Iran affairs expert Dr Fatima Al Samadi, senior researcher at the Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, has assessed that renewed clashes or the outbreak of a new military confrontation between Iran and Israel are likely. She affirmed that the scenario of war remains highly probable, given the failure of previous attacks to achieve their strategic objectives, foremost among them ending Iran’s nuclear programme.
During her participation in the programme Al Masa’iya on Al Jazeera Mubasher, Al Samadi stated that confrontation between Iran and Israel is inevitable unless a fundamental change occurs in the political and strategic structures of either side. She noted that the repercussions of this conflict have begun to extend to other regional states, including Turkey, which has started to treat the Israeli threat as a matter of national security, indicating a widening circle of tension across the region.
Al Samadi explained that the strikes targeting Iran did not terminate its nuclear programme. She noted that Tehran entered what she described as a phase of nuclear ambiguity following the Twelve Day War, during which there has been no precise information regarding the size of Iran’s uranium stockpile or the extent of damage inflicted on nuclear facilities. She added that Western, American, and even Israeli reports have cast doubt on narratives claiming decisive achievements against Iran’s nuclear programme.
Widespread Destruction Inside Israel
Al Samadi stressed that the manner in which the previous confrontation ended carries significant implications. She pointed to Israeli reports indicating widespread destruction inside Israel and stated that Tel Aviv was the party that requested a halt to the war after Iran deployed missiles with high destructive capacity during the final days of the confrontation. This, she said, reflected Israel’s inability to bear the cost of continuing the war.
In response to questions regarding the possibility that Israel exaggerates Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, Al Samadi said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu relies on a logic of conflict and war for his political survival. She noted that he may seek a new front following the stagnation of the Gaza war. However, she explained that the military reality indicates that Iran’s missile programme was not damaged to the same extent as its nuclear programme. Iran, she added, rapidly restored production lines and expanded its missile stockpile compared with its pre-war status.
Extensive Reconstruction Efforts
Al Samadi added that she had recently visited Iran and personally observed some of the sites that were targeted by attacks. She confirmed that reconstruction efforts were extensive and swift, to the point that traces of destruction were difficult to detect. She noted that Tehran has become more prepared to withstand another strike but would respond this time more painfully.
Regarding shifts in Iranian strategy, Al Samadi explained that the last confrontation ended the phase of the shadow war between Iran and Israel and elevated the conflict to the level of confrontation. This occurred despite the war revealing major security breaches inside Iran, some of a technical nature, but many linked to human factors. This, she said, prompted Tehran to carry out trials and executions of individuals accused of spying for Israel.
Al Samadi considered that the recent confrontation was beneficial to Iran in terms of testing its capabilities and identifying points of weakness, particularly in the area of missiles and drones. These systems were used for the first time in a real battle against a militarily advanced state. This development returned Iran’s missile programme to the forefront of Western concern and pressure, alongside attempts to include it in any future negotiation track.
Expansion of the Conflict
On the expansion of the conflict, Al Samadi warned that any new confrontation would not remain confined to Iran and Israel. She affirmed that Tehran’s allies in the region, despite the blows they have sustained, have not been removed from the equation and retain the ability to exert influence, even if the forms and levels of participation differ.
On the Iranian domestic front, Al Samadi pointed to the existence of broad debate and disagreement within Iran over how the conflict should be managed. Some currents argue for linking confrontation to Iranian national interest and the scale of potential damage, while others view the battle with Israel as existential and reject any retreat from it. She warned that abandoning this latter approach would undermine one of the ideological foundations of the Islamic Republic.
Al Samadi concluded that the recent war produced a shift in Iranian public sentiment. Voices opposing engagement in conflict with Israel have declined, while nationalist sentiments have risen. These sentiments have framed the confrontation as a defence of Iran itself, not solely of its allies or of the Palestinian cause.
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