The latest war has placed the United States and the Israeli occupation at a critical crossroads, with three primary scenarios confronting US President Donald Trump: ending the war, escalating it, or attempting to reach some form of agreement with Iran.
According to a report published by the Hebrew newspaper Haaretz, prepared by Raviv Drucker, Washington is now navigating a set of high stakes decisions that will define the next phase of the conflict. The report outlines that Trump must choose between de escalation, further military escalation, or pursuing a negotiated outcome.
Military Outcomes and Strategic Damage
The report states that the recent conflict, referred to as the “Twelve Day War”, saw the Natanz nuclear facility destroyed for the second time, alongside renewed strikes on the plutonium reactor in Arak. This comes despite prior assertions from the US intelligence chief that Iran had not attempted to resume its nuclear programme since the previous war.
Haaretz also noted that the Israeli military had earlier announced, during what it described as Operation “Am Kalavi”, that it had inflicted significant damage on Iran’s defence industries. According to the report, Iran now retains only between 100 and 150 launch platforms following extensive bombardment.
The Most Dangerous Scenario
The newspaper warned that the worst case scenario would involve Iran emerging from the war militarily weakened but under a more hardline leadership, continuing its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Such an outcome would elevate the level of global threat rather than diminish it.
Expanding Crisis Into the Energy Sector
The crisis has extended beyond military dimensions into the global energy sector. The head of the International Energy Agency described the situation last week as the most severe in modern history.
Haaretz reported that multiple countries have already begun experiencing the consequences, including the adoption of four-day work weeks, reductions in public lighting, and a shift towards remote work. Egypt is facing a severe energy crisis, while the occupation state is also affected, particularly following damage to a gas field in Qatar, which is expected to take months to repair.
Iran’s Deterrence and Strategic Pressure
The report emphasised that Iran has demonstrated an ability to deter major global powers from directly harming it. It added that any perception of the war as a miscalculated Israeli move would place significant political pressure on the United States, with the likelihood of blame being directed towards the occupation, especially given perceived limitations in US strategic capacity.
Escalation Options on the Table
Haaretz outlined several escalation pathways available to Trump. These include targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure and cutting electricity supplies to Tehran, launching a direct ground operation, or attempting to seize Kharg Island and control the Strait of Hormuz.
The report added that the option of presenting a symbolic agreement with Iran remains the least likely scenario.
Risks of Declaring Victory
The report concluded that declaring victory and ending the war could ultimately transform the conflict into a strategic failure, particularly as the stated objective was to weaken Iran’s threat. This aligns with statements from Benjamin Netanyahu regarding ambitions to bring about regime change in Iran.
It further noted that the consequences of escalation remain unpredictable. However, it is evident that Netanyahu has succeeded in drawing the United States into a war with Iran under the current administration, placing the alliance with Trump under the influence of personal calculations, despite the significant economic repercussions expected to impact the occupation and the standard of living of its population for years to come.
