A new poll conducted by the Middle East Understanding Institute in cooperation with YouGov has revealed striking data about changing views of Israel in an unexpected place: within the Republican Party.
Although some isolated and isolationist Republicans have previously broken with party consensus on Israel, support for pro-Israel policies has long remained dominant among Republican voters. The new poll, however, provides strong indicators that this trend is beginning to change.
This shift is not about the libertarian positions once associated with figures such as Ron Paul, or today with Thomas Massie, nor about political calculations such as Marjorie Taylor Greene’s reversal on this issue and others, stemming from what she views as betrayal by Donald Trump. Rather, it reflects an ideological transformation, particularly among young Republicans.
The poll shows a sharp generational divide among Republican voters, mirroring to some extent a similar gap within the Democratic Party.
Republicans under the age of 45 continue to strongly support Trump, back Republicans in Congress, and largely adhere to conservative and right-wing views on many issues. However, they differ significantly from older Republicans when it comes to Israel.
Young Republicans view Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu less positively, with 31% holding favourable views and 29% unfavourable, compared to older Republicans, among whom 59% are favourable and 19% unfavourable.
Young Republicans are also nearly evenly split on whether the United States should impose sanctions on Israeli officials convicted by international courts of human rights violations, with 30% in favour and 35% opposed. This contrasts with clear opposition among older Republicans, where 21% support sanctions and 57 percent oppose them.
Most importantly in the near term, 51% of young Republicans said they prefer to support candidates who would reduce the amount of aid provided to Israel. 53% believe the annual aid commitment should not be renewed, while 51% oppose the idea of an additional 20-year agreement of the kind Israel is reportedly seeking.
When asked about taxpayer-funded military grants, young Republicans rejected them by a two-to-one margin, while they were almost evenly divided on arms sales to Israel. This suggests a combination of popular opposition to foreign military aid and growing aversion toward Israel.
Negative views of spending American taxpayer money on Israel increased further when such aid was compared to domestic spending.
The Middle East Understanding Institute wrote: “This year, President Trump sent more than 18.5 billion dollars in weapons shipments to Israel, while cutting support for programmes such as Medicaid. These policies are deeply unpopular among Republicans. 65% of Republicans overall and 74% of Republicans under 45 believe that taxpayer-funded weapons sent to Israel should instead be reinvested in reducing healthcare costs.”
All of this indicates that Israel is racing against time.
Support for Israel has already collapsed sharply among Democrats, particularly younger voters, a development that was not entirely surprising to Israel under Netanyahu. He has long aligned more closely with Republicans and, years ago, chose to abandon Democrats in favour of relying on right-wing support. As Israel’s practices have become harsher and more arrogant, concealing Israeli crimes has grown increasingly difficult in the age of technology and social media.
But the Republican support Israel relied upon no longer appears as solid as it once was.
A Losing Bet on the Republican Party
In 2010, former Israeli diplomat and current commentator Alon Pinkas wrote: “Netanyahu’s practices represent a clear break from the past forty years, when Israel’s growing ties with Washington were the product of bipartisan support, regardless of who was in the White House or which party controlled Congress. The special relationship is a cornerstone of Israeli national security and deterrence power. It was built on bipartisan backing and can only endure in that way.”
Pinkas understood what Netanyahu was doing even before it became a widely discussed issue in 2015, when Netanyahu abandoned any pretence of neutrality and openly cooperated with Republicans to undermine Barack Obama’s efforts regarding the Iranian nuclear agreement.
Netanyahu believed Republicans would remain loyal supporters of Israel due to their natural sympathy for a Western-oriented state in the heart of the Arab region, their racism, and their more hardline tendencies. The spread of Christian Zionism within right-wing evangelical churches, largely Republican, was certainly a key factor.
Yet even setting aside those whose support for Israel is rooted in rigid biblical interpretations, Netanyahu appears to have assumed he had more time before a real fracture emerged within the Republican Party. He was therefore willing to alienate most liberal and centrist voters in the Democratic Party, destroying the bipartisan support that Pinkas described as indispensable to Israeli security and diplomacy.
