Following a sharp escalation in rhetoric from Donald Trump, including threats targeting Iran, a Pakistan-led initiative backed by Washington suddenly emerged. Pakistan’s Prime Minister announced via the platform X that both the United States and Iran had agreed to a 15-day ceasefire to open the door for negotiations. Notably, the announcement explicitly stated that the ceasefire would extend to all allied fronts, including Lebanon.
However, this trajectory quickly became more complex. Trump subsequently stepped back from formally including Lebanon within any regional ceasefire framework, amid Israeli political pressure aimed at isolating the Lebanese track from the broader regional context and subjecting it to separate conditions.
This reversal, coupled with efforts by Benjamin Netanyahu to obstruct de-escalation, was reflected on the ground through intensified Israeli military operations in Lebanon. These included widespread attacks described as war crimes and crimes against humanity, with Netanyahu publicly boasting of 160 airstrikes within a ten-minute window.
A Shift Towards Direct Negotiation
While Iran continued to push for Lebanon’s inclusion in a unified ceasefire and regional settlement framework, Lebanese officials asserted that only the Lebanese state has the authority to negotiate on its behalf. At the same time, Israel unexpectedly signalled openness to direct negotiations with Lebanon after a prolonged period of refusal.
This shift raises serious concerns regarding both its timing and underlying objectives. The central question is whether this signals a genuine diplomatic pathway, as some Lebanese officials suggest, or the construction of a new political and military trap that could expose Lebanon to existential risks.
Strategic Risks Behind the Israeli Proposal
1. Fragmenting Lebanon from the Regional Front
One of the most critical risks lies in detaching Lebanon from the broader regional conflict framework. From a strategic standpoint, Lebanon benefits from remaining aligned within a unified axis that includes Iran, Iraq, and Yemen.
The United States is seeking to end the regional war with Iran and secure the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, particularly after sustaining significant material and military losses and facing growing domestic pressure on the Trump administration. In this context, Israel aims to pull Lebanon into a separate negotiation track, allowing Washington to later argue that Lebanon falls outside the main negotiation framework in Pakistan.
Such a scenario would strip Lebanon of a key leverage point that comes from being part of a wider regional front.
2. Negotiating Under Fire: Replicating the Gaza Model
Israel has explicitly stated that any negotiations with Lebanon would take place under ongoing military pressure. This approach is designed to weaken Lebanon and its government, forcing concessions under bombardment and siege conditions.
Entering negotiations without securing a ceasefire would place Lebanon in a structurally imbalanced process, where terms are dictated by force rather than diplomacy. In such a scenario, military escalation, including attacks on civilians, could be systematically used ahead of each negotiation round as a direct pressure tool.
The likely outcome would be a negotiation table shaped by coercion rather than mutual agreement.
There is also a strong possibility that Israel could impose a comprehensive blockade across land, sea, and air, forcing Lebanon into a position where it is compelled to sign what effectively amounts to a surrender agreement. This would mirror the model applied in Gaza.
3. Internal Destabilisation as an Alternative to Military Failure
Having failed to achieve key objectives on the battlefield, particularly disarming Hezbollah, Israel is expected to shift these demands to the political arena.
Field reports and Israeli military leaks indicate that ground operations have not progressed as anticipated, with repeated ambushes and operational setbacks attributed to Hezbollah’s capabilities.
According to previous statements cited by Israeli media, the goal of disarming Hezbollah is considered unrealistic. Instead, proposals have emerged for establishing a buffer zone inside southern Lebanon, extending 2 to 3 kilometres deep and entirely depopulated, to secure northern Israeli settlements. Crucially, this would be implemented through a formal agreement with Lebanon.
What Israel Seeks at the Negotiation Table
Based on Israeli positions, the expected demands in any negotiation framework include:
- Disarmament of Hezbollah, effectively pushing Lebanon towards internal conflict
- Normalisation of relations with Israel
- Establishment of a depopulated buffer zone along the border
- Security guarantees for Israeli settlements without any binding commitment to withdraw from occupied territory
This framework reflects a model previously applied in negotiations with Syria, where commitments were asymmetrical and lacked enforceable guarantees.
Conclusion
The proposed negotiation track presents significant strategic risks for Lebanon. Rather than offering a pathway to stability, it may serve as a mechanism to impose political, military, and territorial concessions under pressure, while stripping Lebanon of its regional leverage and internal cohesion.
