Against the backdrop of rising tensions across Asia and declining confidence in the existing international order, Japan’s latest military manoeuvres raise a grave question: is the region edging toward a confrontation that could break past traditional boundaries and ignite a major clash with China?
In an effort to address this question, The National Interest published an article by its senior editor for national security affairs, Brandon J. Weichert, warning that Japan’s recent actions may trigger a broad confrontation with China at a moment when the West is witnessing a diminishing capacity to enter new conflicts.
Weichert argues that Japan has created a problem with China under the assumption that the United States would back it. Yet he believes this assumption may be an unwise gamble under President Donald Trump.
He explains that Tokyo deployed a medium range surface to air missile unit on Yonaguni Island near Taiwan, presenting it as a defensive measure within a strategy to reinforce Japan’s southwestern front, especially with China’s intensifying military pressure in the region.
However, Beijing views the move, according to the article, as a direct provocation and part of a broader effort led by the United States and its regional allies to tighten the strategic noose around China at a time when its economy is under strain and its political system may be in flux.
This characterisation heightens the risk of military escalation, particularly in light of China’s belief that any threat to Taiwan constitutes a direct danger to its position in the “first island chain”, a zone it considers vital to its national security. At the same time, Tokyo believes Beijing’s ultimate objective is to use Taiwan as a launching point to further choke Japan and impose full dominance over these islands.
The escalation erupted suddenly two weeks ago when Tokyo objected to Beijing’s warning advising Chinese citizens against travelling to Japan, amid a growing dispute triggered by remarks from Japan’s new prime minister regarding Taiwan.
Beijing interpreted Japan’s deployment of medium range surface to air missiles on Yonaguni Island near Taiwan as a direct provocation and part of US Japanese efforts to encircle China at a moment of potential economic and political vulnerability.
China had already warned Japan the previous Friday of a “humiliating” military defeat if it resorted to force in intervening in Taiwan, and cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan as anger grew in response to the Japanese prime minister’s remarks on Taiwan.
Jiang Bin, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defence, described Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statements regarding a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan as irresponsible and extremely dangerous.
He added in a statement: “If the Japanese side fails to learn the lessons of history and dares to take risks or even use force to intervene in the Taiwan issue, it will face nothing but a crushing defeat at the hands of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army with its iron will, and it will pay a heavy price.”
In his National Interest article, the author stressed that the United States, after a series of strategic failures in the so called “war on terror” and in Ukraine, now appears ready to push its allies toward a new proxy confrontation with China.
The writer warned that the United States will lose any confrontation with China, whether proxy or direct, just as it is losing to Russia in Ukraine.
In his assessment, Japan’s move could ignite a destructive conflict, fuelled by Tokyo’s belief that its allies will rush to support it. Meanwhile in Taiwan, public opinion is sharply divided over these steps, and the same applies in Japan itself.
Ultimately, Taipei recognises clearly that a “provocative” step of this kind from Japan could drive China into a war that would completely devastate Taiwan and inflict severe damage on Japan itself.
The author expressed regret over the West’s abandonment of the art of economic governance in favour of hard power, mirroring the Soviet Union’s earlier trajectory. He warned once again that the United States will lose any confrontation with China, whether indirect or direct, just as it is losing against Russia in Ukraine.
