The international scene appears closer than ever to a moment of profound historical transformation. The ongoing war in the Middle East, the escalating tension between Israel, the United States, and Iran, and the accompanying confusion in Israeli decision-making alongside hesitation in the American strategic vision all signal a broader political and strategic crisis. Events are no longer interpreted solely through the balance of military power, but within a deeper context related to the erosion of the political and moral authority of the powers that have led the international system since the end of the Second World War.
In the Israeli case, it has become clear that the war that was intended to restore the deteriorating image of deterrence after Gaza produced the opposite result. Israel entered a cycle of military, political, and moral crises that exposed the fragility of the foundations upon which the concept of “absolute superiority” was built. For the first time in decades, the international community is witnessing a wide debate over the legitimacy of Israeli conduct and the limits of military power in imposing political realities. The humanitarian tragedies endured by civilians in Gaza and elsewhere are no longer passing news items, but have become part of a global moral reckoning over policies of force.
The Israeli crisis cannot be separated from the American one. The United States, which long presented itself as the natural leader of the international order, has found itself drifting behind short-sighted policies, particularly in managing tensions with Iran. Policies pursued during the administration of Donald Trump, marked by impulsiveness and the absence of a coherent strategic vision, pushed the region toward the brink of a broader confrontation without offering a clear understanding of its consequences. It increasingly appeared that the world’s most powerful state was acting through reaction rather than leadership.
A striking historical paradox emerges here. The state that once portrayed itself as the guardian of an international system built on law and human rights is now viewed by large segments of the world as incapable of defending those values and even accused of undermining them. The failure to protect civilians, the inability to enforce respect for international law, and the stark contradiction between rhetoric and practice have all contributed to the erosion of what may be called the United States’ “moral authority”.
This erosion of authority is not merely a matter of propaganda but a fundamental factor in the survival and stability of states. The historian Ibn Khaldun explained this in his theory of the rise and fall of states. He linked the strength of a state to what he called asabiyyah, meaning social cohesion and political legitimacy. States reach the peak of their strength when authority is balanced with justice and when a form of solidarity exists between ruler and ruled. When power becomes merely a tool of domination, and the state loses its capacity to establish justice, it gradually enters a stage of weakness and decline.
Understanding the regional landscape is also incomplete without examining the Iranian role. After the invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003, Iran found itself facing a historic opportunity to expand its regional influence. Tehran chose to build its project through expansion amid conflict rather than through stability. At that moment, it appeared that Iran was achieving significant strategic gains across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, benefiting from the vacuum left by American wars.
Yet what appeared to be rapid expansion also contained the seeds of a prolonged crisis. Instead of transforming Iranian influence into a regional project built on stability and development, it often became associated with networks of militias and internal conflicts. In Iraq, sectarian competition and overlapping interventions weakened the state rather than strengthening it. In Syria, the war evolved into a massive humanitarian tragedy that drained all parties. In Yemen and Lebanon, internal conflicts tied to regional polarisation deepened political and economic crises.
Thus, after two decades of regional expansion, Iran found itself facing a complex equation: broad geographic influence accompanied by immense political, economic, and security burdens. This recalls what American historian Paul Kennedy described in his well-known study on imperial overstretch, when a state extends beyond its economic and political capacity to manage its external influence.
Nevertheless, history will record that the Gaza Strip was the first to shatter the aura surrounding Israel, not only through its resilience in the face of the longest war of extermination but also through its steadfast refusal to leave its land even while it lay devastated. In doing so, it exposed the true nature of this entity as a brutal occupying power. History will also record Iran as the first state from the developing world to confront the United States directly, benefiting from the strategic vacuum created by the mistakes of major powers. The confrontation has thus moved beyond a limited regional conflict and become a reflection of a broader struggle over political and moral authority within the international order.
Great powers do not collapse suddenly because of a single military defeat. Their decline usually begins with the erosion of their political and moral legitimacy in the eyes of others.
The most painful paradox, however, is that at a historical moment when the region is undergoing dramatic transformations, the Arab world appears unable even to convene or formulate a unified position. While global balances of power shift, the official Arab system remains trapped in division and stagnation, as though it exists outside the historical time in which other nations are moving.
It may also be worth recalling that the voice of victims will remain more powerful than all political and occupation statements. The Syrian child carried by the waters of the Mediterranean, bearing in his eyes the tragedy of humanity and promising to complain to God about a silent world, will not forgive that silence. Nor will the faces of Gaza’s children be forgotten as they die from hunger amid siege and bombardment, deprived of the most basic rights of life. Every moral violation and every drop of blood spilled without cause is recorded in the ledger of history and will not pass without a price to be paid.
This painful lesson reminds us that power without justice and authority without mercy are nothing more than a fast road toward collapse. Nations and empires, no matter how great they appear, remain bound by their ethics and their relationship with humanity. The child who cannot find food and the human being deprived of dignity remain living testimony that history does not forget, and that accountability ultimately arrives for all who betray justice and humanity.
