Political and security sources have revealed details of a secret call between Yossi Cohen, the former head of Israel’s Mossad and a key figure in Israeli communication channels with Gulf states, and Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
According to sources cited by Emirates Leaks, the conversation focused on the scenario of a sudden United States withdrawal from the war with Iran and its potential impact on the regional balance of power.
Israeli Concerns Over a Sudden US Exit
Sources indicated that Cohen conveyed growing concern within Israeli decision making circles over the possibility that Washington could abruptly disengage from the war. This scenario is viewed in Tel Aviv as highly dangerous, particularly as the conflict continues and its military and economic costs escalate.
Israeli political assessments suggest that internal pressures within the United States, both economic and political, could push the administration to seek a rapid exit strategy. This is especially relevant given the rising cost of the war and the absence of a decisive outcome.
These concerns come as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains a hardline stance, rejecting any settlement that does not include what he describes as the complete defeat of the Iranian system. However, political circles in Washington increasingly view such an objective as difficult to achieve under current war dynamics.
Expanding Complexity and International Factors
Western assessments indicate that the indirect political and military involvement of major powers such as Russia and China has further complicated the conflict. Their engagement has made the initial war objectives declared by Tel Aviv and Washington significantly harder to realise.
Despite these complications, pro-Israel lobbying influence in Washington has so far succeeded in keeping the United States engaged in the confrontation. It has also played a role in encouraging Western allies to share the military and political burden.
In this context, the United Kingdom has emerged as one of the most prominent partners pushed to the forefront, either through direct military participation or broader support for the Western coalition in the region.
Persistent Fear of Strategic Abandonment
Israeli concerns remain unresolved, as decision makers in Tel Aviv believe that current Western support may not be sustainable if political calculations shift within the United States.
The most alarming scenario within Israeli security institutions is a sudden American withdrawal, leaving Israel to face Iran directly without United States military and political backing.
Some Israeli circles recall previous experiences where they perceived that Washington left Israel to manage regional threats alone. Among these examples are the attacks carried out by Ansar Allah in the Red Sea, which Israel had to address without direct United States intervention.
Failed Regional Escalation Strategy
Parallel to these concerns, recent developments have revealed the faltering of a broader strategy that the United States, Israel, and some regional allies had been relying on since the beginning of the escalation.
According to political assessments, the plan aimed to gradually push the region into a wider confrontation with Iran, eventually transforming the war into a broader regional conflict in which Gulf states would carry a significant share of the military and economic burden.
However, this strategy has not materialised. Several Gulf capitals have approached the escalation with caution and have avoided direct involvement, despite facing threats and attacks linked to the conflict.
This restraint has altered the framework of the war that Washington and Tel Aviv initially sought to establish.
A Shift in the War Equation
According to perspectives circulating in regional decision-making circles, the original arrangement envisioned that the United States and Israel would launch the initial strike against Iran, followed by a broader regional war involving Gulf states.
Such a scenario would have transferred a substantial portion of the war’s burden to regional actors, both in terms of military engagement and the economic consequences tied to disruptions in energy markets and maritime routes.
However, the reluctance of most Gulf states to engage directly has limited the feasibility of this plan and kept the confrontation within a more complex and constrained framework than originally anticipated.
Strategic Implications and Ongoing Calculations
Amid these developments, Israeli concerns over a potential shift in United States policy have become a central factor shaping Tel Aviv’s diplomatic activity. Israeli leadership is actively working to secure continued American and Western support for the war effort.
Observers believe that any sudden United States withdrawal would fundamentally reshape the regional balance of power and place Israel in an unprecedented security position, facing Iran without the cover of direct American support.
