At a time when tensions between Israel and Turkey are intensifying, three of Turkey’s most senior officials carried out an unprecedented visit to Damascus, reflecting a notable shift in the regional landscape.
The visit to the Syrian capital included Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defence Minister Yasar Guler, and the head of the National Intelligence Organisation MİT Ibrahim Kalin, in a move that carried clear and powerful messages.
This visit came less than ten days before the deadline granted to the Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, to comply with the 10 March agreement. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that the primary reason for the SDF’s failure to adhere to the agreement was its coordination with Israel, saying that the fact some SDF activities are managed in coordination with Israel currently represents a major obstacle to ongoing talks with Damascus.
In a region where Israeli forces are now only thirty kilometres from the Syrian capital, Fidan for the first time began directing explicit and direct accusations at Israel in this clear manner. In previous televised statements, he had already linked the difficulties of integrating SDF into the Syrian state to the Israeli role.
The most significant statement, however, came from Damascus, where Fidan added a sentence heavy with meaning, saying that Syria’s stability means Turkey’s stability, and that this is of critical importance for Ankara.
The Israeli Response. A Counter Alliance in the Mediterranean
Before the aircraft carrying the Turkish delegation had even touched down on the runway in Ankara, Israel announced a countermove. Images appeared in the media showing the Prime Minister of Greece and the President of the Greek Cypriot administration in Tel Aviv, wearing coordinated blue outfits, in a meeting that appeared to signal the announcement of a new alliance in the eastern Mediterranean.
Greece and Greek Cyprus are among the primary security threats in Turkey’s strategic calculations. Both have held close meetings with Israel to enhance trilateral cooperation in the Mediterranean, delivering an unmistakable political message to Ankara.
During the joint press conference, Benjamin Netanyahu made direct remarks aimed at Turkey, stating that he was addressing those who believe they can rebuild their empire on Israeli land, telling them to forget it, that it will never happen, and that cooperation strengthens Israel’s ability to defend itself.
This statement was not directed at Turkey alone. It carries deeper cultural and political dimensions, seeking to activate fears embedded in Arab consciousness, fears nurtured by Western sources, regarding the return of what is portrayed as the new Ottomans. Just as some Greek politicians attempted to frighten their public by speaking of the return of the Turks, parties in the Middle East have worked to promote the idea that Ankara seeks to revive the Ottoman state.
By aligning himself with the leaders of Greece and Cyprus, Netanyahu sought to inflame this manufactured and deliberately directed fear.
A Qualitative Shift in Israeli-Turkish Relations
For a long time, Greece and Cyprus pursued symbolic policies against Turkey, but this time the situation is different. Cooperation with Israel against Ankara is no longer a populist maneuver, but has evolved into a serious regional policy.
The two states, in coordination with Israel, are attempting to narrow Turkey’s sphere of influence in the Mediterranean and are allowing Israel a military presence near islands adjacent to the Turkish coast, a step that Turkey cannot ignore.
Israel is also moving to cooperate with every party hostile to Turkey. It is strengthening relations with India, which is angered by Turkey’s stance in support of Pakistan, and increasing coordination with certain Arab states that fear the growing Turkish influence in the region. Israeli lobbies in the United States, particularly through evangelical currents, are also active in obstructing Turkish projects on multiple fronts.
These efforts include blocking Turkey’s access to F-35 fighter jets, preventing its participation in peacekeeping missions in Gaza, undermining its humanitarian role, and confronting its communication with Hamas. Members of the US Congress, especially those influenced by Israeli pressure, continue to issue statements hostile to Turkey.
Israel is also continuing a focused media campaign against Turkey’s security project aimed at creating a terrorism free zone. While the Turkish foreign minister was recently in Tehran condemning Israeli aggression, Israel was simultaneously working to persuade Donald Trump to launch a new attack on Iran.
Syria. The Hottest Arena of Confrontation
Syria currently represents the most volatile arena in the struggle for influence between Israel and Turkey. While Turkey presents a unified vision for Syria as a single state with one army and unified territory, Israel continues to support plans to divide the country into three regions through direct military interventions.
