Has the nuclear threat become closer than ever before? This question is increasingly raised by analysts following the outbreak of war between the United States and Israel against Iran, as global fears intensify over the possibility of a nuclear confrontation that could reshape the world in catastrophic ways.
Amid the erosion of international agreements regulating nuclear arsenals, such as the New START treaty between the United States and Russia, warnings have grown about an accelerating nuclear arms race without meaningful constraints, raising the spectre of disaster.
The concern is not limited to the possibility of nuclear conflict alone, but also the outbreak of a third world war. Alongside the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and its global repercussions, the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has been added to the list of escalating conflicts. Intelligence reports have also spoken about the potential activation of Iranian sleeper cells around the world, a development that could expand the scope of war under the pretext of combating terrorism.
An opinion article in the British newspaper The Guardian warned that the possibility of a third world war, or what it described as a nuclear Armageddon, can no longer be dismissed as mere speculation.
Realistic Scenarios
These warnings have coincided with the strengthening of military deployments by major powers in conflict zones, including China and several European states.
Judith Levine wrote in The Guardian that the prospect of a third world war, or a nuclear Armageddon, is no longer a purely imaginary scenario but has become a pressing reality on the international agenda amid rising tensions since Donald Trump was re elected for a second presidential term.
She noted that the American magazine Newsweek published a report in December 2024 that included a map showing the states in the United States considered the safest places to live during a nuclear war.
The article also cited a previous statement by a senior policy director at the Arms Control and Non Proliferation Center, who said there is truly no safe place from the consequences of nuclear war, including food and water contamination and prolonged exposure to radiation.
Since the start of the joint military operations by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28, discussions about the possibility of a third world war have intensified in policy circles, from research centres at Harvard University to debates across social media.
Levine described the map published by Newsweek as offering little reassurance.
She also pointed out that the economist and public policy expert at Columbia University, Jeffrey Sachs, spoke with Norwegian political scientist Glenn Diesen about current and potential theatres of conflict, from Ukraine to Cuba, stating that humanity may already be in the early days of a third world war.
The Risk of Nuclear War
In contrast, British American historian Niall Ferguson appeared more cautious when asked about the likelihood of a third world war. He responded that the probability of a massive global conflict is not necessarily high, though he acknowledged that the question itself is legitimate given the current geopolitical conditions.
According to The Guardian article, developments on the ground point to an accelerating arms race. China continues to increase its defence spending, while Europe has adopted a more hardline stance on nuclear weapons in response to Russian military moves.
At the same time, France, Britain, and Australia have reinforced their military presence in areas of conflict. Adding to the severity of the situation, according to the writer, are intelligence reports suggesting the possible activation of Iranian sleeper cells across the world, which could serve as justification for expanding the war under the banner of counter terrorism.
Fears have also intensified due to what was described as the unpredictable behaviour of the US president regarding nuclear weapons.
Domestically, Trump launched a programme called the Shield of the Americas, which according to The Guardian could transform anti drug operations in Latin America into a direct military confrontation. The programme reportedly includes offering precision missiles to participating countries while affirming Washington’s readiness to use missile force in the region.
Concerns have also grown due to Trump’s past conduct regarding nuclear weapons, from threats directed at North Korea to his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement in 2018, which left the world facing an increasingly unregulated nuclear arms race.
He also recently allowed the New START treaty with Russia to expire, an agreement that had placed limits and monitoring mechanisms on nuclear warheads.
United Nations Secretary General António Guterres described the current moment as extremely dangerous, warning that the risk of nuclear confrontation has reached its highest level in decades.
Nuclear Winter
Warnings about the possibility of nuclear war have not been limited to experts alone. Levine noted that The Washington Post has even published advice for readers on how to protect their finances in the event of war amid rising fuel prices.
Other American media outlets have also begun publishing guides on how to survive a nuclear winter, treating it almost like preparation for a severe snowstorm, as the Guardian article described.
Meanwhile, the British newspaper The Telegraph reported that a company specialising in the construction of nuclear bomb shelters in the US state of Texas has seen a significant surge in demand for its products.
In explaining the current developments, the owner of the company, whom Levine described as a Christian fundamentalist without naming him, argued that the escalating war against Iran represents a sign of the end times.
Levine concluded that difficult times may invite dark humour, but there is nothing humorous about watching the most powerful person in the world making existential decisions that appear not to trouble him, and may even excite his fascination with death and destruction.
She added that denying the worst possibilities is unacceptable, but surrendering to them is also unacceptable. The last feeling humanity should have toward the end of times, she wrote, is the sense that the outcome has already been sealed.