Netanyahu placed a losing bet on the Republicans. His miscalculation likely lay in overestimating the influence of Christian Zionism while underestimating the resurgence of isolationist sentiment within the party.
Most American voters believe the US government should prioritise its own interests even at the expense of its closest allies, though Democrats tend to be more internationally oriented than Republicans.
Here lies Netanyahu’s misunderstanding of the party he feels most aligned with. While wealthy elites have always been the driving force in both parties, the Republican Party Netanyahu knows is one dominated by oligarchs who succeeded in manipulating grassroots bases to secure support.
The “America First” doctrine changed everything. By its nature, it fuels isolationism and stokes hostility toward external commitments among the segment of the Republican Party that relies on government services.
The working class, which constitutes the majority of voters in both parties, is precisely the group that wants funds allocated to Israel redirected inward. Many of these voters live in red states.
Netanyahu paid no attention to these people, just as he disregarded the marginalisation of Democrats and the destruction of bipartisan support.
There is no doubt that Israel’s escalating brutality, up to and including the ongoing genocide, has made Israel far more controversial in the United States. But Netanyahu’s decision to rely solely on Republican backing while alienating Democrats played a major role in opening debate about the US Israel relationship. He may have recognised that this involved some risk, but he likely expected the debate to unfold between Democrats and Republicans, not within the Republican Party itself.
An Opportunity That Must Be Seized
Congress and the White House generally lag far behind voters, yet the gap between elected officials and their constituents is now wider than ever. The wider it grows, the less sustainable it becomes.
This gap has become sufficiently visible to render the American Israel Public Affairs Committee a toxic element in US politics.
A recent poll of Democratic voters in four states expected to see competitive primaries found that nearly half of voters, 48%, agreed with the statement that they “could never support” a congressional candidate funded by AIPAC or the pro-Israel lobby more broadly. More than a quarter of voters, 28%, said they felt strongly that they could not support an AIPAC-backed candidate.
On the Republican side, the Middle East Understanding Institute YouGov poll asked Republican voters whether they preferred a candidate who received funding from AIPAC or one who did not. Only 16% said they preferred an AIPAC-backed candidate, while 39% preferred a candidate who rejected AIPAC support. In this case, the gap between younger and older voters was minimal.
Republicans are generally inclined to dislike lobbies and special interest groups, but these figures are nonetheless highly significant.
The decline in unconditional support for Israel is evident in both parties, and the generational divide suggests it is growing. Republicans are not fundamentally different from Democrats in abstract support for Israel, but both increasingly dislike the current Israeli government or view US policy as misguided, albeit for different reasons.
According to the Middle East Understanding Institute YouGov poll, young Republicans, like young Democrats, show a particular aversion toward Netanyahu compared to older voters in both parties. Netanyahu is therefore a major factor behind much of the negative sentiment toward Israel, making it all the more urgent to capitalise on this growing shift across party lines.
While removing Netanyahu from power remains uncertain, there is a strong possibility that he will not win the next Israeli elections. The most likely alternative at present is former prime minister Naftali Bennett.
Although Bennett’s policies, particularly toward Palestinians, do not differ significantly from Netanyahu’s, he would differ in two key respects.
First, he is unlikely to ally with figures such as Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich or similarly extreme personalities. His partners in anti-Palestinian policies would be more calculating.
Second, he or any future prime minister would be keen to restore Israel’s standing in the United States and, more importantly, revive the bipartisan support that long dominated Washington. Early signs of this strategy are already visible, as Israel’s supporters have repeatedly sought to separate Israel from Netanyahu in an effort to polish Israel’s image in the West in general and in the United States in particular.
If the Middle East Understanding Institute YouGov poll demonstrates anything, it is that the coming generations of both Democrats and Republicans urgently need mobilisation around opposing long-term US commitments to military aid for Israel, whether for ten or twenty years. This is not only a crucial political objective in itself, but also a means to build bipartisan consensus against military aid to Israel. Ultimately, this could open a path toward justice for Palestinians.
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