Amid the daily tactical noise surrounding the war on Iran, the central strategic question remains focused on its trajectory and long-term direction.
Iran has absorbed the initial shock and disrupted expectations of a rapid resolution promoted by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. The system has not collapsed, Tehran has not surrendered, and the broader political structure has not submitted to new American negotiation terms. Public mobilisation did not materialise at scale, and separatist movements failed to gain traction.
Now in its sixth week, the war stands at a crossroads, shaped by competing pressures including American threats, limited diplomatic engagement, and mutual conditions imposed by both sides.
Strategic Outlook and Possible Scenarios
Over the long term, a political resolution through negotiation remains the most plausible outcome. Iran recognises it cannot militarily defeat the United States and Israel outright, while both Washington and Tel Aviv are unlikely to secure a decisive and comprehensive military victory.
However, the immediate question is not the final outcome, but the likely pathways under current conditions.
Three primary scenarios emerge. Trump could unilaterally declare an end to the war. The conflict could be resolved through negotiations. Or the war could continue, intensify, and potentially expand.
While factors such as domestic pressure, economic consequences, particularly linked to the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington’s limited success in forming a broader coalition could push toward a unilateral declaration of victory, none of these pressures appear decisive enough. This makes a unilateral end to the war unlikely, especially given the unwillingness of the United States to expose Israel to a potential military and security crisis.
Negotiations also lack a viable foundation. There is no established trust between Tehran and Washington, nor any clear indication of a breakthrough. Efforts by countries such as Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt have been limited to message relaying, with early attempts appearing to have reached a dead end.
Five Drivers of Escalation
War Objectives Remain Unmet
The United States has outlined several objectives, including dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes and reshaping its regional policies, particularly regarding its alliances. Regime change remains both an implicit and explicit objective, especially for Israel.
None of these objectives have been achieved. As a result, halting the war under current conditions is strategically and militarily unlikely for the attacking parties.
Absence of a Credible Victory Narrative
Neither Trump nor Netanyahu currently holds a convincing narrative of victory that can be presented domestically. This is particularly critical given upcoming elections in both the United States and Israel, which could reshape their political landscapes and determine the future of their leadership.
Expansion Across Multiple Fronts
The involvement of Hezbollah as a major actor, alongside more limited participation from Ansar Allah and Iraqi groups, has significantly complicated the conflict. This multi-front dynamic makes reaching any agreement more difficult, especially as the Lebanese front shows no indication of stabilising or moving toward a ceasefire or withdrawal.
Iran has also signalled that developments in Lebanon are now tied to its broader negotiating position.
Iran’s Strategic Position
Iran appears to have regained momentum following the initial shock, reasserting control both politically and militarily. Continued confrontation is viewed as a means to exhaust its adversaries while strengthening its negotiating leverage, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz and its global economic implications.
The Israeli Factor
Despite broad alignment between the United States and Israel on the objectives of the war, differences remain regarding how and when it should end.
There is growing concern within Israeli circles about the possibility of Trump making a unilateral decision that sidelines Netanyahu. In response, Israel is actively working to sustain the war, limit diplomatic manoeuvring, and reduce the likelihood of a negotiated outcome.
Conclusion
Regardless of Trump’s stated deadlines or threats, the war on Iran is not expected to end in the near term, neither through negotiation nor unilateral decision.
Current indicators point toward continued escalation, with a strong possibility of further expansion involving additional actors.
