At this stage, there is no clear indication of how far the ongoing war led by the United States and Israel against Iran may expand. Following significant setbacks and unexpected losses sustained by the coalition, attention has increasingly shifted from direct military confrontation to targeting critical infrastructure, including industrial zones, scientific centres, and civilian facilities.
Amid this escalation, threats have extended to energy facilities, oil infrastructure, and potentially vital civilian systems. While some observers suggest the war may be nearing an end, available indicators point to a continued push by Washington and Tel Aviv to secure a decisive outcome. Without such an outcome, both risk being perceived as having failed strategically, a scenario that could trigger broader geopolitical shifts across the region.
Escalation Towards Civilian Infrastructure
If the conflict extends over a longer period, strategic assessments suggest that the United States and Israel may expand their target list to include assets that directly impact civilian life. Such actions are seen as an attempt to apply internal pressure on Iran’s population, although similar approaches have historically failed to fracture domestic unity.
One of the most sensitive potential targets is Iran’s water desalination infrastructure. These facilities are geographically dispersed and rely on diverse sources, which could limit the impact of any single strike. However, the larger strategic concern lies in the likely response.
Iran’s military doctrine emphasises proportional retaliation. Any attack on its water infrastructure would likely trigger reciprocal strikes on Israeli desalination facilities, which are concentrated within a limited geographic area, primarily along the Mediterranean coast. These facilities are considered more exposed compared to heavily fortified military and industrial targets previously struck.
Water Infrastructure in Occupied Palestine
Water resources in occupied Palestine vary significantly depending on geography and climate. Rainfall remains the primary source, feeding underground aquifers and supporting agricultural activity. Seasonal rainfall, typically between September and March, contributes an estimated six billion cubic metres annually.
Additional sources include more than 1,500 natural springs, the majority located in the northern and central regions. Surface water flows and groundwater basins, including areas such as the Sea of Galilee basin and the coastal aquifer, also contribute to the overall supply.
However, due to instability in natural water availability and the ongoing appropriation of Palestinian water resources, Israeli authorities have increasingly relied on desalination as a core solution to meet growing agricultural, industrial, and domestic demand.
Evolution of Desalination Projects
Israel began developing desalination capabilities in the early 1980s. The first plant, established in 1981 near the Eshkol power station, utilised multi stage distillation and produced approximately 20,000 cubic metres of water per day.
By 1997, reverse osmosis technology was introduced in the southern city of Eilat, initially serving local demand. Towards the end of the 1990s, increasing water scarcity led to broader strategic planning for large scale desalination plants along the Mediterranean coast.
In December 1999, a government-led economic committee approved plans to establish multiple desalination facilities, alongside additional infrastructure projects designed to expand capacity.
By the early 2000s, major facilities began operating, including plants in Ashkelon, Palmachim, Hadera, Ashdod, and Sorek. These projects formed the backbone of a national desalination network supported by a centralised water distribution system developed by the national company Mekorot.
Further expansion continued into the 2020s, including new infrastructure to transfer desalinated water into the Sea of Galilee to stabilise national reserves during drought conditions.
Major Desalination Plants
Ashkelon Plant
Located along the Mediterranean coast near Gaza, the Ashkelon facility uses reverse osmosis technology and produces approximately 119 million cubic metres annually. It became operational in August 2005 and plays a critical role in supplying water to the national network.
The plant experienced temporary shutdowns in 2016 due to seawater contamination linked to wastewater management issues in Gaza, highlighting its operational vulnerability.
Ashdod Plant
Situated in the northern industrial zone of Ashdod, this facility produces around 100 million cubic metres annually, contributing significantly to Israel’s national water system.
Palmachim Plant
Located near Tel Aviv, the Palmachim facility produces approximately 90 million cubic metres annually. Since its launch in 2007, the plant has undergone multiple expansions to meet rising demand.
Sorek Plant
One of the largest desalination plants globally, the Sorek facility produces around 150 million cubic metres annually. It began operations in 2013 following a construction period that started in 2011, with an investment exceeding 1.4 billion shekels.
Hadera Plant
Built near the Orot Rabin power station, the Hadera plant was once the largest of its kind worldwide. Operational since 2009, it produces approximately 127 million cubic metres annually.
Sorek 2 Plant
Currently under construction, this facility is expected to become the largest desalination plant globally, with an annual output of 200 million cubic metres. Its estimated cost exceeds 2.5 billion shekels and includes a dedicated power station.
Western Galilee Plant
Launched in 2023 near Nahariya, this project aims to address chronic water shortages in northern regions. Once completed, it will produce 100 million cubic metres annually and increase national desalination capacity by approximately 13%.
Strategic Vulnerability
The figures above highlight the critical importance of desalination infrastructure in sustaining water supply across Israel. These facilities provide the majority of potable water used for domestic consumption, agriculture, and industrial activity.
Any disruption to this system would represent a severe strategic setback, particularly given the instability of alternative water sources.
This reality raises a pressing question within Israeli strategic circles. Could the ongoing war escalate into a “water war” targeting desalination infrastructure on both sides?
With Benjamin Netanyahu maintaining an aggressive war posture and with Iran demonstrating a consistent policy of reciprocal retaliation, the possibility of such escalation cannot be dismissed.
A War Entering Uncharted Territory
Recent developments suggest that the conflict may be moving into a more dangerous phase, where critical civilian infrastructure becomes a primary target. The coming days and weeks are likely to determine whether this trajectory materialises.
What is clear is that the answers will not emerge through official statements, but through events unfolding on the battlefield, where the scope of the conflict may expand far beyond its current limits.
