Indicators are increasing that a wide military escalation may unfold in Lebanon amid large Israeli military mobilisations and expectations of a ground operation in the coming days.
In this context, Lebanese military expert Brigadier General Bassam Yassin discussed possible confrontation scenarios, pointing to Israeli preparations for a ground invasion while Hezbollah relies on guerrilla warfare tactics and patience in battle.
Yassin told Al Jazeera Mubasher that field indicators suggest Israel is preparing for a large-scale military operation in Lebanon.
He added that it is clear there is planning for a major military campaign in Lebanon, pointing to the mobilisation of six military divisions, including two armoured divisions considered among the most important regular formations in the Israeli army.
He continued that these forces are currently positioned along the Lebanese border in both offensive and defensive formations. He noted that current movements may pave the way for intensified ground operations across multiple axes in southern Lebanon ahead of a potential invasion.
According to Brigadier General Bassam Yassin, weather conditions in Lebanon this week may not be suitable for carrying out major military operations, which could push Israel to delay any large ground assault until the end of next week.
Guerrilla Warfare
Regarding Hezbollah’s ability to confront a possible Israeli ground invasion, the military expert said the group has prepared for this scenario based on guerrilla warfare tactics, stressing that this form of combat does not rely on fixed territorial defence.
He added that it is mistaken to assume that Israel’s entry into Lebanese territory would mean victory.
He said Israel may enter, but Hezbollah’s guerrilla tactics rely on defensive withdrawal and inflicting major losses on the enemy.
Yassin explained that the party’s strategy is based on holding ground when necessary, while withdrawing and manoeuvring when battlefield conditions require it.
He continued: “Hezbollah relies on patience and a prolonged battle in order to inflict heavy losses on the Israeli army and shift the balance within the Israeli home front.”
Regarding Hezbollah’s missile capabilities, Brigadier General Bassam Yassin said long-range missiles have a limited impact in direct ground battles.
He added that missile launches occur from locations far from the battlefield, from the Bekaa Valley extending toward southern Lebanon, where missile launch centres and bases are located.
The Battles of Khiam
The military expert also spoke about the ongoing battles in the town of Khiam in southern Lebanon, describing them as reflecting the nature of the confrontation if the war expands.
Yassin said the town of Khiam has been under attack for eighteen days, and the resistance still maintains positions across large parts of the city.
He added that this resilience reflects the operational style of Hezbollah’s Radwan forces in fighting inside cities, between residential neighbourhoods and buildings, as well as in rugged terrain.
He noted that when Hezbollah announced it had restored its military capabilities, it was aware of the potential battle scenarios and prepared accordingly, emphasising that an Israeli ground assault would not come as a surprise to the party.
In assessing the Israeli army’s ability to advance inside southern Lebanon, Yassin said Israeli forces are capable of entering Lebanese territory but will face major challenges.
He added that Hezbollah’s armament, its ability to manoeuvre, and the nature of Lebanon’s terrain grant the resistance a relative advantage in ground confrontation.
“Slow Biting” Strategy
Regarding the expected Israeli military approach if a ground operation begins, Brigadier General Bassam Yassin predicted that Israel would adopt a strategy of gradual and slow advancement inside Lebanese territory.
Yassin said the Israeli army will rely on heavy artillery and aerial bombardment, in addition to drones, before slowly advancing on the ground inside Lebanon.
He added that rapid advances and wide breakthroughs could be risky because they expose the flanks of advancing forces.
The military expert also stated that Hezbollah is betting on its ability to achieve battlefield gains that can later be leveraged politically, while Israel seeks to achieve its objectives through territorial advances inside Lebanon and use them as leverage in any potential settlement.
On March 2 of this year, Hezbollah announced the beginning of attacks on Israeli military sites following the launch of a war against Iran by the United States and Israel on February 28, and in response to continued Israeli attacks since the ceasefire agreement at the end of November 2024.
On the same day, Israel expanded its airstrikes to include the southern suburbs of Beirut as well as areas in the south and east of the country, before beginning a limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon on March 3.
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