Israel may appear to many as victorious, a de facto dominant power in the Middle East. It is fighting wars on multiple fronts simultaneously and delivering lethal blows to its enemies. At the same time, it continues to enjoy broad support from political forces and popular bases in the West, particularly among leaders who themselves face serious challenges from the far right in their own countries.
Israel Between the Illusion of Power and the Reality of Internal Collapse
Beneath this surface, Israel is collapsing from within. An international coalition, led by the United States with the participation of Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, is gradually working to remove Gaza from under Israeli control, while also exerting pressure on Israel to retreat from its expansionist adventures in Syria and Lebanon.
The Israeli government publicly declares its opposition to this path. Yet the situation appears to be unfolding with the tacit approval of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has now realised that threatening war serves him more than war itself.
This realisation came after his failure to achieve his declared “war objectives”, namely eliminating Hamas and returning the captives alive.
It is difficult for Western leaders to acknowledge that Israel has become a source of regional chaos. The easier strategy, therefore, is to quietly and gradually withdraw the tools that empower it, and to force it to adapt to the emerging reality without compelling its leaders to submit publicly.
Regional Shifts Undermining the Israeli Role and Reshaping the Balance of Power
The unconditional support Israel once enjoyed from the United States and Europe is steadily declining, as is cooperation with Gulf states. For decades, Palestinians, much like the Muslim Brotherhood, were viewed as a greater threat to regional stability than Israel itself.
Where Western leaders once rushed to condemn Hamas and praise Israel’s “defence of Western values”, those same leaders are now far more silent amid the continuous flow of evidence of Israeli genocide in Gaza. Even US President Donald Trump speaks less about Hamas than he once did.
It remains difficult for Western leaders to admit that Israel has become a destabilising force. Thus, the preferred strategy is to quietly strip it of its leverage over time and allow it to adjust to the new reality without forcing overt compliance. There is no need for direct confrontation. It is enough to meet Israel with occasional coldness, or simply to leave it waiting.
Despite its public claims to the contrary, Israel needs international cooperation to carry out attacks in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran. As a result, its military operations are gradually shrinking. It is no longer engaged in strategic expansion, but rather in pursuing individuals who previously took part in operations against Israelis. These are Israel’s capabilities in the new regional order.
On the diplomatic front, Israel may also be the losing party. Hamas negotiates, while the Israeli government delays. If this continues, Israel will find itself facing a reality it did not shape. Proposals are already being raised, for example, that Israelis should bear the cost of clearing the rubble left behind by their army during more than two years of a genocidal campaign against Gaza.
While Israel edges closer to losing its status as a dominant regional power, Israeli society is expending its primary energy on internal conflicts over the “spirit of Israel” and on deepening its illegal occupation of Palestinian land. Israelis are losing faith in the existence of a world beyond their state’s borders. If such a world exists, they believe it hates Israel intensely regardless of its actions.
Israeli discourse is increasingly centred on issues ranging from “threats against Jews” to what is known as the “Israeli collective”, abandoning the geopolitical debates that were common even six months ago. There is also a widespread disregard for global realities and international public opinion.
Consider, for example, the recent scandal involving the Israeli air force. Prospective pilots, on the verge of graduating after two years of training, underwent an exercise known as “prison simulation”, lasting a full week and considered one of the most demanding stages of training. Afterwards, they were sent to a hotel at a secret location to rest.
Those pilots, however, disclosed the hotel’s location to their families, who visited them over the weekend. Some of the pilots consumed alcohol. Their commanding officer even permitted it.
All of these pilots will face disciplinary measures. Air force commander Tomer Bar stated: “There will be no tolerance regarding values, which form the foundation of the force’s ethics.”
This, precisely, is the collapse. The Israeli air force is responsible for most of the destruction in Gaza, including the bombing of civilian homes and infrastructure, acts that have horrified the world and stripped the Israeli army of its claim to be “the most moral army in the world”. Yet this same force continues to speak of “values” and “ethics”. The pilots are the main arm of the genocidal war, but what matters is that they drank alcohol without permission.
The media portrayed these pilots, and pilots in general, as representing “Israel’s old elites”, morally corrupt, lost, and indulgent, in contrast to the new elites who burned Gaza and died defending the “people of Israel”.
In response, the pilots as a collective rushed to declare their loyalty to the government and the security of the Israeli state, affirming their commitment to continue the genocidal war as long as the “democratically elected” government, which they themselves had protested against repeatedly, orders them to do so.
Perhaps more dangerous, however, is that Israel is losing its internal cohesion. Unvaccinated children are dying from measles and influenza. Gangs of teenagers assault Palestinians working as street cleaners or bus drivers. Palestinian citizens inside Israel are being killed in clashes between criminal gangs. Veterans who took part in the “Gaza war” are committing suicide in unprecedented numbers.
The public mental health system has collapsed under pressure, with appointments scheduled more than a year in advance. School classes are cancelled daily in public schools because teachers are busy caring for their own children, who themselves are left without teachers.
At the Ministry of Education, twenty five senior educational officials have resigned during the current Netanyahu government, most citing political interference in their work. In Tel Aviv, municipal employees have been encouraged to volunteer once a week in kindergartens and childcare centres due to a shortage of qualified staff.
There is also a shortage of judges, because the justice minister does not speak to the chief justice of the Supreme Court, and judicial appointments require the approval of both. Two ministers currently hold nine ministerial portfolios at the same time, after ultra Orthodox Jewish parties left the governing coalition and conditioned their return on abandoning the draft law mandating military service for the ultra Orthodox.
The Israeli state is rapidly moving toward becoming a hollow shell. Its institutions are collapsing, public servants are leaving, and only political loyalists remain to fill the gaps. The Israel now taking shape is condemned to institutional, financial, and cultural poverty, or to total collapse from within.
