National security and international relations expert Major General Mohamed Abdel Wahid ruled out the possibility that the United States and Israel could seize Iran’s Kharg Island in the near term, stressing that such an operation would require first destroying Iran’s capabilities entirely so that it would no longer retain the ability to respond.
Abdel Wahid, who previously served as a naval officer within the Egyptian forces participating in the 1991 Gulf War, explained that the island lies only about 25 kilometres from the Iranian coast, a distance he describes as “not insignificant,” exposing any American forces involved in a military operation there to serious risks.
Discussion of controlling this small uninhabited island, which covers an area of roughly 20 square kilometres, has been increasing in Western reports and analyses by research centres. The U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies indicated that the administration of President Donald Trump might consider imposing a blockade on Kharg Island or occupying it in order to weaken the Iranian government by cutting off its financial resources.
Kharg Island’s importance lies in the fact that it serves as the primary terminal for Iranian oil exports. Approximately 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports pass through it, according to Abdel Wahid in statements to Al Jazeera Net.
The island also hosts massive oil facilities including huge storage tanks and specialised ports for loading tankers, in addition to industrial installations linked to the energy sector. Seizing the island would therefore immediately halt Iranian oil exports and deprive Tehran of vital revenues worth billions of dollars, according to the national security expert.
Public Statements and Secret Moves
Abdel Wahid distinguishes between two parallel levels of American activity regarding the region.
First, public statements about controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
Second, discussions taking place behind closed doors regarding the possibility of seizing Kharg Island itself.
He explains that in his public remarks, Trump repeatedly speaks about controlling the Strait of Hormuz and deploying naval units to secure commercial shipping in the waterway. At the same time, what he describes as “closed door discussions” occasionally leak information about the possibility of capturing Kharg Island.
According to Abdel Wahid, Trump has repeatedly claimed in recent statements that he has “completely eliminated Iranian naval vessels.” He considers this repetition part of a large psychological warfare campaign and also a signal intended to encourage ships to “dare to pass” through the Strait of Hormuz, since many vessels have refused to cross it amid the tense atmosphere.
The American and Israeli sides justify this direction, Abdel Wahid says, by claiming that oil revenues support “terrorist organisations or the Revolutionary Guard and others.” Therefore, focusing on Kharg Island would deprive Iran of a very large portion of its oil income. Targeting the island would also represent “a response to Iranian attacks and a way to force Iran to surrender or change the regime without the need for a large scale ground invasion.”
Military Complications and High Costs
The international relations expert explains the tactical method by which Kharg Island could theoretically be seized. According to him, the operation would require ground forces to occupy and control the island while being secured by naval units. At the same time, he warns that “the consequences would be extremely costly,” because Iran “would never leave the island in this manner and would strike it with missiles, drones, or artillery.”
Kharg Island lies approximately 55 kilometres northeast of the port of Bushehr and around 15 nautical miles from Iran’s mainland. It belongs to the coral islands of the Arabian Gulf, giving it a distinctive geological nature. However, its proximity also places it within range of Iranian firepower, which explains Abdel Wahid’s warning that such a military operation would expose American forces to major risks.
For this reason, the former Egyptian army officer expects that such an operation would be postponed to “a later stage once Iran has been fully weakened.” Only then, he says, could the United States together with Israel control the island, since the operation would require ensuring that Iran’s capabilities have been completely destroyed so that it would no longer retain the ability to respond.
Another risk highlighted by Abdel Wahid is that Iran might “strike oil facilities throughout the Gulf, particularly in Saudi Arabia,” using the attack as justification. Targeting Kharg Island could therefore push Tehran to expand the conflict by attacking Gulf oil infrastructure, potentially transforming the confrontation into a comprehensive regional war.
From Hormuz to Kharg
Abdel Wahid places the discussion of Kharg Island within a broader strategic context related to American control over maritime routes around the world. Control of the Strait of Hormuz, he says, represents “a strategic American objective aimed at controlling waterways globally, an idea that is central to Trump’s thinking.”
He explains that the American objective in the region is control of maritime routes and chokepoints: control of the Bab al Mandeb Strait, presence in the Arabian Sea, military bases in Djibouti, the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, and the U.S. Central Command base in Qatar. All of these, he says, reflect a comprehensive strategy aimed not only at Iran but also at limiting Chinese influence.
Abdel Wahid also clarifies the strategic difference between controlling Kharg Island and controlling the Strait of Hormuz. “Control of Kharg Island means control of Iranian oil, while control of the Strait of Hormuz means control of the entire Gulf’s oil.”
The distance between Kharg Island and the strait is about 300 nautical miles, approximately 480 kilometres. Controlling the Strait of Hormuz would therefore allow the United States to control both Iranian and Gulf oil because of the passage’s vital importance as the primary corridor for the region’s energy exports.
He adds that control of the Strait of Hormuz does not only mean control over oil but also over the global economy as a whole, since Gulf countries rely on the strait for essential supplies such as food and medicine.
Approximately 21 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day, representing nearly one fifth of global consumption.
China and the Division of Influence
Abdel Wahid notes that “the United States wants to play the oil card and control it,” which in turn intensifies tensions with China. According to him, the central conflict today between China and the United States is reflected in competition over maritime routes, a situation that could place significant pressure on Beijing.
He expects that China “would not accept such a situation unless the United States provides assurances regarding a division of influence and guarantees China’s share of oil supplies.” In that case, he suggests, Beijing might not prioritise the issue. However, if such an arrangement is not reached, American control over the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island could provoke a Chinese response, especially given China’s significant dependence on Iranian oil.
Today Kharg Island is often referred to as the “forbidden island,” not because of mysterious legends but due to the strict security restrictions imposed on it as a result of the major oil facilities located there, which are heavily protected by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard forces.
As the American Israeli war on Iran enters its twelfth day, Kharg Island emerges as one of the most prominent potential flashpoints between the two sides. For Iran, it represents a vital economic lifeline that cannot be relinquished. For Washington and Tel Aviv, it represents a potential pressure point capable of delivering significant strategic gains. At the same time, it represents a highly complex military scenario.
As a result, this scenario is likely to remain postponed to a later phase, when Washington believes that Iran’s capabilities have been completely destroyed, in a war that is entering increasingly critical stages and whose end does not appear imminent, as Abdel Wahid told Al Jazeera Net.
