Iran’s use of low-cost suicide drones, particularly the Shahed series, has emerged as one of the most disruptive and effective tools reshaping modern warfare in the region. These drones have become a central component of Tehran’s strategy, enabling it to exert pressure over critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, while challenging the military dominance of the United States and Gulf states.
Rather than relying on traditional military superiority, Iran has shifted toward asymmetric warfare built on affordability, scalability, and persistence. This transformation reflects a broader evolution in conflict dynamics, where technological sophistication and high-cost weaponry no longer guarantee battlefield advantage.
Cheap Production, Strategic Disruption
According to analysis published by The New York Times, Iran’s Shahed drones are designed for low-cost, rapid production using simple commercial components. This decentralised manufacturing model allows production to continue even under sustained military pressure, as drones can be assembled in small, dispersed workshops that are difficult to detect or target.
This reality undermines the perceived effectiveness of strikes on Iranian drone facilities. Even when specific sites are destroyed, production can quickly resume elsewhere. Experts cited in the report indicate that Iran is not only capable of sustaining output during wartime but may even increase production levels.
Although the number of drones launched daily has dropped from approximately 400 at the start of the conflict to between 70 and 90, the ability to maintain consistent attacks remains a major strategic challenge for targeted states, including Israel and Gulf countries.
A War of Attrition, Not Direct Confrontation
Iran’s strategy does not aim for decisive conventional battles. Instead, it focuses on exhausting adversaries by targeting air defence systems and critical infrastructure. The geographical proximity between Iran and Gulf states further enhances the effectiveness of these drones, reducing response times and increasing the likelihood of successful strikes.
Despite the interception of many drones by advanced defence systems, some still penetrate these layers, exposing a key vulnerability. The imbalance between the low cost of drones and the high cost of intercepting them places significant financial and operational strain on defending forces.
Estimates of Iran’s drone stockpile range from several thousand to tens of thousands, raising further concerns about the sustainability of defensive systems. There are also warnings that Russian support, particularly in mass drone production, could further strengthen Iran’s capacity to sustain this form of warfare.
Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War
A separate analysis by The Wall Street Journal highlights how Iran is actively applying lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine, particularly in the use of drones as a central battlefield tool.
Experts warn that any US ground or naval forces deployed in the Gulf would become immediate targets for drone attacks. Unlike the Ukrainian battlefield, where counter-drone measures have evolved rapidly, US forces are still considered underprepared at the vehicle and unit level.
Military cooperation between Russia and Iran has played a critical role in transferring expertise. Iran has benefited from Russian experience in scaling drone production, including long-range Shahed variants, as well as exposure to emerging technologies such as maritime drones.
While Iran’s capabilities in naval drones remain less advanced than Ukraine’s, their deployment in confined environments like the Strait of Hormuz could prove highly effective, particularly against warships and oil tankers.
Strategic Blind Spots
The report also highlights what some experts describe as US “military overconfidence” in overlooking the significance of these evolving warfare dynamics.
Despite maintaining superiority in intelligence and long-range weaponry, analysts warn that this may not be sufficient to counter the growing drone threat, especially those resistant to electronic jamming. The modern battlefield is shifting rapidly, and Iran, with Russian backing, appears to be adapting faster than the United States.
Could the US Homeland Be Targeted?
A separate analysis published in Foreign Policy by John Haltiwanger explores whether Iran could extend its drone capabilities to target US territory.
The article references a warning issued by the Federal Bureau of Investigation to California law enforcement regarding the potential launch of drones from vessels off the West Coast. However, the report stresses that this information remains unconfirmed, and US officials, including Donald Trump, have downplayed the likelihood of an imminent threat.
Learning from Past Failures
Despite the absence of concrete intelligence, experts emphasise the importance of preparedness. They warn against repeating past failures, such as the inability to anticipate the attacks of September 11 attacks.
Security analyst Colin Clarke argues that emerging threats like drone warfare require a broader and more adaptive security mindset.
Drones present unique challenges due to their ease of operation, remote control capabilities, long-range potential, and difficulty in detection and tracking.
A Maritime Threat and Proxy Risks
Drone expert James Patton Rogers highlights that smaller drone systems can be concealed in shipping containers and launched from sea, allowing them to travel significant distances.
While the United States possesses advanced defensive systems, questions remain about their ability to withstand sustained or repeated attacks, particularly given limitations in interceptor missile stockpiles. Air defence systems, while effective, are not impenetrable, as demonstrated in recent conflicts across the Middle East.
The Shahed-136 drone, in particular, stands out as one of Iran’s most lethal tools due to its low cost and destructive capability. It can be launched from simple platforms such as trucks or ships, increasing its operational flexibility.
Although its range does not allow direct launches from Iran to strike the US mainland, experts suggest that this limitation could theoretically be bypassed through forward deployment, such as launches from nearby vessels.
The More Likely Scenario
A more plausible threat scenario involves the use of commercially available drones, modified for attacks within US territory. According to Clarke, the real danger lies not in Iran’s high-end capabilities, but in its potential to recruit or inspire actors to use widely available technologies in ways that are difficult to trace back to Tehran.
This decentralised threat model complicates deterrence and accountability, making it harder to respond effectively.
Strategic Focus: Pressure Through Hormuz
Despite growing concerns about long-range threats, the analysis concludes that Iran’s current focus is not on attacking the US mainland. Instead, it is concentrating on exerting pressure through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery through which approximately 20 percent of global energy supplies pass.
By leveraging low-cost drones in a high-impact strategy, Iran is not only challenging traditional military hierarchies but also redefining how power is projected and contested in modern warfare.
