for improving relations was outlined by Erdogan in written responses to questions from Bloomberg in early January. He detailed all the key points of contention between the two countries.
Turkey’s outreach towards the United States aims to absorb Trump’s anger over any cooperation between Ankara and Moscow in the energy sector. Turkey is preparing to receive 1,500 shipments of American gas over the next 10 to 15 years.
The uncertain F-35
In 2017, near the end of Trump’s first term, the United States imposed sanctions on Turkey under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act due to Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defence system, following the Obama administration’s refusal to supply Turkey with the Patriot system.
Washington did not stop there. In 2019, under the Biden administration, it decided to remove Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet manufacturing programme for the same reason.
Despite repeated demands and years of negotiations, the crisis has remained unresolved. Erdogan has therefore raised the issue again, describing Turkey’s removal from the F-35 programme as an unfair decision. He stated that he personally conveyed this view to Trump during their meeting at the White House in September 2025.
According to Turkish media reports, Ankara faces three possible scenarios to resolve the crisis.
The first involves returning the system to Russia. Unconfirmed reports suggested that Erdogan discussed this with Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Turkmenistan in December. While the Kremlin denied these reports, Ankara declined to comment.
The second scenario involves not deploying the system and keeping it in storage while committing not to use it.
The third option is transferring it to a third country, such as Ukraine or Syria. Turkey has previously rejected sending the system to Ukraine and has not yet commented on the possibility of deploying it in Syria.
From this perspective, it appears difficult for Turkey to abandon the system for two reasons.
First, Turkey is approaching the acquisition of its domestically produced Kaan fighter jet, a fifth generation aircraft that has been described as potentially surpassing the F 35 in capability. Ankara has also recently succeeded in purchasing 24 Eurofighter Typhoon jets from Britain and its partners. This means Turkey’s urgent need for the F 35 is likely to diminish over time.
Second, Turkey believes that the United States’ argument against its possession of the Russian system, namely that it is incompatible with NATO technology and poses a threat to the alliance, is unconvincing. Three NATO member states already possess the Russian S-300 air defence system, namely Greece, Bulgaria, and Slovakia, without any objection from Washington.
From Ankara’s viewpoint, the issue therefore goes beyond technical arguments and reflects a clear American desire to leave Turkey without an air defence system in the face of any potential attack. This concern has intensified recently with Israel entering the arena of actual threats.
Adjusting the energy path
Turkey maintains close relations with Russia in the energy sector, reinforced by several major projects and agreements.
In September, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova described this cooperation by stating that energy cooperation has reached a truly strategic level. Russia is one of Turkey’s most important suppliers of natural gas, and the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant has become a flagship high-technology project in the energy sector.
However, Turkey understands that Trump will not allow Russia to expand its energy reach and will seek to curb its exports by imposing sanctions on cooperating states.
Erdogan therefore stressed that Turkey has significantly increased its liquefied natural gas supplies, particularly from the United States, noting that this strengthens Turkey’s important position within the supply chain.
Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar also stated on the sidelines of the Global LNG Summit held in Istanbul in December that the Turkish Petroleum Corporation has entered advanced talks with major American energy producers to purchase stakes in US exploration and production projects.
This outreach towards the United States aims to absorb Trump’s anger over Turkish Russian cooperation in the energy sector. Turkey is preparing to receive 1,500 shipments of American gas over the next 10 to 15 years.
Turkey’s dependence on Russian gas has also declined to less than 40%, after previously exceeding 50% only a few years ago.
However, this policy is not expected to result in a complete closure of the energy file with Russia, given Turkey’s continued need for cooperation. Russia is constructing the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, which Turkey relies on heavily to reduce dependence on gas.
Halkbank and silent tension
The case of Halkbank, one of three state-owned banks in Turkey, represents a focal point of tension in Turkish-American relations.
The case, which erupted in 2019, is based on allegations that the bank circumvented US economic sanctions imposed on Iran. The value of the financial transfers at the centre of these accusations is estimated at around 20 billion dollars, according to the indictment issued by the US federal prosecutor.
Turkey argues that these sanctions are not binding on it, as they were not issued by the United Nations Security Council but are unilateral American measures.
The case has caused severe damage to the bank’s reputation and financial standing, despite its status as one of the key pillars of the state’s financial system.
Erdogan has therefore raised the issue again, affirming that Turkey considers these allegations to be unfounded. He pointed to ongoing talks with the United States to ensure that the bank does not face what he described as unjust sanctions.
Turkish forces in Gaza
Turkey’s participation in peacekeeping forces in the Gaza Strip remains unresolved at the time of writing.
The United States appears inclined to allow Turkish forces to enter the territory, viewing them as capable of playing a prominent role in achieving the objectives of Trump’s peace plan. The Israeli government, however, firmly opposes this move, fearing it could support Hamas and its military wing.
According to Israeli media, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has exhausted his efforts to persuade Trump not to permit Turkish forces to enter Gaza. The final decision now rests with the White House.
In this context, Erdogan reiterated to Washington the importance of Turkey’s presence in the territory, stating that Turkey enjoys a central role in such a mission due to its deep historical ties with the Palestinian side, its previous security and diplomatic channels with Israel, and its regional influence as a NATO member.
Mediation in Ukraine
The US administration relies on Turkey to play a mediating role in efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Ankara has followed a balanced diplomatic approach since the outbreak of the conflict, maintaining relations with both sides and positioning itself at an equal distance from each.
This approach enabled Turkey to bring the parties to the negotiating table and nearly succeed in ending the conflict early in 2022 through the Istanbul agreement signed by both sides, before external interventions later derailed it.
Turkey also succeeded, in cooperation with the United Nations, in reaching the grain agreement in July 2022.
Erdogan has therefore reiterated that Turkey is the only actor capable of speaking directly with both the Russian and Ukrainian presidents.
Conclusion
The above illustrates that the suffering of allies in dealing with the United States may be no less than that of adversaries.
Turkey is therefore expected to intensify its efforts this year to find decisive solutions to these disputed files, so that Trump’s second term does not slip away without tangible progress. Otherwise, Ankara risks being confronted once again with a return of the Democrats to the White House, carrying negative and unfavourable views towards Turkey.
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