An article published by the Hebrew newspaper Israel Hayom, written by Danny Citrinowicz, examined the military maneuver carried out by Iran and the possibility of the outbreak of a war with the occupying state.
Citrinowicz wrote that traces of missiles and drones were seen in Iran’s skies, appearing to be part of a large-scale military exercise aimed at deterring Israel and the United States from launching another attack on Iran. The maneuver was also intended to demonstrate to Iran’s neighbours, and to the Iranian public as well, that Tehran is recovering from last June’s war and is prepared for another confrontation.
The writer added that this maneuver, which was preceded by warning indicators that heightened Israeli concerns that Iran might be preparing for a surprise attack, exposed the danger of miscalculation and deterioration into another military campaign, even if neither side is currently interested in such a development.
Citrinowicz explained that the drills took place amid growing fears within the Iranian leadership of another Israeli attack. This concern appears to have driven Tehran to take this military step to strengthen its deterrence capabilities and send a clear message that its missile systems are being rehabilitated after the damage they sustained.
These maneuvers also coincided with reports published in Israel on the eve of a meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump regarding the speed of Iran’s missile system rehabilitation. This, he argued, clearly demonstrates the perceived necessity in Israel to act against Iran’s growing capabilities in this field, given what is viewed as a significant threat to Israeli defence systems.
The article’s author noted that the conduct of the Israeli security establishment in response to these maneuvers is a direct outcome of the lessons drawn from the events of 7 October, particularly the avoidance of reliance on relaxed or overly optimistic intelligence assumptions.
According to Citrinowicz, the prevailing approach tends to treat the most dangerous scenario as the most likely one. This mindset increases the risk of miscalculation between Israel and Iran. Even if neither side is currently seeking a military campaign, the absence of a channel for conveying messages between the two countries, the severe tension following the war, and assessments that another confrontation is possible all create a reality in which such maneuvers may be perceived by the other side as preparations for a surprise attack.
He continued by stating that since each party seeks to be the initiator rather than the responder, there is a real danger that these movements could lead to uncontrollable escalation. One side may attempt to preempt the other with an offensive initiative, based as well on a misunderstanding of intentions.
Citrinowicz added that in light of expectations that Iran will continue to strengthen its missile production capabilities, the likelihood of escalating rhetoric by senior Israeli officials toward Tehran, and the weak prospects of reaching an agreement between Iran and the United States to contain escalation, any similar future incident could signal the outbreak of war.
Moreover, the more Iranian military maneuvers increase, the fewer reliable indicators remain within Israel, making it increasingly difficult to distinguish between military exercises and an actual attack.
He pointed out that the evident pressure within the Israeli system surrounding these maneuvers, particularly the fear of a war initiated by Iran, despite such a war being among the last things Tehran needs in its current circumstances, highlights the complexity of Israeli assessments after 7 October. If Israel chooses to focus solely on the enemy’s capabilities without taking intentions into account, it may enter an era of continuous conflicts, consistently adopting the harshest option even when it is not the most logical or reasonable.
The author concluded that the Iranian maneuvers indicate that Iran’s strategic system is gradually recovering, even if it has not yet reached full readiness. Above all, they reflect Tehran’s desire to restore its deterrence capacity in the face of Israeli threats to launch another attack. The risk of misinterpreting Iran’s intentions in Israel, which could lead to preemptive steps, increases the danger of escalation resulting from miscalculation between the two sides, particularly the inherent risk of automatically adopting the most dangerous scenario.
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