In a revealing and alarmist analysis, Israeli researcher and columnist Efraim Inbar has warned of Turkey’s growing regional influence at Iran’s expense, describing the current moment as a “strategic shift” in the regional balance of power.
Writing in The Jerusalem Post, Inbar—head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security—claims that the chaos sparked by the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the subsequent collapse of the Syrian state, weakened Iran’s regional camp and opened the door for Ankara’s military and political expansion.
According to his analysis, Israel’s multi-front war, especially in Gaza and South Lebanon, has eroded the strength of Iran’s regional proxies and compromised Tehran’s strategic position as a regional power.
Inbar goes further, declaring that the Bashar al-Assad regime has effectively collapsed, and that Turkish-backed Islamic forces now dominate Damascus—a development that, he argues, signals a clear Turkish takeover of Syria at Iran’s expense.
A Vacuum in Syria: U.S. Retreat and Turkish Expansion
Inbar links Turkey’s ascendance to the U.S. withdrawal from northern Syria, saying that former U.S. President Donald Trump’s reassurances to Ankara emboldened the Turkish government to act more aggressively.
He asserts that Turkey’s rising confidence stems from its ability to act across conflict zones, underpinned by its neo-Ottoman rhetoric.
He cites President Erdoğan’s 2011 speech, in which Erdoğan referred to a “revival stretching from Sarajevo to Beirut, Damascus, Ramallah, and Jerusalem,” as an ideological blueprint for Turkey’s modern regional ambitions. Inbar interprets this as evidence of a resurging Ottoman vision driven by political, military, and economic tools.
The “Blue Homeland” Doctrine and Regional Maritime Dominance
Inbar draws particular attention to Turkey’s maritime strategy, known as “Mavi Vatan” (Blue Homeland)—a doctrine aimed at expanding Turkish control over the eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea. He views this as part of Turkey’s attempt to assert dominance over energy routes and offshore gas reserves.
This policy, he says, is materializing through naval expansion, arms deals, and direct maritime confrontations, making Turkey a central actor in eastern Mediterranean geopolitics.
Qatar’s Role: Financial Fuel for Turkey’s Rise
Inbar singles out Qatar’s financial support as a critical factor behind Turkey’s regional growth. He claims that Doha’s investments and crisis-time aid have helped Ankara overcome economic pressure and sustain its foreign adventures.
In classic Zionist deflection, Inbar brands Qatar as “one of the largest funders of political Islam in the world,” accusing it of supporting groups such as Hamas and ISIS—a frequent Israeli talking point aimed at discrediting resistance movements and Islamic legitimacy.
He further criticises the West’s silence regarding Qatar’s role, claiming it enables “terror financing” while ignoring so-called threats posed by Sunni Islamic movements.
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Zionist Fear of a Rising Sunni Bloc
Inbar concludes his article with a stark warning:
“Weakening Shiite Iran does not automatically bring regional stability. On the contrary, it may open the door to a more dangerous, radical Sunni alliance.”
This statement betrays a deep Israeli anxiety about a unified Islamic resurgence, particularly a Sunni axis involving Turkey, Qatar, and grassroots Islamic movements that challenge Zionist and Western designs in the region.
He urges Western democracies to recognise this emerging “threat” and take action to counter it, revealing once again that Israeli strategic thinking sees independent Muslim agency as a threat, whether it comes from Iran, Turkey, or anywhere else.
