As the evening of 11 January set in, Iranian air movements entered a more sensitive phase. International aviation notices known as NOTAMs revealed a clear shift from transport and redeployment measures to steps associated with preparing potential launch corridors for missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.
This assessment appeared in an analysis by Talal Nahle, director of IntelSky, which specialises in tracking air and military activity through open source intelligence. The analysis was reported by Bint Jbeil as part of its dedicated coverage of regional developments.
During the afternoon hours, the declared air restrictions focused on moving military units within the country, a familiar pattern during periods of heightened alert or redeployment. After sunset, however, a new series of notices appeared, revealing the clearing of specific airspaces across the country from central Iran towards its western borders. This resembled the establishment of operational air corridors typically used when preparing to launch long-range munitions.
The most prominent of these notices was NOTAM A0398/26, which defined a wide air corridor extending from the provinces of Markazi and Hamadan towards Kermanshah and Ilam along the western border. According to Nahle’s analysis, this type of closure does not resemble defensive restrictions around sensitive facilities. Instead, it is most often used to secure a corridor free of civilian or friendly aircraft, allowing the passage of ballistic missiles or swarms of drones from launch bases deep inside Iran towards external targets, whether in Iraq or in the direction of Israel.
At the same time, air restrictions were activated around the Jask base and port on the Sea of Oman under NOTAM A0390/26. Jask represents Iran’s most important maritime platform outside the Strait of Hormuz and hosts Kilo-class submarines as well as long-range anti-ship missile systems. IntelSky’s analysis, cited by Bint Jbeil, indicates that placing this base under air closure reflects the fortification of what can be described as Iran’s rear maritime arm, in case the scope of confrontation expands in the Gulf or the Indian Ocean.
Above the capital Tehran, NOTAM A0392/26 imposed restrictions on low altitude airspace in specific areas of the city. These restrictions, according to the assessment relayed by Talal Nahle, are usually associated with the activation of short-range air defence systems known as SHORAD, such as the Majid or Tor M1 systems. These are designed to intercept drones or cruise missiles flying between buildings at low altitudes.
In the south west, Iran announced restrictions under NOTAM A0395/26 over Vahdati Air Base in Dezful. This is one of Iran’s most advanced offensive air bases due to its proximity to the Iraqi border and its reliance on F-5 aircraft designated for rapid air responses. According to the analysis, placing the base in this status indicates that it is prepared to serve as the first line of engagement in any potential aerial confrontation along the western front.
Taken together, these notices draw a picture of what military aviation experts describe as the opening of an operational corridor. When a state clears an air corridor stretching from deep within its territory to its borders, while simultaneously securing its rear maritime bases and activating short-range air defences within its capital, this signals a transition from a defensive readiness phase to a stage of operational preparedness.
While NOTAMs do not necessarily mean that a political decision to launch an attack has been taken, they do, as explained in Talal Nahle’s analysis published by Bint Jbeil, indicate that the military infrastructure required to carry out offensive operations or to repel a counter strike has become technically ready. In this context, the western air corridor remains the most sensitive indicator, as it represents the foundational structure for any missile or aerial launch beyond the borders.
In this sense, it can be said that Iran has concluded the logistical preparation phase and moved into a stage of operational capability, where corridors are open, defences are active, and forward bases are on alert, pending decisions by the political leadership in the coming hours or days.
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