As the head of the occupation government, Benjamin Netanyahu, prepares for his summit with former US President Donald Trump, the Syrian file is emerging as one of the key issues expected to be discussed. This comes amid assessments that the on the ground reality in Syria is serving Turkey and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in particular, alongside growing concern within the occupation over Turkish involvement in the Gaza file.
General Yisrael Ziv, the former head of the Operations Directorate in the occupation army, claimed that the Americans do not grasp the depth of the complex situation unfolding under their watch in Syria, especially following the recent incident in which two of their soldiers were killed. He argued that the Syrian army currently being rebuilt consists of remnants of the former army, but primarily of reinforcements from opposition fighters who have volunteered to form part of the new Syrian forces. According to him, these forces have so far failed to establish control over more than half of the country’s territory.
In an article published by Channel 12, Ziv stated that the Israeli assessment of the Syrian situation is that Ankara has a clear agenda and seeks returns on its investment in supporting the revolution. He claimed that Turkey views Syria as part of a greater Turkey project and that it has received Trump’s blessing for this approach. He added that Erdogan is steadily taking control, bringing in military forces, planning to build a large base near Damascus, and encouraging broad economic involvement across Syria, particularly in strategic assets such as oil, minerals, and ports.
Ziv explained that the Israeli reading of Erdogan is that he possesses a regional strategic vision for expanding Turkish influence. According to this assessment, Erdogan seeks to position Turkey as the main player in the Arab Israeli conflict and aims to exert influence over the occupation in the Golan and Gaza. He is said to be heavily investing in strengthening Turkey’s defensive and offensive military capabilities compared to the occupation, while not concealing his desire to confront it. Ziv claimed that Erdogan feels empowered by NATO backing him and Trump supporting him politically, and that his strategy will soon be tested in the issue of deploying Turkish security forces in Gaza.
He further asserted that if Trump were to decide in favour of Turkish troops entering Gaza, this would not only represent a major victory for Erdogan over Israel, but would also signal a clear increase in his power even vis a vis the Americans, at Israel’s expense. Such a move, he argued, would significantly strengthen Erdogan’s regional leadership. From the Israeli perspective, this would amount to a serious political and security failure. He warned that the concern is not limited to losing freedom of military action in Gaza and Syria, but that Turkey would emerge as a leading regional power with an openly hostile line towards Israel, making it more dangerous in his view than Iran. He attributed this to Turkey’s political strength and its ability to drive a wedge between Israel on one side and the United States and Europe on the other.
Ziv also stated that Netanyahu faces another serious problem in his meeting with Trump, namely his failure to adhere to the ceasefire conditions he committed to, which he has effectively turned into unilateral practices. He pointed to Lebanon, where the occupation carries out daily attacks on targets of varying scale, and to Gaza, where the intensity is lower but where the attack on Raed Saad constituted a clear violation of the ceasefire. He noted that the justification provided for this attack failed to convince anyone.
He added that in the specific case of targeting Saad and Al Tabtabaei, Israel had a strong reason to carry out the assassinations due to their importance, even at the risk of US reproach. However, he argued that even if some attacks could be justified, it is unjustifiable that the occupation does nothing to reinforce the political dimension of the agreement. As a central party to the deal, he said, Israel bears responsibility for ensuring its stability.
Ziv concluded that Netanyahu is acting against the stability of the agreements in order to derive political benefit from a renewed narrative portraying Erdogan as the new master, one who learned from the events of 7 October and attacks everything that moves. He claimed that Netanyahu above all does not want to show withdrawals to internationally recognised borders, because withdrawal appears weak.
He ended by stating that this approach clearly contradicts sound security policy, as it deceives the public into believing that from now on it is possible to attack every day indefinitely. He described this as an unrealistic illusion that will backfire on normalisation efforts, harm tourism, the economy, and reserve forces, prove unsustainable in budgetary terms, and further damage Israel’s political standing.
