The United Arab Emirates is pursuing a recalibration of its regional position through deeper integration within its alliance with Israel, placing itself on an increasingly confrontational trajectory with its Arab and Islamic surroundings. This shift reflects a high risk strategic bet that challenges traditional regional balances.
Abu Dhabi’s emerging approach centres on leveraging its partnership with Israel to redistribute power dynamics within the Gulf and beyond. At its core lies an effort to move beyond what it perceives as Saudi Arabia’s dominant “big brother” role, positioning itself as an independent power centre within the regional order.
Dual Track Strategy: Security Integration and Field Expansion
The UAE’s strategy operates across two parallel tracks. The first involves deepening security, military, and intelligence cooperation with Israel. The second focuses on expanding on ground influence through local proxies and non state actors in strategically significant regions.
This combined approach aims to establish the UAE as a regional actor whose influence exceeds its geographical and demographic limitations, embedding it within a broader operational network that spans multiple conflict zones.
Expanding Influence Across Strategic Corridors
Abu Dhabi is actively engaged across several fronts. In Yemen, it supports the Southern Transitional Council to consolidate influence over the south and key maritime ports. In the Horn of Africa, it has invested in Somaliland to secure a foothold near the Bab al Mandeb strait. In Sudan, it maintains links with the Rapid Support Forces within the context of an ongoing power struggle.
These parallel engagements form part of a wider vision to construct a continuous belt of influence stretching from the Red Sea to the Gulf.
Central to this vision is control or influence over critical maritime chokepoints. The Bab al Mandeb is viewed as a gateway to the Red Sea and a vital artery for global trade, while the Strait of Hormuz represents a strategic lever over global energy flows.
Observers argue that influence over both corridors could provide the UAE with unprecedented geopolitical leverage, enabling it to reshape regional power structures.
Positioning Within Global Maritime Security Frameworks
The UAE is also seeking a role within international coalitions tasked with safeguarding maritime navigation, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. This reflects a broader ambition to transition from a secondary player into a central pillar of regional security arrangements, especially in scenarios involving shifting dynamics with Iran.
At the heart of this repositioning is its relationship with Israel, which is presented not merely as political normalisation but as a comprehensive security and economic integration. This partnership is viewed by Abu Dhabi as a gateway to advanced military technology, intelligence capabilities, and influence within Western decision making circles.
Rising Political Costs and Regional Backlash
However, this trajectory carries increasing political costs. The UAE’s alignment with Israel has contributed to an erosion of its standing within the Arab and Islamic worlds, particularly amid the ongoing Palestinian struggle and growing public and official opposition to normalisation.
Since Mohammed bin Zayed assumed leadership, Abu Dhabi is no longer widely perceived as a neutral or balanced actor. Instead, it is increasingly viewed as aligned with a controversial regional axis, a perception reinforced by its expanding involvement in regional conflicts through proxy forces.
Criticism of the UAE has intensified over allegations of supporting armed militias, placing it in direct tension with popular aspirations across the region and undermining its official narrative centred on stability and development.
Strategic Ambition Meets Structural Risk
Relations with several Arab and Islamic states have been affected by this approach, driven by divergences over Israel and competing interests across multiple conflict arenas. Unspoken tensions are growing with regional powers that interpret Emirati actions as attempts to impose influence beyond its natural scope, potentially fuelling instability rather than containing it.
The UAE’s strategy reflects a clear ambition to reengineer its regional position. However, it also signals an increasing willingness to engage in political and military risk taking.
Abu Dhabi now faces a complex strategic equation: securing rapid gains in influence through its alignment with Israel while absorbing a gradual erosion of its Arab and Islamic depth. As it redraws its regional role, it does so on unstable ground that may ultimately transform from a strategic advantage into a long term liability.
