Uncertainty continues to surround key aspects of the anticipated negotiations between Washington and Tehran, scheduled to take place in Pakistan on Saturday. The agenda remains unresolved between the two sides, which recently concluded a 40 day war. Tensions persist in the Strait of Hormuz, through which one fifth of global oil supply passes, while ceasefire violations continue across multiple fronts, with both sides exchanging accusations over breaches of the two week truce.
Despite this ambiguity, analysts and observers suggest that the outcome of the talks is likely to fall into three main scenarios. The first involves reaching preliminary understandings that pave the way for a final agreement. The second centres on prolongation without meaningful progress due to deep divisions. The third scenario involves a breakdown of negotiations and a return to war.
Who Will Represent Both Sides?
United States
White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt confirmed that President Donald Trump will send a delegation led by Vice President JD Vance, signalling the high political weight of the US representation.
The delegation is also expected to include envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, alongside US Central Command chief Brad Cooper, according to reporting from the White House.
Iran
Tehran has not officially disclosed its delegation. However, Bloomberg reported that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are expected to lead Iran’s negotiating team.
What Will Iran Demand?
It remains unclear whether Iran’s 10 point proposal is the same framework referenced by President Trump as a potential basis for negotiations. However, according to the most authoritative sources, Tehran’s demands include:
- A US commitment to non aggression
- Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz
- Acceptance of uranium enrichment
- Lifting all primary sanctions
- Lifting all secondary sanctions
- Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions
- Ending all decisions by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors
- Financial compensation to Iran
- Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
- A full cessation of war across all fronts, including Lebanon
What Will the United States Demand?
There is no official US list comparable to Iran’s proposal. However, The Washington Post reported that the US delegation intends to push for the release of American detainees held in Iran as part of a broader agreement to end the war.
Scenario One: De escalation and Agreement
This scenario is supported by a shared interest in exiting the state of war. Negotiations could produce preliminary understandings that lead to a comprehensive settlement.
Several indicators support this possibility. Both sides have framed the ceasefire as a form of victory, suggesting a willingness to avoid renewed conflict. President Trump described the halt in fighting as a major moment for global peace and claimed that the United States had achieved and exceeded its military objectives.
Subsequent statements reinforced this tone. Trump stated in an interview that a successful agreement is likely, expressing optimism about future outcomes. Vice President JD Vance also conveyed confidence ahead of his departure for Islamabad, stating that the talks could be positive if Iran engages in good faith, while warning against attempts to manipulate the process.
As a potential contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, Vance has adopted a cautious stance on prolonged US military involvement in the Middle East.
Scenario Two: Stalemate Without Breakthrough
Observers consider this scenario highly plausible due to conflicting demands between the two sides.
A major obstacle is the lack of trust. Analysts argue that mutual distrust remains the most significant barrier to reaching a settlement. Sahar Khan, an analyst at the Institute of Global Affairs, stated that both sides are attempting to present themselves as victorious by advancing maximalist demands. However, she noted that sustaining the ceasefire and holding talks would still represent a significant step forward.
Another challenge is the wide negotiation gap between US and Israeli positions on one side and Iran’s demands on the other.
Former Pakistani ambassador to China Masood Khalid described the atmosphere as already strained before talks begin. He argued that Israel is deliberately complicating the process through continued escalation in Lebanon, adding that negotiations are likely to be complex, prolonged, and potentially extend beyond the 15 day timeframe.
The absence of an international guarantor further complicates matters. Khalid noted that no single country is willing to guarantee commitments on behalf of the United States or Israel, and that China is unlikely to assume such a risk. Any agreement would likely require backing from major regional states, permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, and a binding resolution.
Scenario Three: Breakdown and Return to War
This scenario is driven by ongoing tensions on the ground and continued mutual threats following the ceasefire.
Lebanon Front
Despite Israel’s announcement of potential negotiations with Lebanon, military operations have continued. Israeli strikes have resulted in 303 deaths and 1150 injuries within the first two days of the truce, according to preliminary health ministry figures.
While Islamabad and Tehran maintain that the ceasefire includes Lebanon, both Washington and Tel Aviv have rejected this interpretation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later announced negotiations focused on disarming Hezbollah, reportedly under US pressure.
Iran has threatened to withdraw from talks if Lebanon remains excluded. Iranian Ambassador to Islamabad Amiri Moghaddam indicated in a now deleted post that continued Israeli strikes are seen as attempts to undermine negotiations.
Trita Parsi, vice president of the Quincy Institute, stated that it would be extremely difficult for Iran to accept a ceasefire that leaves Lebanon exposed to ongoing attacks.
Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively disrupted ahead of negotiations. US media reported minimal traffic through the passage, with Reuters noting that only one oil tanker and five dry cargo vessels crossed within the first 24 hours of the ceasefire, compared to around 140 vessels daily before the war.
CBS reported similarly low traffic levels, with only about 12 ships passing through during the first two days of the truce.
In parallel, Lloyd’s List reported that Iran has imposed a one million dollar fee on oil tankers transiting the Strait.
Middle East Institute expert Alex Vatanka warned that Iran’s actions in Hormuz could threaten the viability of peace talks in the coming weeks. He suggested that Tehran is betting on Trump to pressure Israel to scale back operations in Lebanon and include it within the ceasefire framework.
However, this approach carries risks for Trump, who may be unwilling or unable to take such steps.
Complex Files and Uncertain Outcomes
Beyond these flashpoints, several contentious issues remain unresolved, including negotiation mechanisms, the future of Iran’s nuclear programme, demands for sanctions relief, and the withdrawal of US forces from the region.
Given the scale of these disputes, some analysts do not rule out a failure to reach common ground and a return to military escalation.
Vatanka described several of Iran’s demands, particularly those related to US military withdrawal and financial compensation, as unrealistic.
