As the days of Ramadan pass swiftly, we now find ourselves approaching the midpoint of the blessed month. Many are beginning to ask: When will Eid al-Fitr be this year? Will the Arab nations unite in celebrating on the same day, or will there be differences in moon sighting once again?
Understanding the Moon Sighting Process
To grasp the astronomical concept behind the sighting of the crescent moon (hilal), we must first understand the moment of conjunction.
The conjunction is the moment when the moon aligns with the sun in the sky. This event always occurs during the daytime, making it invisible to the naked eye, but astronomers can calculate its precise timing.
From our Earthly perspective, the moon—which orbits our planet approximately once every 28 days—seems to pass close to the sun. However, in reality, the sun is much farther away (about 150 million kilometers), whereas the moon orbits the Earth at a distance of around 400,000 kilometers.
Once the conjunction occurs, the moon continues moving away from the sun in the sky. About 12 to 24 hours later, the crescent moon may become visible at night, as it has moved far enough away from the sun’s glare, allowing it to reflect enough light to be seen by the naked eye.
When Will Eid al-Fitr Be This Year?
This year, most Arab countries will conduct the official moon sighting after sunset on Saturday, March 29, 2025 (29th Ramadan 1446).
According to NASA, the moon’s conjunction will occur at exactly 1:58 PM Doha time on March 29. Since this moment is fixed globally, it provides a baseline for when the crescent moon could potentially be visible.
However, this leaves very little time for the crescent to appear above the western horizon after sunset, making its visibility extremely difficult.
The reason for this difficulty is the crescent’s low brightness and its close proximity to the horizon at the time of sunset.
Scientific Evidence Against a Visible Crescent on March 29
Mathematical models developed by Robert H. van Gent, a professor of mathematics at Utrecht University, suggest that moon sighting on March 29 will be impossible in the Arab world.
This is because the distance between the moon and the sun will be too small, falling below the Danjon Limit, which defines the minimum angle at which the human eye can detect the crescent moon.
A Potential Difference in Eid Dates?
Despite these challenges, modern astronomical tools have advanced significantly.
Today, it is possible to detect the crescent using high-powered telescopes equipped with daylight imaging technology. Additionally, precise astronomical calculations confirm the presence of the moon in the sky between conjunction and sunset.
Scenario 1: Eid on Monday, March 31 (Most Likely for Most Arab Countries)
For countries that began fasting on March 1—which includes most Arab nations—it is likely that:
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- The crescent will not be visible using traditional methods
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- These countries may declare Sunday, March 30, as the 30th day of Ramadan
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- Consequently, Eid al-Fitr would fall on Monday, March 31
However, this scenario is not definitive, as some countries may use alternative moon sighting criteria, which could lead to a different determination of Eid.
Scenario 2: Eid on Sunday, March 30 (Possible in Some Regions)
Some countries may choose to rely on different sighting methods and declare Eid earlier.
This is especially relevant for countries like Morocco, which began fasting later, on March 2.
The Importance of Moon Sighting in Islamic Tradition
Ultimately, all these calculations and predictions serve only as guides, not absolute determinations.
As is well established in Islamic jurisprudence, the beginning and end of Ramadan must be confirmed through actual moon sighting.
This principle is firmly rooted in the Prophetic Sunnah, as emphasized in the authentic hadith:
📖 “Fast when you see the crescent, and break your fast when you see it.”
Thus, while scientific estimates provide valuable insights, the actual sighting of the moon remains the primary method for confirming the start of Shawwal and determining the day of Eid al-Fitr.
