The magazine The Economist published a report stating that an operation to seize Iranian uranium would require preparation for what could become the largest military operation in history. The report referenced claims made by US President Donald Trump last year that he had “wiped out” or completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear programme.
The magazine noted that Trump’s claim was difficult to justify, as Iran managed to retain a large portion of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, estimated at about 400 kilograms. This amount is considered sufficient to produce around ten nuclear bombs if further enriched.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated last week: “People will have to go and get it.” According to the report, this would require an unprecedented military operation deep inside Iranian territory. The magazine questioned whether such an operation is even feasible.
The first challenge lies in locating the highly enriched uranium. On 9 February, Rafael Grossi, head of the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency, stated that the uranium is located “mainly” in Isfahan in central Iran, reportedly stored inside tunnels whose entrances were sealed with soil in February. Some remnants are also located at enrichment facilities in Natanz and Fordow, the latter buried deep inside a mountain that was bombed in June of last year. Even if American and Israeli targets were limited to Isfahan, retrieving the uranium would remain extremely difficult.
Chinook helicopters of the US Army’s 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, specifically the MH-47G model, could theoretically reach Isfahan, which lies about 500 kilometres deep inside Iran and far from aircraft carriers in the Arabian Gulf. However, they would require refuelling for the return journey and would also need a paramilitary force to secure the area.
On 7 March, Donald Trump stated that no ground forces would be deployed unless Iran were “exhausted to the point that it cannot fight on the ground.” Achieving this would require the United States to bombard Iranian bases near the target area and deploy airborne forces to seize a nearby airport. Badr Air Base, located roughly 10 kilometres from the nuclear facilities in Isfahan, could serve this purpose. Alternatively, a temporary airstrip could be established. Equipment needed to handle nuclear materials, along with excavators to remove soil and debris from tunnel entrances and other heavy machinery, could then be parachuted in on cargo platforms.
The magazine added that executing such an operation would require at least a full battalion of around 1,000 soldiers to secure the perimeter of the nuclear complex. Continuous air cover would be necessary to detect and strike approaching Iranian forces. Immediate satellite coverage, drones, reconnaissance aircraft and attack aircraft would also be required. This in turn would demand a large fleet of aerial refuelling aircraft to keep sufficient air power in the sky, potentially for several days.
According to the report, Israeli special forces and engineering units may possess more recent and relevant experience for such missions than their American counterparts due to their operations within extensive tunnel networks built by Hamas and Hezbollah. Their involvement would also allow Trump to claim that he did not deploy American ground forces.
However, this would affect Israel’s ability to conduct long range air transport operations. If Israeli forces were used, they would likely need to rely on the massive American airlift fleet. The US Joint Special Operations Command has extensive experience in this field, having spent years preparing contingency plans to secure or seize Pakistan’s nuclear weapons during potential crises.
Squadrons from the US Delta Force and SEAL Team Six have reportedly trained to storm underground bunkers at a site near Las Vegas, assisted by specialised US military nuclear weapons disablement teams.
A former member of the Joint Special Operations Command stated that one of the greatest challenges would be navigation, communication and survival underground. If Trump were serious about invading Isfahan, let alone Natanz and other sites, the forces involved would require months of training.
How Would the Uranium Be Extracted?
Beyond the operational challenges, the report also addressed the issue of how the highly enriched uranium would be extracted.
The radioactive uranium is most likely stored in gaseous form and sealed inside multiple containers designed to prevent accidental chain reactions. Daniel Salisbury from the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates that the full stockpile would require about 19 specialised cylinders.
Cheryl Rofer, a former nuclear researcher at Los Alamos, noted that each cylinder is surrounded by pipes separating it from others. She warned that “special forces teams must understand that the pipe structures must not be removed.”
One option would be to destroy the material on site. Matthew Bunn of Harvard University explained that this would cause uranium hexafluoride gas to disperse everywhere, settling on walls, rocks and debris, making recovery extremely difficult.
Such an explosion would also release toxic hydrogen fluoride gas. Bunn proposed a second option of diluting the material’s concentration, although the required equipment would have to be transported by truck and nuclear materials would likely still remain.
A third option would involve extracting the uranium gas and transporting it by air. However, François Diaz-Maurin, editor of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, warned that if moisture entered the cylinders during transport it could react with the uranium gas to produce toxic uranyl fluoride and hydrofluoric acid gas, potentially triggering an explosion.
The magazine concluded that a Hollywood style military operation might appeal to Trump. He has often spoken about the humiliation felt by Americans of his generation after the 1979 hostage crisis in Tehran. Such an operation could offer him a decisive end to the war and an opportunity to declare victory even if the Iranian regime remained in power.
However, Trump may also recall how a failed attempt to rescue American hostages from the US embassy in Tehran, known as Operation Eagle Claw, contributed to the downfall of President Jimmy Carter. Conducting similar operations in Natanz and Fordow would represent one of the largest raids in military history.
A former Western military chief of staff commented: “There is no doubt the United States is capable of doing it. It may be the only military in the world capable of such an operation. But either it is conducted on a very limited scale and with extreme secrecy, or it is carried out on a large scale that would require occupying that part of Iran and placing it under American control for a period of time.”
