Despite the occupation’s claims of securing significant military gains—allegedly restoring its deterrence and striking neighboring forces and countries—political and social costs have proven steep. Internationally, Israel’s image has suffered, domestic divisions have deepened, and potential opportunities for meaningful regional change appear squandered.
Strategic Gains, Internal Fractures
Ili Foda, a Middle East scholar at the Hebrew University and a board member of the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies (Mitvim), writes that by the end of 2024:
“Israel improved its strategic standing in the Middle East but at the expense of intensifying internal divisions and damaging its relations with the rest of the world.”
In an op-ed for Channel 12 (translated by Arabi21), Foda explains that more than a year after Hamas’s surprise attack on October 7, Israel regained its deterrent power by targeting the Resistance Axis: Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—weakening their leadership structures. Yet this supposed strategic improvement has come at the price of eroding Israel’s international reputation as a state that upholds peace and individual rights.
Failure to Secure Captives
Foda underlines that Israel has so far failed to free Israelis captured in Gaza, even though its military success should have been a major bargaining chip. Instead, Netanyahu’s government persists with the war, apparently for political—not operational—reasons. Foda calls this a moral failure that betrays core humanitarian values, exemplified by “humiliating” treatment of families whose loved ones are still missing, continuing efforts to push a judicial overhaul, and stalling on the draft exemption debate for ultra-Orthodox communities—factors that have accelerated societal fragmentation.
Global Criticism and War Crimes Allegations
Meanwhile, international denunciation of Israel’s policies toward Palestinians has surged—accusing it of war crimes in Gaza. Foda posits that an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant on such charges may be just “the tip of the iceberg,” further undermining Israel’s global standing.
Drawing on the famous observation by military theorist Carl von Clausewitz—that war is politics by other means—Foda points out one of the occupation’s greatest failures is not converting its battlefield gains into political achievements. The result: a missed historical opportunity for regional transformation.
Political Stalemate on the Palestinian Front
The Palestinian arena remains far from any political resolution. Although numerous “post-war” proposals exist, Netanyahu’s government refuses to address them. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have instead been instructed to maintain a blockade on northern Gaza, while far-right elements in the government discuss the possibility of reestablishing settlements—a move that only heightens tensions.
The ongoing political gridlock in dealing with Palestinians, Foda argues, is a “recipe for Israeli failure.” The main political prize that has yet to materialize is a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia. Whether or not that is feasible depends on what Riyadh ultimately demands in return—likely concessions on the Palestinian issue. Any Israeli government seeking normalization will eventually have to “pay in Palestinian currency,” even if the precise cost remains unclear.
Hamas: Drawing Attention to the Palestinian Cause
Foda notes that Hamas likely did not anticipate its October 7 attack to reshape the Middle East so drastically. Even as the group faces military setbacks, it has effectively thrust the Palestinian issue back into the global and regional spotlight, despite the massive toll on Gaza’s civilian population. In contrast, the Israeli leadership—despite its proclaimed military victories—has yet to secure any meaningful political progress, leaving the specter of another tragedy looming after the October 7 crisis.
