In recent days, following Donald Trump’s election victory, Israelis are closely observing what they view as a likely return to a Trump-led White House. However, for now, the United States has one sitting president—Joe Biden. With no more election constraints, Biden is positioned to apply unprecedented pressure on Israel to end the ongoing war, secure the release of captives, and advance normalization efforts with Saudi Arabia.
Professor Eytan Gilboa, a United States expert from Bar-Ilan University, commented, “Regarding Israel, a second Trump administration is expected to support Israeli policies on war issues, the Palestinian question, and regional peace. However, expecting a repeat of Trump’s first term, when Netanyahu served as prime minister, may be unrealistic.” Gilboa identifies several reasons for this skepticism, with one key point being that American presidents often approach their second terms differently, especially when, like Trump, they have spent time out of office. Trump has positioned himself as a peacemaker, with his policies on Israel anticipated to echo Biden’s in some areas, particularly in aiming to end the war by January 2025, when he assumes office.
Additionally, Trump has expressed interest in reaching a deal with Iran, an objective that directly conflicts with Israel’s approach, which advocates for a strong military deterrence as the preferred response to Iran’s nuclear threat.
Trump is also expected to push for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to expand normalization agreements with Israel. This move, however, hinges on Israel’s willingness to provide at least a political horizon for the Palestinians, as Saudi Arabia has made this a condition for normalization. Trump is likely to revisit his “Deal of the Century,” which outlined a framework for Israeli-Palestinian peace based on establishing a Palestinian state on 70% of the West Bank and 100% of Gaza.
This point may become a major source of contention between a future Trump administration and Netanyahu’s government. Notably, some American and Israeli sources suggest that Trump blamed Netanyahu for derailing his peace plan during his previous term.
Until Trump potentially re-enters the White House in January 2025, the United States will continue under Biden’s leadership. Unrestrained by election pressures, Biden is expected to urge Israel to conclude the war, secure the release of captives, and take steps that support normalization with Saudi Arabia, reinforcing a U.S.-aligned regional coalition against Iran.
