Closing the Strait of Hormuz is considered the primary strategic tool that Iran can use against the United States and its Gulf allies, and it has already begun to employ this tool. Israeli analyst Ron Ben-Yishai noted in a report for the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth that shutting the strait threatens major economies in Asia and Europe, as nearly one fifth of their energy consumption passes through it, including Iranian oil.
Ben-Yishai added that around 10 percent of China’s oil needs come at very low prices, or what can be described as smuggling, from Iran, despite strict US sanctions that prohibit Tehran from exporting oil and gas.
India also receives a significant portion of the liquefied gas it requires, primarily for household use and cooking, from Gulf countries such as Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, and others.
Ben-Yishai pointed out that European economic experts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for just a few weeks, oil prices could rise to 140 dollars per barrel, potentially causing a global economic slowdown and weakening growth across most European Union countries. If the blockade continues for more than a few weeks, it is expected to inflict real damage on global economic growth.
The Israeli analyst noted that the blockade also harms Gulf states, which benefit from rising energy prices but are forced to reduce oil production due to their inability to export it, as their storage facilities are already full.
Ben-Yishai confirmed that the United States does not suffer directly from energy shortages due to its relative energy independence. However, rising oil prices increase gasoline and diesel costs at US fuel stations by approximately 40 cents per gallon, which poses a challenge for US President Donald Trump, who had promised to lower prices ahead of the midterm elections.
He also indicated that the Iranians are acting with calculated strategy, as the selective closure of the strait reduces economic damage on themselves while preserving their international image. They target oil and gas tankers attempting to pass through, except those heading to China and India, which receive Chinese political and intelligence support, along with promises of reconstruction assistance after the war. Meanwhile, India has refused to join the US-led maritime coalition to secure its tankers’ passage, despite Iranian threats.
Ben-Yishai highlighted that Iran does not need significant effort to close the strait, which is 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point and contains only two shipping lanes for heavy oil tankers. Iran also controls seven strategic islands, enabling it to deploy a wide range of tools against any vessel attempting to pass, including coastal and ballistic missiles, naval mines, attack boats, drones, manned and unmanned submarines, and other methods.
At present, Iran is acting cautiously, targeting some oil tankers with suicide drones to demonstrate seriousness, while avoiding the use of missiles and attack boats in order to protect its own oil exports.
Regarding US options to confront the situation, Ben-Yishai outlines three main paths:
The first is using Kharg Island as a strategic pressure point, where about 90 percent of Iran’s exported oil is loaded. Approximately 2,200 US Marines could be deployed after striking military installations to seize the island. However, this option could provoke devastating retaliatory attacks by Iran on oil facilities in the Gulf and on Washington’s Arab allies.
The second is escorting convoys of oil tankers through the strait. This option, considered the most likely based on military advice, would allow temporary passage without direct escalation or significant human losses. However, it requires complex naval and aerial preparations and may take several weeks to implement.
The third is a large-scale military operation to seize the entire Iranian coastline and the seven islands, with the aim of neutralising all sources of threat. This would be an extremely large operation with a high risk of casualties and could lead to prolonged military entanglement similar to what occurred in Iraq.
Ben-Yishai noted that Trump is seeking to utilise the second option with participation from NATO forces, particularly with the presence of British, French, and German mine-sweeping vessels, which could allow the operation to begin within one to two weeks.
He stressed that if the strait remains closed for an additional month and a half, it could push the global economy toward recession. As a result, Trump is pressuring European countries to participate, while European and Asian states remain hesitant due to fears of being drawn into a regional war they did not initiate.
Ben-Yishai concluded his report by affirming that Iran remains a capable power able to confront the United States and impose its will on its neighbours, utilising a combination of military and economic pressure. Any US move to reopen the strait would require carefully calculated steps to avoid a destructive escalation on both military and economic fronts.
Germany and France explicitly rejected Trump’s request, while European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated that member states are not prepared to deploy their fleets to the strait.