Israeli actions have reached the point of targeting an area near the residence of Syrian President Ahmad al Sharaa in Damascus, through bombardment understood as a direct threat that rejecting Israeli policies may carry devastating consequences.
Syria has effectively become a field of confrontation between Ankara and Tel Aviv. While Turkey works to militarily encircle SDF with the assistance of the Syrian army and some armed factions, Israel attempts to undermine these efforts by activating its tools within SDF, particularly the Fehman Hussein group, as well as elements from the Druze and Alawite communities, and even through clandestine networks within the Islamic State organisation.
Could an Attack on SDF Lead to an Expansion of Israeli Occupation?
The deadline granted to SDF to integrate into Syrian state institutions is nearing its end, and Turkey is signalling a potential military action. However, Ankara understands that such an operation could open the door to chaos that Israel would exploit to expand its occupation inside Syria.
In the event of large-scale clashes, Israel could strike Damascus or target vital infrastructure in the country, believing it would face no deterrence. Israel also views SDF, particularly its military wing YPG, as a vital tool to obstruct Turkish moves, and it will not easily accept the disappearance of this entity.
If Israel were to lose this card, other sects and components it uses as tools, such as the Druze and Alawites, may retreat out of fear of meeting the same fate, distancing themselves from it.
Accordingly, Israel is expected to do everything in its power to preserve the SDF and YPG card. The question remains whether it possesses sufficient capacity to succeed, something the coming days will reveal.
Will Turkey Launch a Military Operation Against SDF?
Turkey believes that SDF, geographically and politically besieged, cannot survive for long, giving Ankara the stronger hand on the ground.
Nevertheless, launching a direct military operation involving the Turkish army remains the last option. The more likely strategy is to separate SDF from the Arab tribes that constitute around 75% of its armed elements and whose salaries are paid by the United States, leaving YPG isolated in the field.
Despite Mazloum Abdi announcing that SDF includes 100,000 fighters, real figures according to Turkish intelligence information do not exceed 45,000, including 30,000 from Arab tribes and 15,000 from Kurdish and other groups.
The Turkish armed forces also estimate that the YPG wing possesses between 10,000 and 15,000 armed members, of whom only 8,000 to 10,000 are capable of combat, with the remainder serving in internal security units.
Accordingly, any confrontation is unlikely to see Arab tribes engage in fighting against Turkey or Damascus, and the YPG lacks the capacity to resist a dual assault from both sides. As a result, it has placed all its hopes on Israeli support.
Turkey plans to strip SDF of its Arab allies, then besiege YPG on the ground without direct intervention by its own army, instead relying on allied forces within the Syrian army.
Could War Break Out Between Israel and Turkey?
Repeated statements by Israeli ministers, officials, and research centres indicate that Israel has begun to view Turkey as its primary enemy, shaping its defensive positions accordingly.
Every Turkish move is interpreted in Tel Aviv as a threat. Purchasing aircraft, building warships, producing missiles, presence in Gaza, relations with Hamas, or even exercises in the Mediterranean are all read as existential dangers to Israel.
Recent moves with Cyprus and Greece are part of this approach, but the fiercest battle is taking place within the United States, where Israel uses its influence to obstruct Turkey’s armament programs and its political and economic projects.
So far, Turkey has not officially designated Israel as a threat within its security doctrine, but political, security, and intelligence circles are increasingly stating this openly. Hakan Fidan himself has linked SDF to Israel more than once in recent days, indicating a potential shift in the official stance in the near future.
Even so, an open war between Turkey and Israel would be unlike any other conflict. Turkey, a NATO member state with close ties to the United States and possessing the strongest army and economy in the region, represents a heavyweight adversary. Any clash between it and Israel would produce a global shock and alter the course of events in the Middle East.
For this reason, merely uttering the word war must be approached with the utmost seriousness and caution.
