Israeli analysts largely agree: the memorandum submitted by Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar to Israel’s Supreme Court — containing accusations against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — will deepen Israel’s internal crisis and directly impact the ongoing ceasefire negotiations regarding Gaza.
Netanyahu today faces a genuine moment of reckoning. Despite having previously been granted unconditional political cover to escalate the war under the pretext of recovering Israeli captives and achieving military objectives, he has failed to deliver.
The internal Israeli arena remains turbulent. Public protests persist — from demands to conclude a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas and to end the war, to growing mutiny within military ranks, illustrated starkly when nearly 1,000 Israeli Air Force members published an open letter on April 10th calling for an immediate ceasefire and the return of captives.
Israel is experiencing political tremors of unprecedented scale. Opposition leader Yair Lapid even warned on April 20th that Israel is heading toward internal catastrophe “due to relentless incitement,” holding security officials responsible for failing to manage the brewing crisis.
Netanyahu’s Political Immunity: War as a Shield
Multiple factors have thus far preserved Netanyahu’s government — despite mounting internal and external challenges — especially after the resumption of war in Gaza. Israeli media reports highlight growing internal government pressure on Netanyahu to fully occupy the Gaza Strip, while Israeli Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi warns of the severe military costs such a move would entail.
Analyses suggest that prolonging the war serves Netanyahu’s interests, shielding him from prosecution amid corruption charges. In March, Netanyahu appeared before Tel Aviv’s Central District Court on charges of bribery and abuse of power.
America’s Pragmatism: Why Trump Won’t Let Netanyahu Fall
Trump’s administration views the Middle East — not Ukraine — as the primary arena for strategic leverage. His priorities lie in cultivating pragmatic relations with Russia, leveraging pressure on Iran to extract concessions beneficial to American interests in the region.
Netanyahu’s inflammatory rhetoric against Iran, portraying it as an “existential threat to Israel,” serves American strategic goals — providing Trump with a bargaining chip in negotiations with Tehran.
Meanwhile, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s visit to Riyadh on April 19th, announcing a “pathway” for a civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, further signals Washington’s broader regional recalibration — one that increasingly sidelines Israeli concerns.
Just as Nixon and Kissinger once crafted the “Twin Pillars” policy in the 1970s to ensure regional stability against Soviet expansion, today’s American strategy aims to contain China’s rise — not to fight wars for Netanyahu’s ambitions.
Thus, the recently signed U.S.-Saudi nuclear framework under Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act (1954) reveals Washington’s intent: to build competitive regional alliances through economic integration, avoiding direct military entanglements that Netanyahu desperately seeks.
Netanyahu: A Pawn in a Larger Game
Netanyahu’s devastation of Gaza serves broader American objectives — clearing the way for an India-Middle East economic corridor and constructing a “Middle East Riviera” to attract U.S. investment, particularly in the service and tourism sectors.
Hence, in the short term, Trump has no incentive to abandon Netanyahu. Nor will Washington permit Israel’s internal collapse — not until the regional landscape is fully redrawn in alignment with American designs, and the new contours of the post-Westphalian world order are firmly established.
For now, Israel’s internal fractures are tolerated — even harnessed — to pressure Netanyahu into alignment, while ensuring he remains functional enough to serve U.S. strategic goals in the Middle East.
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