Israeli Concerns Over Erdoğan’s Role on the Border Following Assad’s Fall

The Israeli newspaper Maariv has raised alarm over recent developments in Syria, where the Syrian opposition successfully toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime. These changes have thrust Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan into a position of unexpected influence, despite Turkey’s prior support for certain factions. The article highlights growing Israeli concerns about Erdoğan’s potential role along the Syrian-Israeli border in the post-Assad era.

Turkey’s Intensified Stance Toward Israel

Maariv pointed out that these developments come at a time when Turkey has been hardening its stance against the Israeli occupation. Since October 7, Erdoğan’s policies have gone beyond the usual rhetoric seen in past tensions with Israel. Notably, Turkey decided to sever trade relations with Israel and issued a joint condemnation with Qatar regarding the Israeli military’s incursions into Syria, accusing Israel of exploiting the chaos to expand its occupation and violate Syrian sovereignty.

Erdoğan’s Threats Against Israel

Turkey’s Role in Syria’s Transformation

According to Maariv, Turkey has played a significant role in Syria’s recent events, though it remains unclear whether the initiative originated directly from Ankara. Turkey has been involved in training and arming certain opposition groups, but there is no confirmation that the main faction leading the offensive, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, is acting under direct Turkish orders. Moreover, it is unlikely that Erdoğan anticipated such swift victories by the opposition.

The paper argued that Erdoğan stands to gain significant strategic advantages from the collapse of Assad’s regime, which was backed by Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah. Chief among Turkey’s interests in Syria are:

• • Undermining Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria.

• • Facilitating the return of millions of Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey.

Risks Facing Turkey

Despite the potential gains, Maariv emphasized the complex challenges Turkey faces in post-Assad Syria. The fragmented nature of armed groups in Syria means they are far from united, which could delay or even prevent the establishment of a Turkish-friendly government.

Additionally, Erdoğan faces the risk of internal instability if the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) retaliates against Turkey’s actions in Syria. Escalating conflicts could spill over into Turkish territory, further complicating Erdoğan’s domestic position.

Israeli Concerns Over Erdoğan’s Border Influence

From Israel’s perspective, Turkey’s growing role in Syria poses significant risks. Maariv suggested that Erdoğan might leverage his increasing influence to support what it termed “jihadist groups” near Israel’s borders. This possibility heightens the likelihood of Erdoğan’s threats against Israel becoming a reality. However, such actions could place Turkey in direct confrontation with the United States and NATO, especially under the current U.S. administration, which is unlikely to tolerate a major escalation.

Israeli Preparations for the Post-Assad Era

In light of the recent developments, Israel has mobilized tanks and infantry along its border with Syria for the first time in 50 years. Maariv noted that Israel has also intensified airstrikes on targets in Syria to weaken Iranian and Hezbollah forces. These efforts aim to:

• • Prevent the establishment of Turkish-aligned Islamic forces in Syria.

• • Counter threats from Iran and its allies to neighboring Jordan, which is already grappling with Iranian attempts to destabilize its government and use its territory to attack Israel.

Erdoğan’s Strategic Dilemma

The article concluded by highlighting the strategic dilemma Erdoğan faces. While his involvement in Syria could bring short-term gains, it also carries significant risks that could undermine his international standing and exacerbate domestic challenges in Turkey.

Israel’s Long-Term Strategy

Meanwhile, Maariv emphasized the need for Israel to capitalize on its current military momentum. The paper urged the Israeli government to:

• • Continue neutralizing regional threats.

• • Strengthen international alliances to ensure long-term security and stability.

Conclusion

The fall of Assad’s regime has reshaped the geopolitical landscape in Syria, with Erdoğan emerging as a key player. However, both Turkey and Israel face high stakes and risks as they navigate this volatile new reality. For Erdoğan, the challenge lies in balancing his ambitions in Syria with domestic and international pressures, while Israel must address the dual threat of Iranian expansion and Turkey’s growing influence near its borders.