In recent months, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed optimism that Saudi Arabia might soon join the ranks of Arab states normalising relations with Israel. Yet as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman prepares for his highly anticipated visit to the White House this month, such an outcome appears increasingly unlikely. Riyadh continues to hold firmly to a clear condition: no diplomatic normalisation with Tel Aviv without a credible path to an independent Palestinian state.
According to political analysts, any Saudi-Israeli normalisation would represent a historic transformation in the regional balance of power, reshaping Middle Eastern politics and bolstering U.S. influence across the Arab world. However, multiple reports indicate that the kingdom has quietly communicated to Washington that its position remains unchanged—normalisation must be tied to a roadmap for Palestinian statehood.
Riyadh’s Firm Conditions
Two Gulf sources told Reuters that Saudi officials delivered this message through diplomatic channels, stressing the need to avoid premature statements and ensure alignment between Saudi and U.S. positions ahead of the upcoming meeting in Washington on 18 November.
Former U.S. National Intelligence officer Jonathan Panikoff confirmed this assessment, noting it is “highly unlikely that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will approve any form of formal normalisation without a credible process toward establishing a sovereign Palestinian state.” Now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, Panikoff added that the Saudi leadership might seek to leverage its influence with Trump to obtain a stronger and more explicit American endorsement for Palestinian sovereignty.
This upcoming visit will mark Prince Mohammed’s first trip to Washington since the 2018 assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, whose killing inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul drew worldwide condemnation. The crown prince has consistently denied personal involvement.
Between Normalisation and Regional Strategy
The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco have already joined the Abraham Accords—agreements that established formal ties with Israel in 2020. President Trump recently claimed that “many more nations” were preparing to join these accords and that he hoped Saudi Arabia would be next, though he provided no timeline.
Unlike previous signatories, however, Riyadh insists that any recognition of Israel must occur within a new framework, not as a mere extension of the existing Abraham Accords. Given the kingdom’s immense religious and political weight in the Muslim world, recognition of Israel is not a simple diplomatic step—it is a matter of national and Islamic identity, touching one of the most enduring and sensitive conflicts in the region.
Observers believe such a move is increasingly difficult amid widespread Arab outrage over Israel’s military campaign on Gaza, described by many as a massacre of civilians, despite a tenuous ceasefire currently in place.
The Gaza Factor and the Palestinian Condition
The last major escalation in Gaza erupted after Hamas launched its October 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel. The ensuing Israeli assault devastated the enclave, killing tens of thousands and deepening Arab scepticism toward Israel’s intentions.
Amid this context, Manal Radwan, Saudi Arabia’s envoy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, called for a clear, time-bound Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the deployment of an international protection force, and the return and empowerment of the Palestinian Authority. She stressed that these steps are “essential for establishing a Palestinian state”—the core condition for any genuine regional integration or two-state solution.
Defence Agreements in Focus
Sources told Reuters that while Washington has pressed Riyadh to proceed with normalisation, Saudi officials see no realistic path forward given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s staunch opposition to Palestinian statehood. As a result, discussions have shifted toward defence and investment cooperation, deliberately downplaying the politically explosive normalisation file.
The meeting between Trump and Mohammed bin Salman is expected to yield a limited defence agreement, outlining U.S. military protection for Saudi Arabia and expanding American presence in the Gulf. However, it falls short of the full treaty Riyadh had sought in exchange for normalisation with Israel.
According to Gulf and Western diplomats, the proposed deal resembles Washington’s defence arrangement with Qatar, formalised by executive order in September. It would focus on joint defence cooperation and advanced technology partnerships rather than a binding alliance requiring U.S. Senate ratification.
Saudi Arabia has reportedly pushed for clauses enabling future administrations to upgrade the pact to a full treaty, ensuring its longevity beyond political transitions in Washington.
Complex Negotiations and Regional Dynamics
David Makovsky, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, described the agreement as “a first step toward a broader future pact,” acknowledging that it falls short of Saudi ambitions but keeps channels open for deeper collaboration.
Multiple Gulf and Western officials say that linking defence cooperation, normalisation with Israel, and Palestinian statehood has created a complex diplomatic equation. For now, Riyadh and Washington are opting for a limited defence understanding, which could evolve into a full treaty only if progress is made on the normalisation track.
A Shifting Security Landscape
According to Abdulaziz Al-Sager, head of the Gulf Research Center, the Saudi-U.S. negotiations have been transformed by the events in Gaza. He notes that while the link between normalisation and Palestinian statehood remains intact, Riyadh is now pursuing its national security interests as a separate priority.
Al-Sager explained that “the Saudi position is clear: the degree to which the U.S. addresses the kingdom’s national security concerns will shape its stance on regional issues, including the Palestinian question.”
Regarding Iran, the report stresses that a NATO-style defence pact remains improbable given the political hurdles in Washington and shifting regional realities. Iran—once seen as the main threat justifying such an alliance—has been strategically weakened over the past year by Israeli strikes on its nuclear and military facilities and losses sustained by its allied groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
With the Iranian threat reduced, Saudi Arabia’s urgency to secure a congressional-level treaty has also diminished—particularly in the absence of progress on the Palestinian issue.
Balancing Between Washington and Beijing
Gulf officials added that any new defence framework could come with restrictions on Saudi cooperation with China, particularly in advanced technology and arms production. This could limit Riyadh’s efforts to maintain a strategic balance between independence and security guarantees.
The proposed arrangement will nonetheless expand joint military training, deepen collaboration between U.S. and Saudi defence industries, and place new controls on Riyadh’s military-industrial cooperation with Beijing. It will also expedite the sale of advanced U.S. weapons to Saudi Arabia, overcoming bureaucratic delays that previously stalled major arms deals.
Between Pragmatism and Principle
The Saudi position appears both strategic and moral—asserting its regional role while reaffirming its historic commitment to the Palestinian cause. Despite U.S. pressure, Riyadh has made clear that normalisation without justice for Palestine is unacceptable.
For the kingdom, any recognition of Israel without Palestinian sovereignty would undermine its Islamic legitimacy and Arab leadership—foundations upon which its foreign policy identity has long rested.
Thus, while Washington seeks to frame the discussion in terms of “security alignment” and “regional stability,” Riyadh continues to remind the world that no true stability can be achieved without justice in Palestine.
